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qsii
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

QSII had abit of a gap this morning and basically kept rising all day long ...now sits above 41 and holding well...if it continues to hold ..maybe it will stay above that level.
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i think QSII is caught in a ascending trend channel, the bearish engulfing signal is near the top of it...i dont see exerberant buying yet...i want to see where they take it tomorrow as well it may just fall to the bottom of the channel depending on what the market does tomorrow....anyone else holding or watching QSII ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 7:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see anything that would excite me about QSII. If I wanted to play it I would try to buy it around the 50 dma which is 39.75. Its little trend in Aug. looked the same as it does now. I hope I haven't rained on your parade. Very Happy
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msl



Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 13

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been following it just because you posted it on the forum. I agree it could be in an ascending channel. However, it could also have made a double top at 42, and it did close back below resistance at 41. There is possible bearish divergence forming at the high yesterday. Finally, from a candlestick perspective, we have a hanging man at resistance followed by a bearish engulfing candle on a day the Dow was up. To me, it appears that the probabilities favor a downward movement.

What are your reasons for wanting to stay with this particular stock?
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msl



Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 13

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Huge upside move at this point in time. If it holds, it will be a great move. Given my earlier analysis, I am very interested in hearing from ninner as to why he stayed with the trade in the face of bearish candlestick formations. Is the market using some of these formations to shake people out of good positions? Personally, if I had been in, I would definitely have exited on the bearish engulfing candle yesterday. Is that what Stephen would have recommended or am I missing something in the candle analysis?
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

well looks like QSII may hold today....why did I stick with it?? Well i recognized that it was forming a cup with a handle pattern....back in Aug, it gapped up through the moving averages which was strong....sometimes it pays to be patient....as well i noticed that its margins were pretty good and that they were improving...earnings and revs are good. the stock had trouble filling that gap and then i noticed formed an ascending channel in the handle which is positive as long as it doesnt break the channel to the downside which it hadnt...now sure it did form a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday but that by itself isnt reliable....as today showed it didnt confirm and moved higher with great volume....which is a confirming factor. In my opinion the the market movers are going to take this higher....at least into the 50's.....but i guess earnings will be a big factor whether the breakout holds....the optimal buy point was 42.10. That hanging man wasnt that reliable in my opinion the stochastics werent that overbought yet and it was in a congestion area so to me that was just a tight area in the congestion area of the chart which to me is a positive....if u had an extended chart and then u came across a hanging man...i would be watching for confirmation to sell. Hope this makes sense and answers your question...as u can see i try and use different ideals to make the right decision.

alll the best
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Harry



Joined: 11 Jun 2005
Posts: 128
Location: midwest

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CONGULATIONS!!!!! A $1.95 in one day. WOW I will be the first to admit I was very wrong on this one. I had it on my watch list but I didn't see this coming. Very Happy
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks dude, i went out for a run with my puppy so i didnt know how it held up. hopefully the breakout holds...i wouldnt be suprised if it tested the pivot point ...approx 40% of breakouts do test it and then possibly up from there so there may be another entry point.....now lets see what there earnings will be.


cheers friend.

Ninner
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msl



Joined: 03 May 2006
Posts: 13

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the insight. It appears you are using a combination of canslim and old fashioned TA. You're interpretation of the candle signals seems much more subtle than Stephen's. You don't seem to trust the signals by themselves. What percentage of candle analysis figures into your decisions?
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ninner



Joined: 17 Feb 2006
Posts: 167

PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i wouldnt say i dont trust them...im not really a trader and i do follow canslim to an extent even though im not as strict and i use other tools....i dont have enough cash at the moment to make trading worthwhile. I do look at intraday charts of my holdings every day and i use candlesticks for that...as well i will take a look at candlesticks over a period of time but i think the more tools u have at your disposal the great likelihood u will be in a good investment so i use bar charts along with volume as well...volume tells me alot about where a stock is going and is a good confirming indicator.
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