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stop loss stratagies

 
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KingAsLan
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:15 pm    Post subject: stop loss stratagies Reply with quote

hello Candliers

I am sitting on OSUR went in at 10.41$ and my stop loss is at 9.60$. My " exit goal" is for the stock to reach 13.41$. my question is when should i move up my stop loss and at what price?


KingAsLan
[img]http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=OSUR&p=D&b=9&g=1&id=t59467390721&r=3478[/img]
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russjackel



Joined: 16 Sep 2005
Posts: 59
Location: niantic ct

PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:58 pm    Post subject: stop loss and ostk Reply with quote

If it was me I would get out now at the 11.5 with profit and move to a position with more profit potential. Do not see it going over 13. soon and there are better trades to be in. jmho good luck and I am fairly new at this. btw I am looking at ostk right now in the 25.00 area morning star and stows overbought turning up and ultimate below 30 turning up.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2006 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

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candlestick1
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Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 503
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2006 12:55 pm    Post subject: Stock market technical analysis Reply with quote

The purpose of candlestick signals is to give you correct stock market technical analysis. Keep in mind, although you hope for a price to move to a certain level, let the candlestick signals tell you what the investors are actually doing. The reason for stock market technical analysis is to identify with a high probability what is going on in a price move.

Today OSUR appears to be forming an evening star signal. The next stock market technical analysis would be is a stock in an uptrend, where could a pullback, and do I take profits and be ready to buy back in on the next buy signal.

Wait until the end of the day to see what actual formation occurs. [/img]
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2006 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And do not forget to consider the overall market mood. A long position in a shorting market has a much lower chance of success (and vise versa)
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
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Location: australia

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2006 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And do not forget to consider the overall market mood. A long position in a shorting market has a much lower chance of success (and vise versa)
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2006 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And do not forget to consider the overall market mood. A long position in a shorting market has a much lower chance of success (and vise versa)
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Bookworm



Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Posts: 71
Location: Lubbock, TX

PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 1:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

King Aslan,

Where you set your sell stop is a matter of what kind of trader you are; there is no one answer. I'm more on the swing and position trading side. If it were me in your trade, I would put a stop loss just below the halfway point of the most recent long white candle (about $11.20 or so) for Monday--something I learned from Stephen B. If you can, set the order to be sent about 15 minutes before the close. If it's down that far or below at that time, you want out. If it reached that far during intraday, but went back up like on Friday, you don't want to be stopped out by the noise.

The last candle's long tail shows some selling, probably profit taking by those who got a drubbing from the big drop on 12/16. You do not know how many may want out here, but the candle also suggests the buyers were in control to move it back up above the previous day's close, but not strong enough to keep momentum above Friday's open.

I would be concerned about the gap between $11.78 and $12.05 (my eyeballing it; good 'nuff for gubmnt work!): you may have a number of shorts right here that will push it back down by adding to their positions. If it does manage to get up to $12.25-50 or so, you could catch yourself in a pop to the upside because of a short squeeze. Also notice all the down days between $13.00 and $14.00. Anybody in that stock as it tried to move above $14.00 should have seen the drop coming. I strongly suspect you have major short positions sitting above $14.00. Check the short ratio on Yahoo or someplace. The stochastics are already oversold, and the RSI is getting close to 70 (the number usually considered "oversold"). This is not to say, Cramer style, "sell, Sell, SELL!" It is to say, Be vigilant and nimble.

Also, notice that the increasing price has not been matched by increasing volume. You've got retail buyers (like you and me) buying it up, but no indication that the big guys (mutual funds, pension funds, etc.) are supporting the move up. Without them, you're in a liferaft on the ocean being circled by sharks.

So, if it were me, I'd set my "get out" point before market open on Monday at $11.20 or so, if it is trading there or below at 3:45 ET. I would also probably bail out quickly (by 9:45 ET) if all three major averages showed a significantly lower opening (i.e., Dow futures down by more than 35, Naz down by more than 10, SP down by more than 10). I'm of the opinion that the market is more likely to move down another 2% before it rallies 2%, but I don't have my crystal ball back from the shop yet.

If you can't set a time-sensitive order or watch it like a (Chicken)hawk, put a sell-stop at about $10.70 and check it when you return home on Monday.

My advice is worth what you paid for it!

Peace and all good,

Bookworm
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KingAsLan
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:59 am    Post subject: stop loss stratiges Reply with quote

Thanks a bunch Bookworm and the others.... I feel i have been with osur too long and will try to get the best profit i can next week. I feel I may have gone in too early. Embarassed so the hunt will go on for the next stock pick....Thanks again

May the God of the force be with you.....

KingAsLan Cool
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KingAsLan
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:00 am    Post subject: stop loss stratiges Reply with quote

Thanks a bunch Bookworm and the others.... I feel i have been with osur too long and will try to get the best profit i can next week. I feel I may have gone in too early. Embarassed so the hunt will go on for the next stock pick....Thanks again

May the God of the force be with you.....

KingAsLan Cool
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Bookworm



Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Posts: 71
Location: Lubbock, TX

PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

King Aslan,

I wouldn't say that you got in too early. If anything, you got in too late. The bullish engulfing signal at the bottom was a good signal for entry the next day. You could have been alerted to it if you had a watchlist of stocks that have gapped down at least 20% on 3x the 22 day sma volume. I have found that these drops are often overreactions and beautiful buying opportunites once the smoke clears. Any up move must be on substantial (at least 2x normal) volume.

Even though it consolidated from 12/22 to 30, it never violated the doji low of 12/21. Your exit signal should have been the hammer that closed at about $10.10, or if you missed that one, the doji the next day.

Here's where I sort of part company with Stephen B. Buy/Sell only when stochastics are overbought/oversold. There are too many signals generated each day, and you want everything possible in your favor. Stick with the very basics: candle entry signal, with stochastics in overbought or oversold area turning in your expected direction with good volume on the formation day. It works for me.

Peace and all good,

Bookworm
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