| Learning
the Stock Market - Simplified with Candlestick
Signals.
Learning the stock market is something
that most people never master in their lifetime.
Although everybody seems to know somebody
that has made big profits in the markets,
learning the stock market seems to be difficult
for the vast majority of investors. Even
the so-called professionals tell most investors
to put your money into the markets for the
longer term. This is because they do not
have a better solution. When they were learning
the stock market, if they had any guidance
at all themselves, it was to find companies
that have strong earnings growth. When you
find these companies, buy them and hold
them long term.
The most supposedly sage advice that we
get from investment professionals is that
you cannot time the market. That usually
comes from somebody that has not taken the
time to learn the stock market. Prices do
not move based on strong fundamentals. Prices
move based on the ‘perception’
of strong fundamentals. When most people
are learning the stock market, they are
not told how professional investors trade.
When somebody tells you that you cannot
time the markets, ask them why the names
Warren Buffett and George Soros are so well
known.
The Candlestick signals make learning the
stock market a very easy process. Instead
of being taught about what “should”
make you money in the markets, the Candlestick
signals, when fully understood, what illustrate
why you should be making
money in the markets. The psychology that
is built into the formation of the Candlestick
signals is purely common sense investment
philosophy put into a graphic form. Learning
how to make money in the stock market is
a process of learning how to control your
emotions.
The Candlestick signals are a graphic depiction
of the mass investor psychology. If it is
understood that most investors panic sell
at the bottom and buy exuberantly at the
top, learning the stock market will become
extremely easy when applying Candlestick
signals to your analysis. Fortunately, understanding
the Candlestick signals is not a difficult
process. Understanding where and when most
investors invest improperly, being able
to see that in Candlestick formations, now
allows a Candlestick investor to completely
reverse their investment perceptions.
Making correct trades -
Learning how to profit in the markets is
a function of analyzing when it is the proper
time to get into a trade. The Candlestick
signals represent hundreds of years of visually
analyzing formations that signify high probability
potential. As demonstrated in the BOOM chart,
some very simple trading observations provide
the potential to make high profit returns.
As seen in the early to mid part of January,
a strong Morning Star signal, with stochastics
in the oversold area, stopped the downtrend.
It also became obvious that the 50-day moving
average stalled the upside reversal. One
of the simple rules, when applying Candlestick
signals to a chart using moving averages,
is that the first attempt at a moving average
will usually fail. That was demonstrated
in mid-January. The second attempt will
usually succeed, as seen on the last day
of January.
In this case the last day of January formed
a very strong bullish candle that gave the
indication that the 50-day moving average
was not going to be considered a resistance
level anymore. The uptrend continued with
the expected pullback. A second basic rule
is that usually when a major technical level
is finally breached, it will come back and
test that level. What had been a resistance
level now became a support level. Using
these techniques allows an investor to fine
tune their investment program. Part of learning
the stock market is learning how to take
your profits and/or reduce your risk. Approximately
the fifth day of February revealed a Bearish
Engulfing signal after a Doji. Stochastics
were in the overbought area starting to
turn down. The probabilities say that this
is the time to take profits.
The chart graphic illustrates that the
50-day moving average could be the pullback
target. Important criteria in that observation
is the words "could be". That
is the potential support level but nothing
is set in stone. Why continue to own a position
where the probabilities indicate that it
is going to go back down? Take profits and
be ready to buy it back if the 50-day moving
average becomes the support.
As illustrated in the chart, the 50-day
moving average acted as support, the evidence
being that the Hammer-type signal and a
couple Doji's. The bullish trading off of
the 50-day moving average after those indecisive
days reveals that the buyers were stepping
in. Buying back in at that level creates
a low risk trade. A move back down through
the 50-day moving average becomes the stop.
The upside potential becomes a breach of
the $14 area, then the $17 area. The gap-up
through the first resistance level, with
stochastics starting to turn back up, provides
a graphic picture that the buyers are starting
to come into the stock with force.
BOOM

We use the BOOM chart as an illustration
because the analysis was used for including
this as one of our recently recommended
stocks. The point for learning how to invest
in the stock market is to be able to analyze
which stocks give you the best upside potential,
both in moving in the correct direction
as well as with a strong magnitude to the
price move.
The Candlestick formations applied with
other technical analysis produce a very
strong trading program. Where do people
buy? They buy exuberantly at the top. Friday
was a day to take more than half of the
position off with profits. When a price
moves up approximate 30% after it has already
moved up nicely, that is the time to start
reducing the position. Will it go higher?
Could be, but the Candlestick formation
clearly illustrates exuberant buying.
Mr. Bigalow wants it to be made clear that
this chart is not being used in a bragging
manner. The point of using Candlestick signals
is being able to identify trades that have
high upside profit potential. Do all Candlestick
signals provide big profits? Definitely
not! But the Candlestick signals put investors
into situations that have the potential
of creating big profits. Once that trade
is working, being able to use the signals
to manage a trade is important. Understanding
what the signals tell us provides an excellent
format for getting out of positions when
the probabilities say it is time to get
out and getting back in when the signals
tell us it is time to get back in.
The Candlestick signals also allow investors
to get out of positions that do not work.
These exits usually produce flat returns
or small losses. This is an excellent method
to cut your losses short and let your profits
run.
Market Direction - The
early part of the week showed severe weakness
in the Dow, as to be expected after an Evening
Star signal with stochastics in the overbought
area. The NASDAQ had formed a Shooting Star
that just barely touched the 50-day moving
average. That was followed a couple of days
later by a Bearish Engulfing signal. This
produced a couple down days. Thursday formed
a Bullish Engulfing signal with stochastics
just getting into the overbought area. The
buying was confirmed in the Dow although
the Dow stochastics had not gotten back
to the oversold condition. In market conditions
such as these, the short recommendations
of the early part of the week worked effectively
but rapidly started showing some bottoming
action.
DOW

The recommendation to remain in short positions
as well as retaining the long positions
this past week was the proper mixture of
portfolio positioning. However, the evidence
of continued buying on Friday confirmed
the Bullish Engulfing signal in the NASDAQ.
The buying in the DOW also breached the
recent high from the previous week and closed
within a few points of the high of December.
The confirmation of the Bullish Engulfing
signal in the NASDAQ from Thursday would
have been a clear signal to start covering
short positions on Friday.
NASDAQ

This now puts the portfolio positioning
back into a relatively “long”
standing. The next logical target is the
50-day moving average for the NASDAQ again.
It should imply that the next couple of
days, at least, should see positive trading.
Unless the NASDAQ breaks through the 50-day
moving average with reasonable force, a
sideways market may be developing. Fortunately
for the Candlestick investor, this makes
finding the strong buy and sell signals
that much more relevant. It pinpoints which
sectors/industries/stocks are performing
better than the rest of the markets.
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Newsletter Special
You should never be put in a position where
you do not understand why trades are being
made for your account. Whether those positions
are being put on in your managed account,
or a hedge fund, or your own personal trading,
you should have a full understanding of
whether those funds are being put in the
right positions at the right time. The Candlestick
signals applied with Candlestick analysis
will become the education process for understanding
how to maximize your potential returns in
your own trading or being able to analyze
whether a money manager has any concept
of correctly timing the markets.
Good Investing!
- The Candlestick Forum Staff
www.
candlestickforum.com
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