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NFLX
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:21 pm    Post subject: NFLX Reply with quote

I'm a bit hesitant to mention any stocks as my picks haven't done so hot in the last couple weeks, but I thought NFLX looked interesting after the last few days (bullish engulfing followed by two consecutive gap-ups) and took a position this morning.

I would feel a little more comfortable if there was some volume to confirm the reversal, but there seems to be a definite change in sentiment at least for the short term. Today was a doji so it will be interesting to see what it does tomorrow. The 20 SMA waits ahead at around 19.80. If it can break through that, it could make a significant move. Remains to be seen, though, whether this is a true reversal.

Scooter
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rm



Joined: 05 Apr 2006
Posts: 140

PostPosted: Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not getting to post as much as I want to these days, but I still check in everyday to see what's up.

I'm glad you put this one up, even if it doesn't go it still keeps the forum going and it makes me look at the chart and keep learning.

Even when I decide I'm not interested in one I've still had to analyze why I don't want it.

It definately makes for better reading than just "hey, what's up guys." Smile

rm
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Definitely looks like a reversal is in progress. NFLX gapped up again today (3rd time in a row), gaining 3.77% and pushing clear through the 20 SMA on very good volume. Finally, a pick I can be proud of. Very Happy

Scooter
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This one showed some weakness after the open today, thus I think it has run out of gas, at least in the short term. So I closed out my position at $20 for a total gain of 3.6%.

Scooter
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rm



Joined: 05 Apr 2006
Posts: 140

PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree, right now it's much more pleasing and I believe a good discipline exercise to take the profit when it begins to ease down.

It's much easier to get back in afterwards if I'm still interested.

I prefer the probability way rather than the I hope way, and then if it does shoot up strong I can then regain my senses and know that I judged it correctly to begin with.
Just because I took my profits doesn't mean I made a wrong call by getting out.

It could always go the other way if I hang on too long Rolling Eyes and that emotion is much harder to deal with.

And I would much rather take some profit and then study what comes afterwards while still in my early trading years because as time goes on I'll be able to hang onto the right ones longer.

rm
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the thoughts, rm. Well said. What's the old saying -- "One bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" or something like that? I think I am starting to learn to take what the market is willing to give me and not try to impose on a particular stock what *I* think should happen. If the market dictates that a stock's momentum is slowing, I need to accept it and take the profits (whatever they be) at that point.

I think it could be very helpful, both for ourselves and others here, if we posted more of our trades -- our entries and exits and exactly what we were thinking while holding the stock. I think it could be quite beneficial, especially if we post not only the successes but also the failures. I know it's difficult to admit our losses, but it's helpful to analyze where they went wrong and whether we reacted properly to their movement after buying them.

I'll be the first to throw out an example. I recommended people take a look at MED and gave the reasoning. Well, I know you (rm) and probably some others made some money in that one. But would you believe I actually lost big in it? I initially bought in at 12.11, I believe. Well, on the day I bought it, it went up to $12.25, so I was sitting pretty good after day one. No problems. I had my stop set more generously than normal at $11.25. I don't even remember my thinking on that, but I wanted to give it a little room to work. To my horror the stock gapped down the very next morning at open to $11.08 or sometihng like that, and my stop order was filled at $11.15. I took nearly an 8% loss on it. Ouch! Well, of course it worked its way back up some that day. And then the next day it shot up about 8% and was well above my entry. I never got back into it after my loss. What do you do in a situation like that? I am a firm believer in stop losses, but in that instance it probably hurt me. Truthfully I am not sure what I would do differently if I had to do it over. If anyone has any advice, I'm all ears.

Happy trading, all.

Scooter
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is what I have been doing and it has been working. I know this is not for everyone and you won't find it in the books. I first heard Steve mention about taking a one half position on certain situations. I have had some good success with it. I was about to pull my hair out when this same thing kept happening to me over and over. I have a mentor in Chicago and he had no answers either. Some of the hedge fund people or the market makers are doing this to take out all the stops before they start buying. We all have read the same books so it is common knowledge that the stops are around the 5 to 6 percent area. You have to have good chart knowledge and know you have a strong position. I am very careful about taking a position. Your entry level is the key to making money. I try to estimate how much of a drop it will take to run over the stops. I have been taking a half position and buy again if they do run it down thru the stops. I then set a stop below my last entry point. I am very selective about doing this. My latest success doing this was last week with AEOS. I bought a half poisition at $37.03 on the 23rd. I bought another half position on the 24th at $36.25. I took a nice $3.50 profit yesterday. I would not do this if I was not on top of the news and understood the charts. I hope this helps. Smile
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's amazing, Harry. Great trade. I just don't know that I would have the guts to pull that off. Weren't you worried at all on the 25th when it got down to $35.39 (about 4.5% from your initial entry)?

I guess you are more confident in your chart reading ability than I. If I saw those two dark candles on the 24th and 25th, I would have just assumed that I guessed wrong on that stock and would have been looking for an exit.

Please post again the next time you do a play such as this (perhaps during the trade itself) so we can follow along. I am very interested to see further how well it works.

Cheers,
Scooter
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:38 pm    Post subject: possible Tues. position Reply with quote

Scooter, I have several on my watch list that could be real nice next week. Of course you never know what is going to happen once the market opens, but here is one that I am looking at. IHR if it pulls back to 9.85, which is the 50 pma, I would like to buy a half position with another buy in at 9.35. I would have a hard stop at 9.19. I always let the market come to me. I never chase it. If the trade makes great. If not it wasn't meant to be. I put buy orders in and take them as they come to me. Sometimes nothing happens and sometimes my money is tied up. I try to have a plan every week. Sometimes they work out and sometimes they don't. We will watch this together this week and see what happens. Smile
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sounds great, Harry. Thanks.

Scooter
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scooter, you can help me watch my two positions I bought today on this pullback. I got IHR @ $9.89 and TAG @ $1.22. I usually don't post any of my trades until afterwards, but this one time everyone can watch with me. I don't mind if anyone wants to post some feedback. Very Happy
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:46 pm    Post subject: one more thing Reply with quote

I had a buy in for ARNA @ $11.51. I got it at the close.
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harry...

Thanks for sharing these. I am assuming you're long on all of these positions?

Thanks,
Scooter
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rm



Joined: 05 Apr 2006
Posts: 140

PostPosted: Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harry,

I'm interested in IHR, it looks like it's finding nice support at the 50 ma.

I wonder how the markets are going to affect it. It's trending with the dow pretty close.

I'll be looking at it in the morning.

rm
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Scooter



Joined: 02 Jul 2006
Posts: 98

PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2006 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harry,

IHR is doing very well it appears, but TAG (-6.56%) and ARNA (-3.04%) are both hurting. Are you still in both? I am especially interested in how you handled TAG. Did you have a stoploss in place? I see that it got down to around $.90 on Wednesday (down over 26%!). I can't imagine how you had the guts to stay in that trade (if you did). If so, did you average down like you were talking about before?

Scooter
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