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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:29 pm    Post subject: QQQ Reply with quote

Just wondering if anyone has any thoughts on the Qs? I have a Nov $36 PUT going right now and still believe the trend is down. Reasons Stos (12,3,3) down trend with no sign of turning, candles have shown no sign of a reversal, MACD(12,26,9) has not turned down but looks to be ready to. I still think a target of $34.50 to $34 is viable.
This gap down day that finish up, bounced of the bottoms of two gaps one on Sept 10 and another Sept 30, also bounced off the 20 day moving average and stopped at the 200 day moving average. Not sure how these support/resistance spots so close together will effect the trend.
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candlestick1
Site Admin


Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 503
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Tue Oct 12, 2004 11:56 pm    Post subject: Stock market systems Reply with quote

I am getting the same analysis on the QQQ. Using the stochastics, 12,3,3, the trend is still indicated lower. However, you have to analyze the other stock market systems that could effect a potential bounce. If you look at the 200 day moving average, today it just touched it before heading back down. However, a positive open on Wednesday could lead to a bounce for a day or two, but the gap down of last friday still indicates good selling force.
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 8:09 pm    Post subject: QQQ Reply with quote

Another consideration is the uptrend line from Aug 13 The current down trend has resulted after doing a bounce up from sep28 (off 50 dayMA with morning star) and hitting the trend line(which passed through the trading sep7 to 13 approx) from underneath. A good short position as alexander elder would say. I think the down move will continue but its strength and duration will be told in the signals as the new uptrend from Aug13 through Sep28/29 is approached. If this is broken with force then the 200 day MA and support/resistance lines at $3450 to $35 will be quite strong.I suggest being cautious about milking too much from an options trade unless the day to day signals are very strong in this area Thats my analysis?
Good luck
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Wed Oct 13, 2004 11:04 pm    Post subject: qqq Reply with quote

Oops, sorry n7kon
I said 200dayMA when I should have said 50day MA around the $34.5 to $35 level
The "good luck" does not change however.
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi n7ron,
How have you been handling this trade now that a few more candles have been added?
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candlestick1
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Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 503
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Sun Oct 17, 2004 9:16 pm    Post subject: QQQ Reply with quote

The QQQ did a doji/harami on fFriday, this makes for an easy evaluation on Monday, the trend will continue in the same direction as it opens. The stochastics, although heading down, is doing so with a trajectory that is flattening out, leaving room for it to move in either direction.
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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:06 pm    Post subject: QQQ Reply with quote

I was stopped out yesterday 10/18/04, at break even. I bought the Nov. 36 put back today for .60. I still think the short term trend is down. Will be watching market in morning to see what happens. I think the Stos will continue the down trend MACD will roll down again. My new target is $35 still think it may even get to $34.5 but think $35 is more realistic. Have my stop in t .5 and target price at $ 1.2 for now. At $35 target with the $36 put if it took until expiration day to get down to $35 still would have .40 profit. As I write this 9pm pacific time the futures are down $3.50 .
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