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ADBE

 
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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Sat Jan 01, 2005 11:02 pm    Post subject: ADBE Reply with quote

Any thoughts on ADBE, Looks like a triple top with a support line of $60. Sto’s and RSI are showing bearish signs of lower lows.
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tab321
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 7:19 pm    Post subject: ADBE Reply with quote

n7

I can see the triple top you are speaking of and I agree that support is around 60 where the 50 MA is. It is easy to read a bearish scenario in this stock but until it really confirms that its uptrend is broken....I would not short it. It could easily bounce up from the 60 dollar level. Of course, if the market turns sour - I am sure it will correct pretty easily.

This is sort of a hard call for me. There are times when buying on strength works and times when it does not work. I am still trying to figure out how to detect the market condition that allows for buying on strength.

For instance...in December 2003, you could take any roaring stock and buy it on a pullback....and it would make you money. Stochs stayed pegged to the roof on some stocks. Yet, after mid-January 2004....buying on strength got to be costly.

So - if we are in a strong market, ADBE could be just a pullback that will continue to soar. If the market turns weak, this pullback could easily be the beginning of a nice correction.

Hey - send me an email to tab321@yahoo.com so I will have your email address.

TBeard
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ADBE has been in a strong uptrend since late july. I do not see a true candlestick sell signal and in any event with such a strong trend there would need to be a strong signal to trade against this trend. STOs not significantly oversold nor is the price a profitable enough margin from the 50MA.
I would want to see ADBE break the uptrend line from July before thinking about a short however if it does then the divergence showing up in the stochastic peaks would add as a short confirmation
If you wish to get really technical then we could be on the third leg of a small head and shoulders (3dec,14dec,29dec) which would be confirmed by trading below the shoulders ($59-$60 mark) which is also around the 50MA.
I would not short this one yet. Hope this adds to your analysis
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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Sun Jan 02, 2005 9:22 pm    Post subject: ADBE Reply with quote

Thanks guys for the response to the question. I really did not plan on shorting or buying a put on ADBE. I just wanted to see if I was reading this correctly and if you thought the support would be around 60. I have been doing Bull Put Spreads on ADBE for several months. Just getting a little gun shy with these signals will see if I can get a spread at 50/55 and see if there is any money in it down there. Again thanks for the great responses; it really helps to get second opinions.
Email is n7kon@hotmail.com
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