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February 26, 2010
Spot Price
The spot price of a stock, stock option, or futures contracts is the current price, the price at which it can be bought or sold today. This is the price for immediate settlement, payment and delivery. In options trading the spot price is the stock price at which the stock shares sell at the time the options contract is settled. The strike price is the stock price at which the contract is settled. The difference between the spot price and the strike price is the profit or loss in the transaction, plus or minus the premium paid.

The spot price of stock shares takes into account the anticipated future value of the stock. The spot price rises and falls with stock market news of anticipated earnings, other activity in related market sectors, and technical analysis of the stock. In commodity trading a spot price of a perishable commodity is just the price today. For example, if a trader buys gold futures for December delivery and it is February the gold will not spoil over the intervening 10 months. This is not necessarily true of California grapefruit which will eventually go bad if not consumed.

In futures contracts and options trading the spot price is the focus of trading activity and current contract price. If stock price factors change then the difference between the expected, future price of the stock and the strike price changes. This makes the options contract more or less valuable which can lead to profit or loss for traders. If the spot price does not move away from the strike price with time the value of the options or future contract diminishes and if the price moves in a direction where the buyer will make money when exercising the option the option is said to be in the money.

To predict the spot price at which an options contract will expire, the trader will use the same basic stock investing tools that he or she uses to trade stock. Both fundamental analysis and tools such as a price to earnings ratio are helpful in predicting future stock prices. The investor will follow the current stock price and attempt to exercise the options contract at the maximum difference between spot price and strike price. This is possible in United States options trading as options can be exercised at any point up until expiration whereas in European options trading the option can only be exercised at expiration.

Spot price is a term typically used in futures, options trading, and, to a degree in day trading. It is usually not used for investing in stock. Market price is a more common term for the current price of a stock as used in long term investing. The terminology used by those interested in value investing, for example, is more focused on fundamental analysis of return on investment and retained earnings. Where the focus in on long term holdings and rates of return on long term investments the daily stock price is of less importance to the investor than financial health and prospects of the company involved. The current price only becomes a concern if, over time, it stagnates resulting in poor returns on investment.

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February 23, 2010
Quick Ratio
One measure of the financial stability of a company is its ability to immediately retire current debt if necessary. The quick ration and the acid test are two similar calculations mean to determine if a company can immediately deal with debt. The difference is that the acid test typically does not include accounts receivable. Both calculations include cash and cash equivalents, marketable stocks and bonds, and current liabilities. The quick ratio, acid test, and a test measuring if a company can pay debts within a year, the current ratio, are used in fundamental analysis. These are considered basic stock information. . In understanding the stock market a knowledge of the measures of company strength and the ability to use these calculations to compare other wise similar stocks is important in picking stocks.

The quick ratio has cash and cash equivalent, marketable securities and accounts receivable as it numerator and current liabilities as its denominator. The higher the ratio, the greater the company’s liquidity will be. A ratio of 1 to 1 is desirable. A strict definition of the acid test only takes into account cash and marketable securities in the numerator and uses current liabilities in the denominator. As we can see it leaves out accounts receivable as an asset in the equation. A third ratio is the current ratio which is simply current assets over current liabilities. This is considered the company’s ability to pay off current debts within a year. The ability to pay off debts as well as a low price to earnings ratio are important in value stock investing. These ratios are somewhat static measures compared to cash flow ratios.

Cash flow ratio is the ratio of cash market cap divided by operating cash flow. Theory has it that the lower cash flow ratios are the more successful companies will be. Stock market analysis may look at these various ratios differently at different times. For example, a company is considered healthier with a quick ration, acid test, or current ratio above one as this information implies that the company will not get caught short due to production problems, difficulty getting a product on line, etc. However, a ratio of two, three, or higher implies that the company is not paying enough in stock dividends or is otherwise not using its profits effectively.

The quick ratio and its cousins may be especially important when looking at
penny stocks investing or small cap stock investing. Small companies, especially start up companies often do not have bank credit and fail if they cannot pay current liabilities. No matter how promising a product line or how impressive a business plan is a company that runs out of cash typically fails unless it can sell stock to raise capital. Types of large cap stocks that can get buy perfectly well with a low quick ratio, thank you, are large restaurant and grocery chains that move their inventory through very rapidly. In these cases inventory commonly turns over before accounts payable come due so the company comfortably stays ahead of debt even with a lower ratio. Knowing how to do stock analysis using a quick ratio is useful in any number of investing strategies as it tells investors and traders how to pick stocks that are financially healthy.

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February 19, 2010
Initial Public Offering
An initial public offering (IPO) is when a company offers shares of stock to the public for the first time. A company typically uses the services of underwriting brokerage firms or other companies experienced in picking the best offering price and timing for the offering. Initial public offerings can be a startup company looking for capital to bring products to market or it may be an established private company looking to be registered on a stock exchange and to sell stock to raise capital without borrowing. IPO’s can be excellent investments. However, buying stock in an IPO can also be risky as there is often a series of ups and downs in stock price after issuance of the IPO.

To find out what companies are making initial public offerings or have just made them a simple stop at the hoovers.com web site will provide a list as well as basic financials. When investing in or
trading stock in IPO’s fundamental analysis is important but so are a firm grasp of Candlestick basics and Candlestick pattern formations. Add a fair amount of psychology of investing and the investor is ready. A well managed IPO underwriting firm can do such a good job of presenting the company to the public that the IPO sells out quickly at the offering price. If the underwriting firm has really done its job the IPO will have been all over the stock market news and discussed in numerous stock market newsletters. This degree of attention will often serve to drive up the price of stock shares as those who did not buy at the offering price (maybe the IPO was sold out) try to get in on a good thing.

IPO’s are easily subject to fundamental analysis of the
value stock investing sort as they have products, belong to market sectors, and have competitors with whom to compare. However, technical analysis with tools such as Candlestick chart analysis can be a different matter because the stock has never traded on the stock market before. It has no trading history! Over the longer term IPO’s may represent winning stocks or losing stocks but in the days after the initial public offering there can often be a predictable pattern to the stock prices of IPO’s. A common pattern is that a popular IPO sells out very early so that no stock is available at the initial offering price. Then the stock is bid up substantially.

As an example, one who is paying a premium for the stock is a naïve individual who engages in occasional buying for
long term investing and who believes all the hype put out by the underwriting firm. He thinks the stock will be a great long term addition to his portfolio. Another is the day trader who sees high volume and a stock trend. The trader jumps on and rides the stock up, watching market volume and is alert for pull backs. The trader is more interested in trend analysis that the long term prospects of the stock. A trader, or investor, who makes a study of IPO’s will see a number of unique patterns. For example, one common pattern is for the price of the stock to rise after the IPO, over correct downwards, and then gradually climb to a more stable price. The judicious use of Candlestick chart formations can be useful in this instance to make profits on initial public offerings.

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February 16, 2010
Securities and Exchange Commission
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is the government agency that is the first line of responsibility for the oversight of the securities industry in the United States. The Securities and Exchange Commission oversees each stock exchange and the options markets. It is the SEC that oversees online trading, the online stock market, and says how much has to be in a margin account for traders to continue day trading. The SEC has been around since 1934 when it was created to oversee the stock market after the market crash in 1929 and the ensuing Great Depression. The SEC is under a lot of pressure and still receiving criticism today for an apparent lack of sufficient oversight leading up to the most recent stock market crash and worst set of American economic conditions since the Great Depression.

The SEC provides a number of services important to the stock investor. For example the SEC requires that all companies listed on all stock markets submit quarterly and annual financial statements detailing the performance of their companies and a narrative statement regarding the past quarter or year. The overall purpose is to make stock market investing fair for all investors and traders. Typically all companies send these reports to everyone that owns shares of stock in a company. Anyone else can use the SEC’s EDGAR database to access company reports. Although the SEC will investigate complaints of fraud and other abuse they will never comment on ongoing investigations.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is empowered to investigate all cases of potential abuse in the stock market and can prosecute civil cases. The SEC works with law enforcement agencies when criminal matters arise. Insider trading is perfectly legal but it needs to be reported to the SEC and is available in the database. The granting of stock options to employees is also legal but can cross over into gray areas in the SEC’s jurisdiction. The day trader, someone interested in value investing, and the like need never give much thought to the SEC or its activities. However, when officers of a company with insider information buy stock or sell stock based upon such privileged information it is illegal and, when caught, need to deal with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC’s jurisdiction is not over those making stock market investments. It is over the stock exchanges, companies that trade on them, and the brokers and dealers who conduct trading.

The reason that the SEC investigates questions of illegal insider trading is that the SEC is charged with making sure that all stock market information is equally available to all investors. Successful stock market strategies are based upon the assumption that the system, albeit volatile at times, is basically fair. Stock market trading tools, likewise, depend upon their stock market analysis of past market events being applicable to future events. The SEC may be seen as a thorn in the side of those interested in taking advantage of their managerial positions to illegally gain profit. However, the Securities and Exchange Commission and its work is what helps traders benefit from the market.

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February 12, 2010
Trading Range
Some stocks tend to cycle in value between a high and a low. When this cycle establishes itself the price range between the high and the low is a trading range. The top of the range is a resistance price or resistance zone. The bottom of the trading range is the support price or support zone. Many cyclical stocks have businesses very closed tied to the economy. Traders attempt to buy stocks at the bottom of the range and sell at the top. Likewise traders will short a stock at the top of the range and buy at the bottom. The nightmare of stock trading is that stock will break out of the range, up or down, just as he or she has made the trade. Good management of investment risk comes into play at this point to cut losses.

Trading between support zones is called range trading. In its purest form range trading assumes that a stock will always stay within its trading range. This is not always the case. Often a stock will be trending up but still display a cyclical pattern. A construction equipment maker, a steel maker, or an auto manufacturer will do well in a strong economy and will cycle down in a poor economy. If the company never grows it may well trade within the same trading range for years. However, a well managed company may well grow its assets and find that in successive cycles its support zone and its resistance zone move higher. Integral to trading within a range is
analyzing chart pattern reversals. Understanding candlestick charting techniques and candlestick pattern formations helps the day trader and investor buy stock or sell stock at the support or resistance zones to help maximize profit.

Traders often look for
stock price breakouts. News of a buyout or market news of a merger concerning a stable old company can drive a stock price higher or send shares of stock lower. Once a stock breaks out of its trading range it can trend up or down or simply settle into a new trading range. Fundamental analysis is important at such a time to help understand how the stock will perform next.

In range trading it is important to have a clear strategy for cases in which the market performs differently than expected. Only committing a portion of a trading account to
stock trades provides a valuable cushion in case of an unexpected stock price breakout. A sound investment strategy is to determine in advance when to exit unprofitable trades before they become disastrous trades. An important part of trading within a range is choosing what stocks to buy or trade in. Not all stocks cycle within a trading range. There are small startup companies that are good growth stocks. If successful these stocks will move upward in multiples. On the other hand many small startups eventually and abruptly fail. Understanding market fundamentals and closely following fundamentals of the company is essential. When such a stock matures it often becomes cyclical and trades in a range.

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February 9, 2010
Protect Investment Capital
Managing investment risk is learning to protect investment capital. Investors or traders can protect capital by diversifying an investment portfolio, placing limit orders on stocks, and to never trade or invest all capital at once in one stock market investment. No investor or trader ever is 100% successful with every investment and every trade. The ability to cut losses before they become huge is a learned skill. Sometimes stocks break out of support and resistance zones. Sometimes stocks are subject to substantial corrections. Knowing companies and market sectors helps determine if a drop in stock price is a correction or a new downward trend. Having a standing rule of when to cut loses and protect investment capital allows investors and traders to come back from losses. Not doing so is a too common story when investors and traders hold on to a losing stock all the way to bankruptcy, the company’s and theirs.

Day trading is done with a
margin account. SEC rules require a minimum of $25,000 in a margin account to continue trading as a day trader, or pattern day trader to use the SEC’s term. Scalping in small amounts on a volatile stock trading at high volume can be very profitable as the day trader follows an upward or downward trend. However, volatile stocks are just that. They follow a trend and then abruptly reverse course. If the day trader gets caught on the losing side of the trade he or she needs a plan in place to protect investment capital. Not all trades are winners. Getting out of a losing trade, fast, preserves capital for the next trade or investment. A useful way to view capital is as one of the traders stock investing tools or trading tools, just like the trade station and stock trading software. Just like a trader will take care of the other tools of the trade he or she needs to protect the capital needed to invest.

Trading options can also be a way to protect investment capital. For example, a trader believes that a stock will go up. He or she purchases a call option on 100 shares of the stock. If the stock goes up he or she will purchase at the strike price and sell at the spot price making a tidy profit. However, the company has a bad quarter and the stock drops precipitously. Because the trader does not buy any stock all he or she loses are the premiums paid on options contracts.

Another example of how to protect investment capital with
stock options is an investor in a startup company that has been very successful. The stock price has gone up substantially. The investor believes that the stock will go up more so he or she does not want to sell just right now. However, the stock is in one of the more volatile market sectors and may very well experience a substantial correction. The trader purchases put option sufficient to cover his investment. This type of “insurance” costs the stock premium and lasts the length of the options contracts. If the stock goes up, the investor benefits, minus the cost of the premium. In situations like these if the stock goes down investors exercise put options and sell stocks at thee strike prices buying again at the much lower spot price. This is an excellent way to protect investment capital.

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February 5, 2010
Profit Taking

Generalized profit taking temporarily depresses a stock price during an upward stock trend. Traders and investors take profits in order to lock in gains on an advancing stock. A famous old saying is that you don’t have a profit on a stock until you take a profit. The temporary drop in stock price from profit taking is different from a correction in which the market analysis of a stock changes, driving the price down. In fact, investors and traders often take profits when they anticipate a correction.

Taking short term profits is the heart of day trading. The point for the day trader is to buy stock and sell stock during market fluctuations throughout the day. Someone who only does long term investing will typically only engage in profit taking after a substantial run up in a stock price and when he or she believes that the stock is ready for a large correction. Long term investors will usually stay invested during swings in stock price caused by profit taking. In value investing the investor will take their profits and get out of a stock position when the stock has increased in price to where it represents normal value and not a buying opportunity.

Profit taking usually occurs after rapid advances in stock prices. The thinking is usually that the market has gotten ahead of itself and will correct. Thus many wise traders and investors “take a little off the table.” This is one of the simple stop loss strategies that help reduce investment risk. When a stock drops back with profit taking and then advances again it’s often an indication the stock is going to continue its advance.

One of the basics of stock market investing is to know how to set reasonable goals for investing in stock. There are many investors that will set a goal, based upon market analysis, of how much gain to reasonably expect from a stock before periodic profit taking turns into a substantial correction. Getting greedy and trying to milk the last two of three percent profit out of a stock too often results in the investor losing much if not most of his or her gains.

The same applies in day trading. Setting reasonable limits, getting out of a position bit by bit and taking profit may seem to be giving away profits but, over the long term, this sort of sound trading strategy is more profitable.

Many investors get irritated at the dip in a stock price as investors take profits as it, temporarily, reduces the value of their stock shares. However, this is part of what makes the stock market work. The long term value of a stock has to do with the success and prospects of the company’s business. However, no matter how attractive a company is, its stock needs to compete with others for buyers. If other opportunities arise in other market sectors, a company’s stock price may correct. Traders may take profits from a successful stock and put their money in alternative investments. It is all part of a fluid and open market which, in the end, provides the investor with the best set of investing opportunities.


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February 2, 2010
Standard and Poors

The Standard and Poors 500 is a weighted stock market index of the largest 500 companies with common stocks in the United States. The S&P 500 is weighted by capitalization of the companies and is commonly followed, along with the Dow Jones Industrial average. These market indexes are considered bellwethers of the American economy. A number of mutual funds, pension funds, and exchange traded funds buy stocks in the Standard and Poors 500 in appropriate quantities so that they track the performance of the S&P 500.

The Standard and Poors company dates back to 1860 when Henry Varnum Poor began to compile comprehensive information about the operations and finances of United States Railroad Companies. Later the company added information about non railroad companies and became Standard and Poors. By 1966 Standard and Poors was bought out and became the division of the McGraw Hill Company that publishes research on bonds and stocks. Standard and Poors also is a credit rating agency for public debt and for corporate bonds. It issues long term and short term ratings for the debt of both private and public corporations. Borrowers are rated from AAA to D with multiple steps in between. S&P periodically announces possible upgrades and downgrades on the quality of corporate bonds. This guidance in turn often affects the stock price of the companies in question.

For investors interested in detailed information about a possible stock market investment, S&P publishes equity research and funds ratings as well as credit ratings. Bonds rated AAA down to BBB by S&P are considered investment grade. Non investment grade bonds are also referred to as junk bonds. These bonds carry a higher risk of default. However, investors have found that by pooling many junk bonds in an investment portfolio that it is possible to average out the investment risk involved and many junk bond portfolios have done quite well over the years.

Besides publishing the S&P 500, Standard and Poors publishes a market index on at least one stock exchange in each of several countries throughout the world. These indexes cover large and small cap stocks as well as investments such as REIT’s and preferred stocks. The S&P Small Cap Index and Mid Cap Index often provide a different view of the US economy than the S&P 500. S&P’s 48 issue a year stock market analysis is “The Outlook” and is available both online and in print version.

Information from Standard and Poors has been sought and trusted for years. However, S&P and other credit rating agencies are still heavily criticized for giving top credit ratings to the collateralized debt obligation market in 2007 before it suffered huge losses. A common criticism of S&P is that companies pay to have their debt issues rated. Many feel this practice leads to a conflict of interest and inaccurate debt ratings. Much has been said about the recent stock market meltdown. The failure of many to conduct independent and skeptical market analysis is partly to blame. The failure of many to use time honored analysis techniques such as Candlestick chart formations to obtain an accurate view of where the market was going added to bad stock picking contrary to the basics of stock investing.


Online Stock Market Reviews presented live via the internet by Stephen Bigalow
High Profit 

Candlestick Patterns Book
WORDEN Brothers - TeleChart 2007
The Candlestick Forum Option Training
5-Star 

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