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ORCL
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:39 pm    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

Just reading the article about Oracle's bid over People Soft, and find the Oracle's daily chart very interesting. Would the chart tells us that prices might retreat to its 52wk's low around $9 Question

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redlite
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's hit its 200ma after gapping up. The Nas also gapped up but is below 200ma. Do you think the bears will move in next week?
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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Location: Chile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2004 3:08 pm    Post subject: redlite... Reply with quote

I am hoping to get some insight from candlestick1...however, just by looking at the chart, the bearish engulfing right below 200ema, and stoc. just crossed below 80, I think 200ema which is around $12 is a strong resistance.
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candlestick1
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Joined: 27 Jun 2004
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 01, 2004 4:26 pm    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

I am looking at a daily chart and mine looks different than this onw, today ORCL closed right at the 200 day MA, and it still has juice left in the stochastics, in the 70 area and pointing upwards. I would suspect another $1 in the price based upon the first move before the gap up and consolidation. If it opens above the 200 day MA, and shows continued strength, can be a buyer
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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Location: Chile

PostPosted: Sat Oct 02, 2004 1:20 am    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

Yes, you are absolutely right...sorry, the previous chart showed the last daily bar for Thursday...here is the closing of ORCL on Friday, Oct. 1.

Perhaps now we could look at 52wk high around $15, as the next target. Assuming stoc. can stay above 70, with no sign of price reversal pattern Idea

If prices targeting $15, it would be nice to see a daily volume of 40mil or more(since the avg. daily volume for this stock is 45mil).

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candlestick1
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Joined: 27 Jun 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 1:51 pm    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

A breakout above the 200 day Ma would give this price alot of room to move
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was wondering why you use a 3 day charting display of ORCL rather than a daily graph? The candle signals could be significantly different between the two charts I would have thought
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candlestick1
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 03, 2004 9:20 pm    Post subject: three day Reply with quote

any daily combination may work, I use the one day, but if you want to trade longer term you can use thre day or other day combos. Just make a study of them first to see which ones correlate with a true trend
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 8:22 am    Post subject: signals Reply with quote

Well, this week prices managed to close above 200ema with a strong bullish engulfing bar, but the last bar at Friday's closing looks like a spinning top/shooting star! It looks bearish though, and might cause the prices to retrace back perhaps to 50ema at $11. However the Stoch still looks strong.

This is my observation, and any other ideas are welcome.

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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 4:19 pm    Post subject: Oracle Reply with quote

I have had Steve’s book for about 2 ˝ years now and for the first year or so I did ok on my trades about 50 to 55% winning trades. I was watching for the signal and then making sure the Sto’s were in the correct area over bought or over sold. For the last year I have increased my winning trades to about 70%. I know this may sound high but its true. The only thing I change is, I started using the MACD (12,26,6 standard settings) and used it as the conformation signal. As an example the Oracle trade you are talking about is a very good one. Looking at the charts posted if you will add the MACD you will see that when the sto’s were above 80 just before the big gap up the MACD shows no sign of turning down and the two lines are still a good distance apart. To me that is a very good signal that we are not at or very near the top, regardless of the candle. This is evident by the short drop and then a continuation of the up trend. These are the trades that I use to buy the puts on and then get stopped out right away. On Oracle I would wait to get a conformation candle on Monday and see what effect it had on MACD the sto’s will continue down with any moderate day Monday but if the stock is going to continue up or wonder around at about current value you will not see the MACD confirm a move down. I know that the MACD is a lagging indicator but has sure helped me with entries and exits timing.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 6:24 pm    Post subject: n7kon Reply with quote

Yes, I checked the macd, and as you mentioned there was no sign of drop during the gap up...so the logic is: candle signals are effective only if confirmed by the stoch(and in your case, macd). In the case of ORCL, eventhough there was a reversal pattern(the last bar), but the combination of stoch/macd indicates that prices are in overbought territory without any sign of turnover(also no sign of drop in macd), therefore the reliability of any reversal signal is very low.

Very interesting indeed...I mentioned in my previous post that the 52wk high at $15 could be the possible target.

As you said, let's wait for the candle on Monday.

Thanks for your insight.
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stickman
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:24 pm    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

I use StockCharts.com for my charts and my Chart of ORCL is similar to the one posted but not quite the same?
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stickman
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 10:36 pm    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

I just figured out why my chart is different from the one posted. Your chart is a 3 day chart and I have a 1 day chart called up. Sorry for the confusion.
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rhae



Joined: 04 Oct 2004
Posts: 3

PostPosted: Sat Oct 09, 2004 11:39 pm    Post subject: ORCL Reply with quote

Looks like you guys have the candlesticks and indicators covered very well. I will throw in another one... The daily horizontal range ... First of all price stopped very close to an old critical resistance 12.15.. so depending on market conditions price could move up to the next resistance of 12.47 or if things continue nasty ( for bulls) then 11.66 shows as strong support.

12.47 strong resistance
12.15 at old resistance now
11.66 strong support

I like to watch critical R&S levels, because something usually happens as they approach or pass through those levels..... often volitily picks up.

But Friday the price just stopped. We know about doji's so that would seem a logical place for a pause.
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candlestick1
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 10, 2004 2:18 pm    Post subject: Doji in ORCL Reply with quote

The long legged doji, opening and closing below the open of the previous days candle, is an indicator that the trend is fizzling
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