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Revolutionizing Investor Psychology
 
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 2:31 pm    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

Bought 1.2627 SL 1.2605 TP 1.2670

Looks like this pair has hit the bottom now...22 pips is a good risk(5 pips below the major support line at 1.2610).
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 3:33 pm    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

Stopped out ( -22)

14:34 --- Reversed short now:

Short 1.2605 SL 1.2630 (target open)
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TimV



Joined: 24 Sep 2004
Posts: 15
Location: USA

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not a great trading day today,

EUR Sell @ 1.2285, close @ 1.2280 +5
EUR Sell @ 1.2310, close @ 1.2303 +7

Net for day +12
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well TimV, it is always better to be positive then negative...still holding to my short...tight SL might get hit soon.

I have to admit the last trade wasn't a thoughtful trade Exclamation Emotion also kicked in a bit.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Tue Oct 05, 2004 7:27 pm    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

This is the 30min chart showing a break of the support 1.2610 with a bearish engulfing, and confirmed by the next bearish bar...however, I think this event took too late in the game, and with a bit miscalculation of identifying the correct major support level...not to mention candlestick1's observation of the bullish harami formed in the daily chart, going short was a bit risky...however, I am still good with the trade.

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2004 2:01 am    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

Exited at 1.2625 (-20)

Breakout trades seem to be tougher than reversal ones. Sad
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2004 8:33 am    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

Res. 1.2680
Sup. 1.2610

With current price at 1.2650, looking for a reversal pattern near the sup/res levels.

11:45 --- too choppy at this time, and very hard to enter at a right price...on the sideline.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2004 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Double Top has been formed in 3hr. 1.2680 is now a confirmed resistance level. With stoc. still above 70, a bit risky to take any short position now.

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2004 3:12 pm    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

This pair has now entered a consolidation range between 1.2660-40.

Buy area: 1.2610-20
Sell area: 1.2670-80

Assuming there is a reversal pattern as prices hit the above area.
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2004 4:49 pm    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

Couldn't ignore the sell signal in 30min. chart...with stoc. well below 70, took the short position:

Short 1.2655 SL 1.2685 (target open)

17:05 --- A small hammer formed on the 50ema...don't like it, so moved the SL to 1.2655 (breakeven)

17:51 --- Exited at 1.2655 (0)

50ema at 1.2640 is providing a strong support for this pair.


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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Wed Oct 06, 2004 7:42 pm    Post subject: The 30min. Chart Reply with quote

Looks like this pair has formed the Cup & Handle pattern. So any close above 1.2680, I'd be a buyer, and below 1.2630 a seller.

But then again, it all depends to the candle patterns, and stochastic Idea

Trading Strategy:

1- Check every 30 minutes, if close above 1.2680(stoc.>70), wait for a bullish reversal candlestick pattern, then enter long.

2- If close below 1.2630(stoc.<30), wait for a bearish reversal pattern, then enter short.

(SL 35 TP 70 pips.)

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 5:39 am    Post subject: usd/chf... Reply with quote

Well, the prices closed below 1.2630 at 02:30 EST(with stoc. below 30), and there was a bearish reversal pattern(inside the circle):

Sold 1.2635 SL 1.2670 TP 1.2565

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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 8:04 am    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

As long as prices are confined within the lower bollinger band, the short position should be good until prices try to close above 1.2650...if this would be the case, then it's time to bail out.



Last edited by FrankC on Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:55 am; edited 1 time in total
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candlestick1
Site Admin


Joined: 27 Jun 2004
Posts: 503
Location: Houston, Texas

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 9:20 am    Post subject: signals Reply with quote

yes, a good strategy, as you can see, the signals can clarify what is happening at those bands
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FrankC



Joined: 23 Sep 2004
Posts: 269
Location: Chile

PostPosted: Thu Oct 07, 2004 10:42 am    Post subject: Update... Reply with quote

Thanks candlestick1. I think it is a good strategy, only if this market agrees with it Laughing

Prices closed above the mid-band with a bullish engulfing bar...it was followed by a spinning top, and a hanging man. Could this mean that the psychology behind the price pattern is still bearish?

If prices close above the hanging man, I think it is safer to take my loss, and exit.

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