Daily Market Comments - June 2016
06/30 - Stock Market Comments
The 50 day moving average currently is not acting as resistance for the Dow and S&P 500. The early morning consolidation is the usual trading mode when a trend is in an uptrend. The NASDAQ appears to be moving up toward the 250 day moving averages. Be careful of profit-taking, but as can be seen on the charts, a majority of the hard selling of last week is now been recovered. With the indexes coming back up into the previous trend channel, watch for some continued profit-taking. But stay predominantly long until any weakness in the markets appear.
06/24 - Stock Market Comments
On these type of trading days, huge knee-jerk reaction, the prudent strategy is not to do anything until the market settles down, which may take most of the morning. These are days were big profits can be made by using the five-minute and 10 minute charts.
06/23 - Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading is creating bullish trend kicker signals in all of the indexes, including the transportation index which had been the weak sister. It has moved all the indexes up above the T-line. A close near the high end of the trading range today would be the convincing factor. A kicker signal and a close above the T-line is a strong indicator that more upside will follow.
06/22 - Stock Market Comments
The market continues to confirm the basing/reversal signals of last week. Especially the Dow and S&P 500, a trend kicker signal through the T-line with today's positive trading forming a bullish Doji sandwich. This implies more upside, making the slow upward trend channel the likely analysis. Stay predominantly long, but there are still short positions that are working.
06/16 - Stock Market Comments
Yesterday's candles in the indexes is a clear indication of why the close is the most important aspect. After the indexes traded bullish all day, they sold off in the final hour. This was somewhat suspected based upon the stochastics had not quite yet reached the oversold condition and the indexes were still trading below the T-line. Today's trading has experienced a gap down in the oversold area, requiring a little bit more diligence as far as a potential reversal. Remember, if you see a gap down in the oversold conditions, start watching for a reversal. But until then, remain predominantly short. Numerous stocks traded positive yesterday but are trading lower again today. Gold stocks are acting strong with gold prices up strong today.
06/15 - Stock Market Comments
Today's bullish trading is creating possible candlestick reversal signals. Possible meaning if the markets continue to hold up going into the close, the NASDAQ will have shown a Doji reversal off the 200 day moving average. The S&P 500 will show a Doji reversal off the 50 day moving average and the transportation index will have formed a bullish Harami, indicating a trend channel could be in progress. The only caution indicator is the stochastics not yet into the oversold area, implying there may still be a day or two of consolidations in the lower trend ranges before a sustained uptrend might be starting. It will be important to see how the markets act going into the close.
06/14 - Stock Market Comments
The downtrend remains in progress. It is not unusual to see buying in the initial trading during a downtrend, as was seen in today's trading. However, when stochastics are still heading down, not in the oversold area yet, and the candlestick sell signals were very compelling, a Doji gap down through the T-line in the NASDAQ, early-morning buying has to be viewed with skepticism. Stay predominantly short until there is a compelling reversal signal in the market indexes.
06/13 - Stock Market Comments
Although the markets are not selling off great resiliency today, the fact that the markets close below the T-line on Friday after the Doji day of Thursday provides a strong probability the downtrend is likely to continue. Currently the Dow is used the 50 day moving average as support but also has use the T-line as resistance. Until there is a strong reversal signal and a close backup above the T-line, consider the downtrend in progress. There is a possibility of a trend channel in the NASDAQ, making the May lows as a viable target. The oriented more toward the short side in the portfolio.
06/10 - Stock Market Comments
The NASDAQ gap down well below the T-line today. Currently the transportation index and the S&P 500 are also trading just below the T-line after the Doji days yesterday. Currently the Dow, after trading below the T-line, is trading just above the T-line but it also opened lower after yesterday's Doji/Harami in the overbought condition. Unless there is a major bullish search by the end of the day, especially in the NASDAQ, anticipate more downside in this market.
06/09 - Stock Market CommentsThe NASDAQ gapped down today after yesterday's Doji day at the same level the NASDAQ topped out in mid April. The NASDAQ is currently trading right at the T-line. It will be extremely important to see where it closes today. A close below the T-line would now indicate a market reversal has occurred, with the pullback possibly coming back down to the lows of May, the bottom of the trend channel. If the markets do not pick up strength going into the close today, start taking profits. Crude oil is trading lower but has not done a reversal signal. Gold continues to trade higher.
06/08 - Stock Market Comments
Gold prices and crude oil prices are moving up strong today, continuing to make both of those sectors strong profit potentials. The strength of the overall market continues to be a very slow uptrend in progress. However, as long as there is not a severe reversal signal in the indexes, the uptrend should be in progress. Use the T-line as your final trend indicator.
06/07 - Stock Market CommentsThe J-hook pattern in the Dow is confirming today, indicating the uptrend should remain in progress, especially if the trading continues above the T-line. Currently there does not appear to be any great conviction from the buyers or the sellers today. However, this also demonstrates there is not any change of investor sentiment, the uptrend remains in progress.
06/03 - Stock Market Comments
It does not matter how the political rhetoric spins a dismal jobs report. It is what the investor sentiment interprets the jobs report that is important. Today the markets have pulled back significantly but without forming candlestick reversal signals. This should lead to suspicion that today's selling is more of a knee-jerk reaction versus a trend changer. Watch to see how the markets finish up the day. Gold and gold stocks are now coming back into play.
06/02 - Stock Market Comments
The trend analysis remains simple, as long as the indexes continue to close above the T-line the uptrend remains in progress. Currently the NASDAQ is trading right at the highs of April. It will be important to see what type of candlestick formation occurs in tomorrow's trading, resistance or a breakthrough.
06/01 - Stock Market CommentsToday's lower market trading still does not show any significant selling conviction. This is mostly illustrated in the NASDAQ that is currently trading lower but above where it opened today. The Dow and S&P 500 are showing indecisive selling based upon the hammer type signals so far today. The one criteria remains constant, as long as the indexes continue to close above the T-line, the uptrend remains in progress. The only index that is showing any question ability is the Dow. Stay predominantly long. There are a significant number of stocks continuing to trade positive today.