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401k - 3rd Qtr 2007

 
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ChickenHawk



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 247
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:31 pm    Post subject: 401k - 3rd Qtr 2007 Reply with quote

Hi Candlelites!

Well, the 3rd Qtr of 2007 finally arrived and I am still amazed at the Power of the Candlesticks and how they affected my 401k.

The same methods that Steve unselfishly shares every Thursday night during the FREE Stock Chats, and on Monday evenings for paid members, were used for picking the Mutual Funds for my 401k.

I would like to make the following statement before proceeding further:

STEVE BIGELOW...THE CANDLESTICK TRADING FORUM AND ANY OTHER LIVING PERSON OR ORGANISM ....HAS NO PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OF OR HAS MADE ANY SUGGESTIONS REGARDING THIS POST. THIS IS AN UNSOLICITED REPORT OF ACTUAL REAL RESULTS, USING CANDLESTICK METHODS......WITH REAL MONEY...IN REAL TIME...THIS IS MY RETIREMENT MONEY, AND I AM GLAD I FOUND THIS WEBSITE Exclamation

Now that is a load off of my mind. Honestly, folks. This is the real deal Exclamation

For a quick recap, here is the timeline:

This began Jan 1, 2006 when I aggressively started applying the Candlestick method for my 401k Mutual Funds. From about Apr 2005 until Dec 2005 (when I found this website), I read every article and word printed on this website, bought some books, cd's, etc. and applied myself..diligently...daily... and gave strong persistant efforts to train myself to recognize the patterns, candles, and everything else related to Candlesticks. And that is all there is to it!

....Candlestick methods Work...period... Exclamation

OK, here is the tally you've been waiting for:

2006
1st Qtr +30.78% Passed my goal of 30% for 2006
2nd Qtr +31.87% Arbitrarily changed the goal to 60% for 2006..I was awestruck with Candles!
3rd Qtr +34.64%
4th Qtr +56.79% for the Year! Laughing
porno izle
2007
1st Qtr +3.08% remember the Dow falling several hundred points!
2nd Qtr +21.17% better
3rd Qtr +37.48% Passed my Goal, again of 30%, for 2007 Laughing
4th Qtr + ? Stay Tuned, and "Don't change the Channel." I know, it's a bad pun. Rolling Eyes

Think about this:
"Can I do as well or better?"
"If only I had started in Jan 2006!"
" Hummmm, If I start sudying the Candlesticks now.... what about 2008?"

For you newbies, the results above were for the past 7 consecutive quarters Very Happy
Start studying now for the next 7....it's not too late...it's just the beginning! Idea

Let's see...there are 400 million people in the U.S.
If 1/2 are adults...that's 200 million
As I recall, there were at least (at one moment in time) 150 people attending last Thursday night's Stock Chat. I asked myself, "Why only 150 Question "

Then I recalled the first time I came acoss the Candles... the answer was clear as a Doji (darn it, another pun), "Candlesticks look so complicated....I don't understand the candles.....I get lost and confused...What are they talking about?" Sound familar?

Have you tried to learn? Did you put forth the effort and time? Did you realize that each person learns at their own pace (believe me, all of a sudden it will all come together!)

I've said it in previous Posts...Don't give up....Be Patient...yada yada yada

What else can I say?....I let the results speak for me Exclamation

I hope after the end of 2007 I can say, "The year has been good to me at +55%.

For the olde candlelites... see you next Thursday at the Stock Chat....
If I miss it, I'll review the replay....I haven't missed one yet Idea

Thanks again Steve Exclamation

You too Ricky Exclamation

Happy Trading Till Next Year Laughing
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wow good job chicken hawk....thats awesome.....now tell me what u think about SYNL ...do some analysis on what you think buddy!!!
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Way to go chicken hawk. That is outstanding. Clue us in. How often are you changing from fund to fund? I have had a lot of experience with mutul funds. I was limited on how much I could move around and the funds was only updated at the end of the month. I was not diversited enough and when the down turn started I could have moved to the money market fund to stop the bleeding at the end of any month but I didn't. I gave back most of what I had made in 97, 98, 99, 2000 and then some before the fall. I could have moved out but the fund mangers was assuring me to just wait it will be back. I waited and waited and waited but it didn't come back. The rule of 72 tells us that if you are making 20 percent your money will double every 3 and one half years. If you put it in a 4% account it will take it 18 years to double. One more interesting note the managers don't make any juice if you are in money markerts. I am referring to hundreds of thousands of dollars. According to my numbers chickenhawk you will be a rich man in 10 to 15 years. Keep it up Smile
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ChickenHawk



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 247
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks Harry

Harry, you are right on. I check the funds on a daily basis for the total of the portfolio. When the market was down several hundred points I lost a good bit, but then, so did everyone else.

I look at big drops like this. How much do I want to lose? I make a mental committment that if the portfolio drops too far, then I sell alll of it and wait with cash until the market picks up again.

When the market drops a lot, everyone hurts, so the pain is bigger. I bite my lip, cross my fingers, but if it drops below my absolute minimum..I am out. My thought on this is, "Remember Enron!" Idea I am not going to retire broke Exclamation And, I can always buy back in, or at the least have cash!

I only change my funds if the Candles tell me to, and usually at the beginning of the quarter. If all the funds are in the Green, or only down a little, then why change as there would be fees to pay. In the 7 quarters, I only changed 2-3 times, and around 2-3 funds out of 10-12. The only reason I can think of, is that the original candle picks in Jan 2006 were on the money..so to speak. Love those candles Exclamation

I think in a previous post I mentioned about a friend that his money manager told him to just wait...hold on...the market willl come back. His retirement went from 100k to 10k before his manager told him "Let the buyer beware! No thanks! I'll run my own life, and not make the same mistake.

Thanks again Harry for the reply
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ChickenHawk



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 247
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks ninner

All charts are courtesy of stockcharts.com.

I came across the same SYNL (I call it Saturday Night Live), and here are my thoughts:

Volume is OK.
Just entering the overbought area.
At support area of about the same time period as last year.



I show 4 resistance areas with the second one at the 200 SMA.

Note 1 1/2 months of straight downtrend.
Beginning to middle of Aug tried to do a j-hook, then went flat.
Pseudo Cradle Pattern from Aug 3-6 and last Bullish candle (two months)_



The failed J-hook in Aug turned into a scoop pattern.

What I do like is:
The Large Bullish candle on Friday.

The spread of the stochastics in Aug, compared to now (the space between the %k and %D)... If it stays about the same, I transposed the same movement to the end of the chart with potential to the 24 area which would be a 12% move (2-3 weeks or sooner). By that time the moving averages may meet and it could go either way. I suspect the 200SMA will catchup, then act as resistance.

May be a pull back to the 50 for profit taking... after the 50 catches up

On the other hand (from the 2nd chart) there is a possibility of a repeat reversal of last year's downward Stairstep Pattern to the upside and back to the 42 area. 2-4 months...Hummm...(Wow, did I come up with a new pattern Idea). This was just a thought while typing.



Hope this helps, but those are my thoughts.

Happy Trading Laughing
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:06 pm    Post subject: thanks chicken hawk Reply with quote

for taking the time for your excellent analysis.....i was thinking about the same lines....so thats good....i notice swing points also give a clue where a stock may be headed and along with candlesticks hopefully i can have the results u are having some day. You are da man!!! Very Happy
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z93007



Joined: 01 Feb 2007
Posts: 6

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:21 am    Post subject: Awesome! + Questions Reply with quote

ChickenHawk - you don't have to change the name, but you are a "LionRoar" Smile

Seriously, that post inspires the rest of us who are kind of on the sidelines or inactive - some may know the power of candles, but are lazy to work diligently as you do every day! One should be commitment to earn money. Most of us (including me) would "hope" for the best rather than analyzing the candles. Some may still be skeptic (partially me!), and some may be plain confused (he remaining part of me!).

Having confessed that, I'll repeat that your post inspires to get off the butt and do something. In an effort to do something, I have come across a few questions, and I hope your experience will help answer them.

1. You said you check candles everyday; however, you do not switch funds that often. So, what timeframe do you look at? - weekly/monthly or daily?

2. Is there a specific broker who allows transferring funds often? (I think you can switch 401k funds only limited number of times)

3. How much time do you allocate for the analysis everyday? Also, if daily analysis is not possible, do you suggest doing this every week (will it help?)

I might have a few more questions later, but for now, congratulations, and all the best for 2007 (and upcoming years') results.

Cheers!!!
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ChickenHawk



Joined: 24 Apr 2005
Posts: 247
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks z93007

I hope my posts do encourage others as that is the only reason I make them.

By the way...Today +45.60%

I do not have a lot of time but will try and answer your questions.

1. You said you check candles everyday; however, you do not switch funds that often. So, what timeframe do you look at? - weekly/monthly or daily?
Since Mutual Funds are not reported until Eod of Day, I usually check in the evening for the Portfolio Total. I make a mental note that if the market suddenly drops a huge ammount..and starts falling below my minimum...I am OUT Exclamation That is my absolute minimum, and I'll say it again...Remember Enron Exclamation Prophet.net allows me to display with candles for a weekly period, I then will use the patterns and Dailys if I sell, but also keep track of the Year to Date.

As I see it, what difference does it make for last year...that's the past...my money is for the NOW!

Since there are fees, for sellling, and some loss, I look at the gains other funds may give and say Sayonara to the negative one's. Ask yourself if it is worth losing 2-3% for a better Mutual Fund that is making 15%+ Idea And, use common sense. If the market is all down, then I expect mine to be down as well...BUT NOT PAST MY ABSOLUTE MINIMUM....It hasn't reached it yet (came close a couple of times when the Dow dropped 500, but the candles did not lead me astray. That's why I am such a believer...Candles Rule! Steve is Tops! and Ricky is a genius!

Who is Steve and Rick Question

Just read some more pages on this website and findout Idea

Fortunately, in almost two years I have only had to drop 3-4 out of a 12-15 total portfolio of Mutual Funds....I would make an educated guess, that the Candles picked them well...hee..hee...but shhhh..don't tell anyone else...let's keep it a secret

2. Is there a specific broker who allows transferring funds often? (I think you can switch 401k funds only limited number of times)
You have to do your homework and look at each brokers rules, maintenance fees (HA Exclamation ), and rules for selling and getting back in...they are all different, take your best shot and go with it...if it doesn't work..sell at your lowest absolute minimum...putting it all in cash and wait....after all, what goes down must come up...in most cases

3. How much time do you allocate for the analysis everyday? Also, if daily analysis is not possible, do you suggest doing this every week (will it help?)
Once the Funds are chosen, just like stocks, how long does it take to drink one cup of coffee, one beer, that's about how long it takes...but trading is Fun for me also, so I may spend 1/2 hour to one hour looking at the Portfolio and do mostly mental ...What If's... taking a special interest in those that the candles tell me to..... Otherwise, I let the candles do their stuff.

I would not suggest doing it Once a week.....of course there will be times when you can't, but make an effort....promise yourself right now...that you will check it every day, and stick to it.... The Dow can go down 500 today, 500 tomorrow, 500 the next, .... do you want to be a part of a future Enron Question


As I stated earlier, I did not have much time, but by the time I finished this Post, I would have been through with my daily Portfolio.

Hope this helps.

Happy Trading Very Happy

P.S. is Z93007 a Chevy Truck for James Bond? Just kidding...

AVII looking good again!
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jim67



Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 1
Location: MN

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:52 pm    Post subject: True inspiration... Reply with quote

Chickenhawk,

Your post is a true inspiration for me!
You have taken Steve's technics & applied them to your mutual funds.
What a unique & creative accomplishment for you.

Steve is the real expert here. With his background & knowledge, I would expect him to do well.
But, you're just one of us...Your success means the most to me!

You inspire me to really dig in & learn what Steve is teaching.
My intent is to use, then adapt, Steve's technics to trading the
End-Of-Day Profunds UltraFunds:
ULPIX, UMPIX, UAPIX, UDPIX, UOPIX, USJPIX, UNPIX, UUPIX, UBPIX.

Because I can't get intraday data on these funds, I plan to follow the candlestick patterns on the matching, highly-correlated indexes & ETF's.
That way, when I see a pattern setting up on the Fund charts, I can track the matching indexes & ETF's intraday & take the signal before market closes.

I agree totally & completely with your stop technics...
I too remember Enron.

Again, your original post is a great inspritatin to me!

Jim
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