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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scooter, I try to follow the trend and not just a few days of trading. As I have posted I like volume and action. I try to figure out why a stock is down and if there is no bad news I can find and the trend is still up I do sometimes buy more. I bought more TAG today @ 1.09. Why did it start moving? I don't know but somebody knows something I don't or they wouldn't be buying it. This all started around 8/21. The first move was around 80 to 90 percent. The next move should be this much or more. The trend is up. ARNA started trending up around the 27th of July. Where is it going? I don't know. My target is $13.80. At the close today I am down .09. I think most of these down days on the up trending stocks are the traders, market makers, hedge funds ect. running these stocks down over the stops and then they are buying them. Thanks for allowing me to share. Each of us has to develope our own game plan and go with it. Each trader, or investor has to find what works for them. Don't let others tell you what to buy. This is a highly skilled business.
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the insight into your trading system, Harry.

One more question, if you don't mind. Even though you have bought during a valley in an uptrend and the likelihood is that the uptrend will continue, there is always the possibility that a new, long downtrend could be beginning (all good things must eventually come to an end). With that in mind, do you have an absolute number in mind that is the worst percentage loss you will take -- an iron-clad stop loss, if you will? Or would you watch the action/volume and detemine that the trend is now moving against you and get out at that point, whatever that percentage happens to be? I'm just curious.

Thanks,
Scooter
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scooter, knowing when to get out is hard. If you look at the chart for AEOS I make an expensive mistake last week by getting out and taking a $3.50 profit. Today the stock is a dollar higher than where I got out. It is still going up. I have the 9, 20, 50 & 100 moving averages set on default on my charts. It had one down day and did not get back down to the 9. I like to use the 50 if the averages are seperated. Some of the things to look for in a top are long legged duji, lizards, evening star, the stock goes up on down volume. When I go to seeing indecision it makes me start looking to get out. Most of the time a stock will bounce off one of the moving averages giving you time to get out. I try to buy pull backs. I have not had much success buying breakouts. Every body with a computer is waiting for a breakout. Most of the time the herd is wrong. One thing about a trend is higher highs and lower lows. Until you see this it is not in a trend. Fear and greed is what is making this market crazy. I think with skilled chart reading you can take most of the emotions out. I hope I haven't confused you. You have to let the money take care of it self. Happy trading
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, Harry. No, you have not confused me. I'm with ya. I couldn't agree more regarding when to enter. Hard to make any money chasing the big breakouts.

One thing, though. What is a lizard? Haven't heard that one before!

Also, you said, "One thing about a trend is higher highs and lower lows." Don't you mean "higher highs and higher lows"?

Scooter
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Fri Sep 08, 2006 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are right. It is higher lows. Here are two examples I have been taught about lizards. A lizard is a candlestick signal with an extra long tail. Take a look at OCN. About a week back on two days in a row the candlestick signal had a long tail that almost touched the 50 period moving average. It is now headed back up. Also take a look at MFB. Its run may be almost over. Three day ago it had a duji followed by a lizard at the top of a signal the next day. The last two days it has been down. These are two stocks on my watch list. I don't own either one. If I did own MfB I would already be out. Very Happy
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