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R2000 - Ain't No Bear There
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2005 2:27 pm    Post subject: R2000 - Ain't No Bear There Reply with quote

Let's see how the signals treat us going forward. In the Russell 2000

Last edited by tab321 on Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Fri Feb 18, 2005 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks bearish to me.
Thursdays bearish engulfing at resistance of last weeks high. Two doji days followed by engulfing of an attempt to rally with the stos still in overbought territory and pointing down says the bears are here
Admittedly it is sitting on the 50MA but unless it opens strongly and continues up I think it is for a good fall
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sailorboy



Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 30
Location: Malta

PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2005 1:21 am    Post subject: Re: Ain't No Bears There Reply with quote

tab321 I tend to agree with you that the bears are on the retreat. One other indicator which pionts in the direction of upward movement is the 20 day simple moving. This is climbing and heading to cross the 50 day simple moving average. To me this implies that price is in an uptrend (it would not show daily fluctuations in price but the general direction). My feeling is that unless there is an obvious deterioration in the candlestick pattern the direction of the price is up and the bears are not around when price is moving up. Don't take this as gospel I may be wrong, but these are my feelings.
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dtdtrader



Joined: 15 Sep 2004
Posts: 24

PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2005 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Only the market can tell us for sure. My only notes would be that the morning star pattern was formed with the stochastics not in an optimal position (less than 20). However, the bearish engulfing pattern was formed with the stochastics above 80. Those stochastics are now turning down. Tuesday should be an important day. I, for one, am hoping the markets will sell off next week which should create a very good upside scenario for March, which can be a good month.
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2005 7:15 pm    Post subject: R2000 - Comments Reply with quote

Guys:

You all make some valid points with your observations. Thanks for the input. Maybe we should thank the market for these "tricky" times on the chart.

As they say:
Quote:
It is Tricky to go Long when you are in a downtrend. It is Tricky to go Short when you are in an uptrend. That makes Trading a Tricky-Tricky business!!


TAB
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turtle
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2005 7:59 pm    Post subject: r2000 no bear there reply Reply with quote

nice candlestick analysis but what about the rest of the chart. You have a possible double top with stochastics pointing to a possible break down. The first stochastics peak matches stock peak but second stochastics peak has failed indicating weak momentum. let me know what you think.
Smile
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Sun Feb 20, 2005 9:55 pm    Post subject: R2000 - Ain't No Bear There Reply with quote

Turtle:

Thanks for your good observations. One question - how do you call this a possible double top when the Russell 2000 is 24 pts below a recent high? Now - the DJ is certainly at a possible top. As for the Russell 2000 - I can see it going either way. For the past 8 Trading Days...it has been mostly sideways. So please tell me about the "double top" issue. Compare it to the DJones. I see it in the DJ but not the Russell 2000.

On the Stochastics - GOOD POINT. I have not thought about considering that. I can see where that would be an issue. Of course, mid November through mid December was the same thing with the Stochs and it kept chugging higher. But - when the stochs fizzle down little by little, that has got to be a sign of weariness....I'm sure. I have not paid much attention to the peaks in the stochs. That is something I should start watching.

Thanks for bringing these issues out. For sure, in a few short days, we will know if we are correct. Again, if the Morning Star pattern which completed on the 11th is violated....then, I would turn bearish for the short term period of two weeks or less.

Let's keep learning together.

TAB
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 3:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Turtle: I also yhink we are seing divergence signals inthe stock price/stochastics. This is a confirming signal for a turn down
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 2:43 pm    Post subject: Bear is Showing Up Reply with quote

Welp:

If the Bear was not there in the chart above....he sure has put his foot on the property line today. Somebody may run him slap out of the county and he just may - stay - and take over the whole farm !!

TAB
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turtle
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 8:46 pm    Post subject: r2000 Reply with quote

Thanks for your reply to my observations. The double top I am refering to is on either side of the box on your chart. As to your november december comparison stochastics at that time were rising whereas now they are falling
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Tue Feb 22, 2005 11:17 pm    Post subject: Your Observations Reply with quote

Turtle:

Last edited by tab321 on Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Fri Feb 25, 2005 3:51 am    Post subject: One Day Bear Reply with quote

I may be wrong but the Big O' Bear just aint got me scared yet.

Last edited by tab321 on Tue Jun 28, 2005 1:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Owl
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 25, 2005 6:34 am    Post subject: Russell2K Reply with quote



I read the action now in the Russell2K as being more in a sideways channel. Notice how the price has been drifting accross the BB in a correction thru time manner and as it has drifted it has been losing steam as indicated by the Percentage Volume Oscillator. IMO it will take a move (up or down) on volume to award this one to the bulls or the bears. Looks like a draw at the moment. If I were to give bulls or bears a SLIGHT advantage at this time I would go with the bears due to the distribution day on tuesday with very good volume and the average volume on thursday's bullish day.
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Fri Feb 25, 2005 10:19 am    Post subject: Looking Sharp Reply with quote

Owl

Thanks for the comments. Good explaination. Your chart makes your posting look sharp - nice chart. You got a point about the sideways action. And - you make a good point about the volume (which is the ONLY market indicator that is built, formed, created, etc....apart from price itself). All indicators rely on "price" to determine their value - Volume is totally independent of price. You are probably using the better word for what is happening - sideways.
Quote:
If I were to give bulls or bears a SLIGHT advantage at this time I would go with the bears due to the distribution day on tuesday with very good volume and the average volume on thursday's bullish day


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sailorboy



Joined: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 30
Location: Malta

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2005 5:51 am    Post subject: RUT-X – Where are the bears Reply with quote

On Friday the 2/18 price had not yet violated the 50 dma. Tuesday’s large negative candle, which penetrated the 50 dma from above, set me thinking that perhaps the bears are closer than I previously thought after all. On Wednesday and Thursday we saw a bounce off the 100 dma with price heading towards the 50 dma again but not quite reaching it. On Friday 2/25 price blew through the 50 dma and the 20 dma crossed the 50 dma and is heading up this is a bullish sign (see my note of the 2/19 posted above). Stochastic is in a favorable position and viewing the overall picture I cannot see any bears in view, but they may be lurking round the corner because we seem to be coming into a triple top possibly. On the other hand if price today breaks out above the 2/17 highs the bears would have retreated to their den.
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