Daily Market Comments - April 2017
04/28/17 - Stock Market Comments
The market conditions are much more illustrated on the candlestick charts versus trying to anticipate the market trend based upon each individual market index on a daily basis. The breakout through resistance for the Dow, S&P 500, and the NASDAQ has not been diminished. When the Dow is trading slightly lower and the NASDAQ is trading higher, it clearly illustrates the lack of any major change of investor sentiment, the uptrend remains in progress. The Candlestick Patterns, such as the Frypan Bottom, remains very relevant.
04/27/17 - Stock Market Comments
The anticipated consolidation of the market indexes is demonstrating that it is profit-taking/consolidation utilizing a very simple analysis. The Dow and S&P 500 are trading slightly lower while the NASDAQ continues to trade higher. This observation provides the common sense analysis that the markets are not in any stage of reversing, merely profit-taking and/or shifting funds from sector to sector. Big gap up's through the resistance levels of the past few days of trading still provides strong evidence that excessive bullish sentiment has moved the markets into a new wave.
04/26/17 - Stock Market Comments
Expect some consolidation days, especially in the stocks that have moved up excessively over the last few days of trading. However, the market indexes should be going higher based upon the gap ups through the resistance levels over the past few days. Anticipate more upside in the markets. Obviously the political rhetoric out of Washington will have an influence on the overall market trend but currently investor sentiment is showing very bullish results. Look for a potential move of wave three of the Dow towards the 24,000 area. This is not a projection trying to induce great optimism to get investors excited, it is merely the analysis based upon the candlestick chart patterns of this current market uptrend. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.
04/25/17 - Stock Market Comments
The chicken or the egg? Yesterday's gap up through the resistance level in the major indexes revealed a new investor sentiment. Likely the start of wave three to the upside. Today the markets are up strong again, gapping up. When witnessing a trend that starts with strong gap ups, it usually leads to much more upside. This is a good indication the next major move is in progress. The chicken or the egg? The stronger this market becomes, the more everybody becomes confident in the overall economic conditions, positive sentiment starting to feed upon itself.
04/21/17 Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading has more relevancy to the bullish analysis than merely the strong trading of Today. Today's gap up in the NASDAQ broke out through an obvious two-month resistance level. The Dow and the S&P 500 gapped up through the down trending resistance level, as well as gapping up through the 50 day moving average. Obviously it will be important to see the strength of the markets maintained going into the close. If it does, the prospects for the next wave to the upside is very strong.
04/21/17 - Stock Market Comments
Definite indecision today! It's not unusual to see a day of consolidation following a big day of trading. However, the indecision is also occurring right at obvious resistance levels for each of the indexes. Although Yesterday's Bullish trading reduced the prospects of a market selloff, today's trading is not producing confirmation that a Bullish Trend is about ready to start. Monday will be an important day to see whether the resistance levels are going to continue to act as resistance or whether bullish sentiment can push up through those levels.
04/20/17 - Stock Market Comments
The indecisive nature of the market trend has been illustrated with the Dow and S&P 500 not able to get back up above the T-line. At the same time, the NASDAQ and the transportation index have traded above the T-line for the last few days. The T-line is a very important confirming factor, until we see all the indexes trading above the T-line, there will not be any decisive trend movement. Today's positive trading is breaking the Dow and the S&P above the T-line. But like Yesterday's trading that had started off with the indexes trading positive, that strength needs to be witnessed going into the close today.
04/19/17 - Stock Market Comments
The markets remain in an indecisive trading mode. The NASDAQ is showing a good strong Bullish Chart, as well as the transportation index. The transportation index is currently forming a trend kicker signal. If it closes above the T-line today, the prospects of a Scoop Pattern set up is highly probable, indicating more upside.
04/18/17 - Stock Market Comments
A learning experience – the positive trading yesterday in the market indexes did not create reversal signals, merely an up day. Because it was not a reversal signal, it can be assumed there was not any major change of investor sentiment. Today's lower trading confirms. Nothing has changed in the current trend/nature of the market. It continues to move in a sideways mode, making each individual chart the predominant analytical factor.
04/17/17 - Stock Market Comments
Currently the market indexes are creating Bullish Harami signals at the same levels the indexes bottomed out 3 to 4 weeks ago. However, the optimal word is currently. To create Bullish Harami signals today, the indexes need to close near the high end of their trading range. A close back near or below today's open and most of the indexes would indicate the current downtrend was still in progress. Until the market indexes can show enough strength to close backup above the T-line, the downtrend has to be considered to be still in effect. Keep both long and short positions in the portfolio.
04/13/17 - Stock Market Comments
The NASDAQ is showing strength at the 50 day moving average. However, the Dow and S&P 500, currently trading slightly positive, still are trading below the T-line. This has to be viewed with the probability that the slow downtrend is still likely to be in progress. Support at the 50 day moving average, starting another uptrend, definitely requires a bullish reversal signal and a close above the T-line. Until then, let the short positions continue their downward trend until there is a definite reversal signal. This is why we recommend Trend Analysis.
04/12/17 - Stock Market Comments
The indexes have been trading below the T-line for the past 4 to 5 trading days. But each day has been a very indecisive trading day, Doji's. The sideways motion of the market would be obvious when analyzing any chart, however a candlestick chart provides additional evidence that the sideways motion of the market is including indecisive trading days. This clearly reveals there is no conviction from either the Bulls or the Bears. What should this be telling us? To be prepared for a dramatic move, usually indicated by a gap one way or the other. Although the market direction is not doing anything, be ready.
04/11/17 - Stock Market Comments
If the markets close near the low end of their trading range, it will reveal that the indecisive trading over the past two weeks at the T-line was acting as a resistance level. The 50 day moving average has been acting as support. But if the Dow closes below the 50 day moving average, a downtrending channel will remain in progress. The NASDAQ is currently trading below the T-line and at the 50 day moving average. The indecisiveness/weakness of the markets are being blamed upon the lack of scheduling for tax cuts. Many long positions are showing a lack of bullish conviction whereas the short recommendations continue to move lower with more enthusiasm.
04/10/17 - Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading in the Dow is clearly reflective of the support at the 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ is still demonstrating reasonable strength, moving somewhat sideways over the past few weeks but still showing bullish signs as the trend stays within reasonable range of the recent highs. Note that today's trading has been a very slow and consistent move to the upside, continuing to reveal there is no exuberance yet experienced in this steady uptrend. A good strategy remains having predominantly long positions in the portfolio with a few short positions.
04/07/17 - Stock Market Comments
The markets are absolutely flat. What does this tell us about investor sentiment? Usually absolutely nothing, no bullish force or bearish force. However, the lack of selling today does have some significant information. A missile launch in Syria, a terrorist attack in Sweden, much lower job numbers than expected, and this information is not creating any selling in the market. The lack of selling on potentially bad news is taking into account the overall bullish confidence that is building up in the American economy. The bullish charts are still working, the bearish charts are still working. This is why it’s important to project price targets.
04/06/17 - Stock Market Comments
The indecisive nature of the market continues, illustrated by the waffling/sideways trading of the indexes above and below the T line. Many people ask, "What does it mean when you see the waffling at the T-line? How does that help you?" The answer is very simple. It means there is no decisive direction in investor sentiment. Candlestick charts allow you to recognize when it is time to be long or short. Candlestick charts also tell you when there is no market trend, creating a different trading strategy.
04/05/17 - Stock Market Comments
Yesterday's left/right combo in the Dow, after the previous day's hammer/Doji supported at the 50 day moving average, made for very simple trend analysis. A positive open today would be confirmation of the left/right combo. This candlestick pattern produces a very high probability trend result. The confirmation of a gap up is a very strong indication investor sentiment is ready to take the market higher provided the markets close near the high end of the trading range today. Stay predominantly long. Expect more upside.
04/04/17 - Stock Market Comments
The market indexes are obviously not going up and they're not going down, currently the Dow is trading slightly positive while the NASDAQ is trading slightly negative. The operative word is slightly. The Dow and S&P 500 are trading between the T-line and the 50 day moving average, sideways. The NASDAQ is trading just above the T-line but has an obvious resistance level at the recent highs. Until there is a major break one way or the other, each individual stock chart remains the prominent evaluation factor.
04/03/17 - Stock Market Comments
Today's selling, taking the S&P 500 back below the T-line and the Dow showing that it cannot get up through the T-line, indicates more slow downside drift, making the 50 day moving average the likely target over the next few days. The S&P 500 and the Dow are showing a downward trend channel while the NASDAQ continues to trade sideways.