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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:43 pm    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

By looking at the 30min. chart, I am not yet convinced that this pair has hit the bottom...the candle signal from the swing low looks more stronger reversal than the swing high. Let's put it into a test:

Short 1.1807 SL 1.1850 TP 1.1740

Note: MACD in 5min. is negative which confirms this trade; however, if it turns positive, I will exit this trade.

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2004 4:27 pm    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

Didn't expect MACD turn positive so fast!

Exited at 1.1813 (-6)

Done for this week.
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candlestick1
Site Admin


Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 503
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Tue Nov 16, 2004 9:36 am    Post subject: us dollar Reply with quote

The US dollar is trying to bottom, it formed a bullish harami yesterday.
Seeing any new strength in the dollar, use the 50 day moving average at your next target
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candlestick1
Site Admin


Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 503
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2004 10:50 am    Post subject: Frank C. where are you Reply with quote

Frank C. where are you?
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 17, 2004 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi candlestick1,

I am still in Paraguay. Took 2 weeks off from trading...need to clear my brain!

Will start trading hopefully by next week.

Cheers.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2004 1:33 pm    Post subject: Back to the wonderful world of Forex... Reply with quote

usd/chf currently at 1.1625, looks like this pair is showing some sign of bottoming up, as long as it doesn't close below 1.1580.

There were two bearish harami signals(a double top) in the 30min. chart at 1.1640 level. This pair need to close above this resistance level for the next upward move toward 1.1680-1.1700 level.

On the sideline for now.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2004 5:23 pm    Post subject: ICHIMOKU KINKO HYO Reply with quote

I was reading on another type of Japanese charting style which is called Ichimoku Kinko Hyo on this site:

http:/www.fxstreet.com/education/a30.asp

I thought it would be interesting to add candlestick to it, and see how it can improve my trading results. Like to put it into a test for couple upcoming trades. Let's see how it goes.

The Ichimoku chart of usd/chf shows a bearish trend is in progess in the 30min. chart. However, there is a weak buy signal(inside the circle) at 1.1620 area. I'll be interested to see what candle signals will form when prices break above/below the cloud Idea

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2004 6:42 pm    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

The buy signal still looks good at 1.1620 area...the breakout of the cloud doesn't seem to be a reversal signal...however, there is a good resistance waiting at 1.1640 area. Let's wait and see.

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Mon Nov 22, 2004 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The current price is at 1.1660. With a long bullish candle breaking the resistant 1.1640, looks like 1.1700 is the next target resistant level.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2004 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prices reached near the resist. level at 1.1696, and reversed sharply. There was a sell signal at 1.1640. I think there is a merit into this type of charting, but still need to do more testing before playing with real money.

There is a Think tank-system development forum in Moneytec.com where I'd like to get more involvement from other readers.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 4:43 pm    Post subject: Back from the Moneytec's think-tank system forum... Reply with quote

I got some very good ideas while I was in the Moneytec's forum...I still think there are some very good merit in combining candlestick signals along with a breakout of the Ichimoku's cloud...the idea came to me by a Moneytec's user named TC...however, I added my own exit strategy to the system...looks like a reilable currency trading system Idea

For those who are interested to get the detail:

http:/www.moneytec.com/forums/_forumdisplay/_s-/showthread.php?s=&threadid=11811&pagenumber=1

Let's see how it goes.

I had a hypothetical order on usd/chf today which is still open:

Sold 1.1570 SL 1.1610 (target open)

P.S. Forgot to mention that TC is a person who is a ship captain working in South Africa. I'd like to be a passenger of that ship anytime Wink
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 6:48 pm    Post subject: Where is $ going? Reply with quote

This article by FT is a must read:

http:/news.ft.com/cms/s/7c3f17ba-3e54-11d9-a9d7-00000e2511c8.html

" Silence greets greenback's fall from favour
By Steve Johnson
Published: November 24 2004 20:10 | Last updated: November 24 2004 20:10

The greenback tumbled to a nine-year low in trade-weighted terms on Wednesday, recording a fresh all-time low against the euro as the market saw no reason to end its selling spree.


In spite of the euro rising a further 0.6 per cent to $1.3170, eurozone politicians were once again muted about the threat of possible intervention, a relative silence that has been in place since the weekend's G20 meeting in Berlin.

Jaime Caruana, governor of the Bank of Spain, did say on Wednesday that the strength of the euro was hurting exports, but he did not call for anything to be done about it.

There were also no signs of the Bank of Japan returning to the market, in spite of the dollar hitting a 4-year low of Y102.58.

Indeed Kaoru Yosano, policy chief of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, appeared to pour cold water on the likelihood of fresh dollar buying, saying: "The effects of currency intervention would only be short-lived and limited."

Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, speculated that Japan may have switched from targeting the dollar/yen rate to a trade-weighted yen measure. With the real effective yen index still below the year-high set in February, and well off the highs of 1999/2000, this would reduce the need for imminent intervention.

Asian currencies were firmer against the dollar, with the Taiwan dollar at a 3-year high of T$32.21 and the Thai baht a seven-month high of Bt39.63.

This added credibility to a minority view in the market, espoused by Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York, that a real agreement had been reached at the G20, and that Asia would allow its currencies to appreciate against the dollar as a result.

The market was still mulling Tuesday's hints that the Russian central bank was likely to step up its policy of shifting foreign exchange reserves from dollars into euros. This in turn raised the spectre of Asian central banks following suit.

Neil Mellor at Bank of New York saw the prospect of a domino effect: "Talk of central banks readjusting their reserves to encompass a greater euro weighting has been rife in the foreign exchange markets for quite some time, along with speculation that [Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries] members may shift to euro-denominated oil sales. A dam can only take so much pressure."

BoNY estimated that a 5 percentage-point increase in the proportion of euros held in global FX reserves would involve buying of 130bn.

Laurie Cameron, head of global FX at JPMorgan Private Bank, also saw central banks diversifying from the dollar, although rising US interest rates might help to stem this tide as the return on US assets exceeds that on euro and yen holdings.

Comments from Opec's president, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, that the dollar was still "the best" currency in which to denominate oil failed to support the greenback. "
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 6:56 pm    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

Exited short at 1.1457 (+113)

Let's see the next trade can be executed live with profit.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One thing is for fact: $ will never collapse. And so the rest of other currency pairs floating around the world.

So far the major ones are: EUR/$, $/CHF, GBP/$, and $/JPY.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Nov 24, 2004 8:55 pm    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

Both daily and hourly prices are below the cloud. Would be looking for a downside breakout of the cloud in the 15min., otherwise staying on the sideline.

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