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Kicker??

 
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Ron
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 12:12 pm    Post subject: Kicker?? Reply with quote

Wonder what happened to last week's kicker implications? Did that die a natural death or is it still in effect? If so, Friday's big move would just be a temporary thing. Maybe a couple more days of up moves before the downtrend resumes and SOX tests its recent lows.
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candlestick1
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Joined: 27 Jun 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 1:39 pm    Post subject: Kickers? Reply with quote

Do not recall the kickers but the Nas and the DOW did show buy signals in the oversold area of the stochastics. They both have come up through the 50 day moving averages and the stochastics have a lot of juice left in them. This would indicate a test of the 200 day MA as the next target. That implies at least a couple of days of further up move before hitting resistance. The semiconductor sector chart has breached the 50 day Ma with good force.
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Ron
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Was referring to your 9/23 newsletter about the kicker: "With the NASDAQ producing a Kicker signal to the downside and the Dow in a severe sell-off, the probabilities point to being short in this market."

I'm still short the semis and did not use stops as I kept getting stopped out. If this is an ongoing bullish trend, I'll wait till the Nas hits 200ma and then it should retrace to 1900 at which point I'll cover and possibly go long. What's frustrating is the market can't make up its mind which direction to take and I keep getting caught on the wrong side.
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candlestick1
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 2:51 pm    Post subject: short this market Reply with quote

That is exactly what the candlestick signals can do for you, they keep you from being in on the wrong side of the market. The charts indicate that we are probably going to the 200 day Ma, a high probability, so why go against that, you are making a correct analysis but hoping the next move will be in your favor when we do hit the3 200 day Ma. Get out of the positions and then analysis what is the best route, and it may not be in the semiconductors, it may be in better charts
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ron, you are right about the kicker however perhaps your reference time frame needs adjusting. The kicker of the NAS was running its course but a subsequent signal on 27-28 Sep said the bulls had returned. The 29Sep was a thinking day while traders digested the implications of MRK and since then things are on the up. As the next moving average/trend line/resistance level is approached look for signals but be prepared to accept an earlier "close longs" signal should it appear (the signal may come for reasons that we may never understand beyond "it just happens").
Hope my 2 bobs worth helps
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rhae



Joined: 04 Oct 2004
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 2:17 am    Post subject: signals Reply with quote

Probably look at more signals than I need to. But always looking for that edge.

Agree completely about candlesticks and stochastics. But I have added one more.... That is the horrizontal resistance and support levels on the daily chart.... not just plain old r&s levels but their strengths too... Determined by the number of touches and strength by volume accumulation/ distributions as they moved through the levels...... so are the r&s levels weak or strong? Which often hints how easily they may be breached.....
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candlestick1
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 10:35 am    Post subject: signals Reply with quote

Yes, use the candlestick signals to tell you what is happening in investor sentiment, then use any other technical analysis to see if the signal is being formed at a support or resistance level that would be obviously seen by other technical investors
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Ron
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 04, 2004 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, abbo. Yes my time frame needs adjusting. I covered my semi shorts (ouch!!) and am now long the semis. Also RSAS and ISSX (computer security--Steve mentioned it's a strong sector). When is it time to go short again? The stochastics are in the overbought area and the charts look like it's time for a pullback.
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