Daily Market Comments - July 2016
07/28 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow and S&P 500 have now pulled back to where they are trading below the T-line again. The NASDAQ continues to show strength, at least not any great selling influence. The Dow and S&P 500 have been showing bearish sentiment, although relatively slight, over the past five or six days of trading. A close below the T-line today would be strong evidence that the pullback might be continuing with more enthusiasm. Be prepared to take profits on long positions. Having a few short positions in the portfolio with the market conditions showing tiredness is viable.
07/26 - Stock Market Comments
The T-line continues to act as a relevant indicator, showing the trend remains bullish. Each day continues to show one index not moving very much while another index trades slightly positive, merely indicating the movement of funds from one sector to another. The analysis remains simple, as long as the indexes are not showing sell signals and trying to close below the T-line, the slow steady summer uptrend remains in progress.
07/22 - Stock Market Comments
Another lazy Friday of summer. The market is trading absolutely flat, the NASDAQ is up a little bit, the Dow is down a little bit. The transportation index is doing a bullish Harami right on the T-line. There is nothing showing any great conviction to the upside nor the downside. This will probably be a good day to play golf.
07/21 - Stock Market Comments
Today's early selling in the Dow keeps the market conditions the same as the past week or so. Indecisive lack of selling pressure but also not showing any huge bullish sentiment. The NASDAQ trading slightly positive and the S&P 500 basically flat merely reveals investor sentiment is continuing in a very slow but slightly positive trend. This may be the summer doldrums. Until there is a dramatic sell signal in the markets, continue to stay predominantly long in the charts that are showing good strength, trading above the T-line.
07/20 - Stock Market Comments
The market analysis remains the same, as long as the indexes do not show a confirmed sell signal, the uptrend remains in progress. The consolidation of the past few days has allowed the T line to remain reasonably close to the uptrend. This reveals that there is no exuberant buying in the trend so far. Continue to stay predominantly long, any short positions should maintain compelling selling evidence.
07/19 - Stock Market Comments
Today's lack of conviction in the markets continues to reveal consolidation/profit-taking after a nice strong bullish move over the past four weeks. Be prepared to take profits on confirmed sell signals. However, numerous bullish charts are not showing any strong reversals, merely sideways consolidation. Candlestick charts allow investors to visually witness when the selling has definitely taken control. Until that time, hold long positions.
07/18 - Stock Market Comments
The NASDAQ is showing good strength today, potentially forming another little J-hook pattern to the upside. The Dow and S&P are also trading positive but not with any great strength so far today. Although the uptrend remains in progress, there still remains signs of a possible profit-taking reversal. The gap up in the indexes on Thursday, as well as moving away from the T-line in the overbought condition, makes the prospects of a reversal more likely. Continue to stay long but be prepared to take some profits on signs of weakness in the market.
07/14 - Stock Market Comments
There is a warning flag today. Where do most people buy? They buy exuberantly at the top. Exuberance can be illustrated with a gap up in the overbought condition. This is what has occurred in the Dow and the S&P 500. Does this mean the uptrend is over? Not necessarily, but be more diligent as far as watching for the selling/sell signals. Continue to stay long but be prepared to take profits if today's strength starts dissipating.
07/13 - Stock Market Comments
The indecisive trading in the markets this morning is not unexpected. Wave three is now approximately the same length as wave one of the Dow's J-hook pattern. The indexes have moved away from the T-line, creating the expectation of some consolidation. The markets could move sideways or pullback until the T-line catches up. Expects some profit-taking in this area.
07/12 - Stock Market Comments
The uptrend/J-hook pattern continues in the market indexes. Today's trading currently demonstrates a solid day in the Dow, S&P 50 and the NASDAQ. The most compelling chart today is the transportation index up, up strong and forming a Doji sandwich, illustrating the 200 day and 50 day moving average are not acting as a resistance level. Continue to stay predominantly long but expects some profit-taking with the indexes moving away from the T-line.
07/11 - Stock Market Comments
As anticipated, the breakout of the resistance levels on Friday are showing the investor sentiment is now in a new bullish trend. The NASDAQ continues to gap up to the resistance level of the recent highs. The Dow and S&P 500 have broken through the highs. The J-hook pattern in the Dow at the resistance level produced the high probability that the breakout to new highs was about ready to occur. Look for a little bit more upside but then be prepared for some short-term profit-taking.
07/08 - Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading has clearly revealed the Doji sandwich breakout in the NASDAQ is putting it well above the downtrend in resistance level. The Dow and S&P 500 has broken through their resistance levels. Today's strength needs to be continued into the close to illustrate the new uptrend breakout remains in progress. Stay predominantly long.
07/07 - Stock Market CommentsToday's positive trading, a small gap up through the resistance level in the NASDAQ, implies that the next wave to the upside is in progress. The Dow and S&P 500 are currently nudging the upper resistance level. Continue to hold long positions with the expectation that the bullish trend is being confirmed, especially by the NASDAQ.
07/06 - Stock Market Comments
The market pullback continues to toy with the T-line/50 day moving average area. These areas become an important piece of information. If they do not hold up at the support areas, the downtrend/drifting market conditions will continue. It will be very important to see if they hold the support levels today. Gold still remains the strong sector in this market. Holding long positions requires not seeing confirmed reversal signals.