Joined: 25 Jan 2005
|Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2005 10:28 am Post subject: Viewpoint and other opinions
|I get this email each week and I think it is clever. This week it has an important view of why the big drop wednesday.
Link to current ViewPoint
Here is a response from one of my local TC User members. I think he has great insite into how we all must prepare before trading.
Don't read me wrong, I'm a permaBull, especially tech (techno-nut). My
point was merely to assess the article & the possible why's &
wherefores of individuals leaving the market. Whatever their stated
"Bulls make money", Barons, et al. There very nearly always is a bull
market somewhere & in something. One has to do the pre-requisite leg
work to find tat market.
"Bears make money.", Baron's, et al. True, it is often said by many
one can make more money faster in a stock tanking. What is generally
forgotten or missed here is this happens in a bull market, or the
beginnings of a bear market. In an established bear market it becomes
just as difficult to profit handsomely from stocks going down as it is
in bull market profits of stocks going up. That said tough, the
reverse in just as valid. The end of an established bear market
beginning a new bull market the upside profits are just as rapid &
"Pigs get slaughtered.", Jim Cramer, et al. I won't even go there
other than to ask, are talking traders or long term buy & hold
investors? A matter of viewpoint.
My view of the market as a whole, I'll limit this to the DJ-30, is
formed by my own work & research. Sure I listen to & read the "talking
heads", just to be informed of other opinions. But, I do my own work.
My work, my view:
9700 - Do-able, maybe even probable. Based on last weekends study we
have lots of "bumps" in the road to reach that point:
Any one of these points could be the inflection for an upturn out of
the bear. Possible, yes. Probable, we'll have to see. And, that is if
we are not at an inflection as the markets stands today, some think
so. Possible, yes. Likely? We'll soon see.
The key "PATIENCE". Investors/traders on the fringe get in originally
because they perceive easy fast money. Take that away, consolidation
(long term) or big lengthly down leg, their daily lives don't permit
the patience required.
My view above is derived by looking at the market in almost all
available time frames & zooms. I must say every time I look at the
yearly it scares the bejeebers out of me. Also for monthly, quarterly,
& yearly I use slash charts, keeping in mind Wordens & TC2005 does not
use calendar dates for these. I do look at the non-slash charts of the
above mentioned time frames to watch the candle developement. This
provides me with perspective. Is my view of the market being
confirmed, or do I need to be flexible & perhaps prepare for new
Work = Preparation. Stated another way "Forewarned is forearmed."
Preparation & vigilance = Confidence. Confidence enables taking
advantage of current circumstances, up or down.
To iterate, "PATIENCE" is the key.