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NWS Morning Star
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Sun Jan 23, 2005 11:46 pm    Post subject: NWS Morning Star Reply with quote

What do you think of the signal for NWS
On the Australian market NWS has formed a doji/harami followed by a gap up with strong up day; Sto very oversold and turning up and on strong support line
With NWS now based in the USA I need to extend the analysis because the US market will have a strong influence on trading over here.
Im excited, am I justified?
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:13 am    Post subject: NWS - Doji Plus Gap Up Reply with quote

Abbo:

The first thing Steve Bigalow said at a meeting in October 2004 was that a Doji + Gap Up = Buy. NWS is a classic example of that rule so this should be a good signal. Especially since it is a Doji plus a Gap Up at a recent low. Moreover, NWS has had some good accumulation since late October 2004. One thing to watch for.....since it has not recovered above its 50 Day MA.....be on the alert for that area if you buy. If it fails to recover, that would be a "Blue Ice Failure" and it would be proned to take out the low set by the Doji one day ago.

Here is how I would Chart it up:


Thanks for bringing it up. It looks like a good selection to me.

TBeard
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tab321



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 368
Location: Texas

PostPosted: Thu Jan 27, 2005 11:24 pm    Post subject: Signal is Working Reply with quote

Abbo

This one has not flown up into the heavens but the Signal is working. Buyers have not stepped in but there are no Sellers taking it down. I would still be a buyer.

And - sometimes I wonder if Candle Signals should not be watched a day or two to see if they will stick or to see if they will pull back. Many times some of the best signals such as picture perfect morning stars, etc.....pull back and offer a better entry.

TAB
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Thu Jan 27, 2005 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are right however how does a trader operate a system if he waits for these pull backs. The decision to enter then becomes clouded by not having an entry criteria that is mechanical in execution (unless it is another signal in which case you may want to wait again for the pull back ....).
Operating the candle signal gives that objectivity and the format of any regression from the signal then dictates the exit or hold.
As candle1 has indicated, he does not usually operate stops but lets the candles show the requirement for an exit. Stops may be useful if there are obvious support/resistance levels but even then I think it may be prudent to wait closer to the close to see if things are really turning or just being jurked around
As for NWS it is holding up well on the US market and I would be holding on also however over here it has fallen right on to support levels today(my friday) at the close so I will be watching the results of the US market on friday your time with some interest.
Thanks for the post. It is good for us beginners to get outside perspective at times.
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Thu Jan 27, 2005 11:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are right however how does a trader operate a system if he waits for these pull backs. The decision to enter then becomes clouded by not having an entry criteria that is mechanical in execution (unless it is another signal in which case you may want to wait again for the pull back ....).
Operating the candle signal gives that objectivity and the format of any regression from the signal then dictates the exit or hold.
As candle1 has indicated, he does not usually operate stops but lets the candles show the requirement for an exit. Stops may be useful if there are obvious support/resistance levels but even then I think it may be prudent to wait closer to the close to see if things are really turning or just being jurked around
As for NWS it is holding up well on the US market and I would be holding on also however over here it has fallen right on to support levels today(my friday) at the close so I will be watching the results of the US market on friday your time with some interest.
Thanks for the post. It is good for us beginners to get outside perspective at times.
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JimSpeer



Joined: 03 Dec 2004
Posts: 136
Location: Milwaukee WI

PostPosted: Fri Jan 28, 2005 8:20 am    Post subject: The sticks talk Reply with quote

I think that if one is a candlestick player, the candles are the system. If the candles say get in ( I think this chart says buy me...in addition to the strong candle signal, it finds support from a previous low).

For the initial entry, I would get in on the signal. If it isn't performing, get out and go on to the next signal. I wouldn't try to over optimize the candle signals by adding conditions for a pull back, retracement, fib, gann, etc. that would be applied randomly or inconsistantly. I believe it is the "sameness" that creates the system (any trading system).

Use an appropriate stop and proceed with the trade.



JimSpeer
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cmant1



Joined: 22 Jan 2005
Posts: 17

PostPosted: Fri Jan 28, 2005 10:32 am    Post subject: NWS Reply with quote

NWS sto turning down on the 4 2 2 indicator
12 3 3 sto turning up
MACD 10 30 5 turning down
Market is down overallBollinger seems to be getting tight
Keeping this on my watch
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kermitp



Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 48

PostPosted: Fri Jan 28, 2005 6:36 pm    Post subject: NWS - in downtrend not uptrend. Reply with quote

You have to pay attention to the overall trend of the stock not just the last few weeks or month. NWs is in a 5 wave down pattern and what you re seeing is the wave 4 rally. It will be short lived.

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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Fri Jan 28, 2005 8:19 pm    Post subject: NWS Reply with quote

I would wait for this to close above $17.76 on strong volume. Then I would use a 6% stop and then use 17.76 as support stop once it makes it above there a little.

Just a rookies point of view
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abbo



Joined: 12 Sep 2004
Posts: 148
Location: australia

PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2005 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the replies
kermitp; I am interested in finding out more about your analysis as I have very little understanding of wave theory.
When I look at the 12 month daily chart of NWS, I see the stock in downtrend from feb04 to sep04, a consolidation channel for two months and then a jump up to a larger consolidation area. Conceivably the period from sep04 to now could also be tagged an uptrend.
I see generalised support at todays prices occuring in mar04,may04 and dec04 and resistance at todays levels in sep04. The gap up in sep also comes into play as support at todays prices.
The sto12,3,3 is moving up on a second bounce out of the oversold area and the MACD 12,26,9 is bottoming at very low levels for only the third time in a year.
All this coupled with a number of positive candle signals suggests to me that the stock will go higher.
Also since august02 to early 2004 I would consider NWS in generalised uptrend and since then in a side ways move( but this is getting very big picture and outside our trading time frame).
Now that I have convinced myself, kermitp could you clarify for me your perspective on the NWS chart. The only downtrend I can justify for your wave analysis is from early jan05. To see any waves here I need to have the up day on 12jan05 as wave 2 and the last few days of this month as wave 4.
Can you shed some light on the subject? Thanks

n7kon: I agree with your analysis after seeing the pattern develop however for those who entered on the positive morning following the completion of the morning star the decision is a bit different. Personally I would think the trade is still active but should be exited if the closing price comes below the low of the up day that completed the morning star pattern. What are your thoughts on this predicament? Also, why chose a 6% stop from current prices? I think that would equate to around a one dollar price fall from here. For me that would be a very long way after the signals would have said this trade was not working. What do you think?
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kermitp



Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 48

PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2005 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Abbo, I'd be glad to post a chart once I figure out how.

Yes, the downtrend started on Jan 3 when the previous 5 wave up pattern completed with a high of 19.41. My Advancedget is projecting the corrective wave 4 to complete in the 17.88 to 18.05 area. I do like the hammer on friday it shows some buyer support. But I still believe this will will take out the Aug04 low around 16.

As for how valid EW counts may be in this case, I can't say. I don't like the price action since the first of the year. So I'd find a better trade than this.
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kermitp



Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 48

PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2005 12:36 pm    Post subject: NWS - earnings before the bell 2/2/5 Reply with quote

According to moneycentral NWS will post earnings before market opens on 2/2/5. So may want to hold offer entering this until then.

2/2/05 Q2 2004 The News Corporation Limited Earnings Conference Call 9:00 AM
2/2/05 Q2 2004 The News Corporation Limited Earnings Release Before Market Opens
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kermitp



Joined: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 48

PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2005 2:28 pm    Post subject: NWS Elliott ave chart Reply with quote

Here is the GET chart showing the wave count. As TAB321 pointed out in another post it is doe uncommon for wave 3 to recounted. That is why Get only recommends certain points to trade.

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NWS
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 30, 2005 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I use 6% on a trade like this so that I donít get whipsawed out on a long lower shadow. The chart formation now looks like a double bottom forming. Granted it is a very close small double bottom but still there. I think Monday will bring a day similar to what the past few days have been then if the earnings do ok you will see your bounce from there.
Also look at the support line created by the matching bottoms on dec 8 and 9. On 3 nov you have the top of a large gap as support also. Then back on may 17 you have a hammer that just missed this support line also. Another thing to look at is this down trend the volume has been tapering off quite well that is a sign of a move coming also. A neutral play would be to buy a put and a call at say 17.5 strike price (straddle), have a stop on both options that will keep you from loosing much on the one that does not work. On this trade you would risk $850.00 cost of the straddle for 10 contracts. Your break even would be $18.35 (that is if you just let the straddle go and not stop the loosing side of the straddle). These are good plays if you are expecting a strong move in one direction or another just not sure which way it will go.
Again just a rookies thoughts
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n7kon



Joined: 09 Oct 2004
Posts: 52

PostPosted: Sun Jan 30, 2005 12:03 pm    Post subject: NWS Reply with quote

Sorry forgot to log in above on my responce to addo's question on 6% and further thoughts. Embarassed
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