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Daily Market Comments - December 2015


12/31 - Stock Market Comments

Observe the obvious, which candlestick charts allow you to do with much more clarity. The indexes moved back up to the top of the trend channel and yesterday's bearish Harami  indicated there was not enough bullish sentiment to push through the upper resistance level. Today's lower trading confirms the Harami, making the trend channel analysis still the predominant prognosis.

12/30 - Stock Market Comments

Today's selling is the expected profit-taking after yesterday's big day. The important level is now the upper resistance level of the trend channel in the indexes. A breakout through that level would put the markets in wave three, a strong uptrend. But until that occurs, the sideways trend channel is still the predominant analysis.

12/29 - Stock Market Comments

Yesterday's trading, although trading lower most of the day, had one important factor, the indexes all close back up above the T-line. Today's positive trading reveals a double doji pattern, implying more upside. This continues the prospects of the indexes breaking out of the top of the trend channel, starting the next wave. Stay predominately long but the breakout through the top resistance level is the main criteria for continuing an uptrend.

12/24 - Stock Market Comments

Merry Christmas everybody. Today's markets will be closing at one o'clock. There were no pics today because a half-day session before Christmas usually does not have any significant movement. There are some good stock setups in progress.

12/23 - Stock Market Comments

Yesterday the indexes closed at the T-line area. Today's positive trading makes the 50 and 200 day moving averages the next viable target. This implies some steady buying for the next day or so. Market conditions have not changed, there are both good long positions and short positions working. Oil prices had been showing Doji days in the oversold area. Today's bullish trading indicates which direction they're currently taking crude oil prices.

12/22 - Stock Market Comments

Today's positive trading in the markets appear to be confirming the bullish Harami's of yesterday."Appear" is the important word, currently there is no great buying pressure after the markets have opened positive. This is still indicative of the nature of the current trend, slow, sideways, indecisive. Continue to analyze each chart as the primary analytical factor.

12/21 - Stock Market Comments

Today's positive trading in the indexes demonstrate the sideways channel remains in progress. The bias remains to the downside as long as the indexes are trading below the T-line. However, the lower channel support area remains a strong trend indicator. Bullish trading should be viewed with some suspicion until there is a confirmed candlestick buy signal in the indexes. Portfolios should be oriented more to the downside.

12/18 - Stock Market Comments

Although the sideways trading pattern continues in the indexes, strong bullish patterns continue. All recommendation again on PACB and OZM  is based upon a frypan bottom breakout, AVXL a T line crunch and the uptrend in SEDG continues by simply using the halfway point of Wednesdays candle as a stop. The Dow is currently trading at the lower edge of the wedge formation. It will be important to see if this area acts as support. Continue to have both long and short positions in the portfolio.

12/17 - Stock Market Comments

The indexes of all pullback to the T-line today. It would now be important to see whether the T-line acts as support from here. This is expected profit-taking after the buying going into the Fed meeting. The T-line will be an important factor for analyzing whether this is merely profit-taking or now that the rate hike has been implemented, is investor sentiment now looking to what the next economic factors will be. A close near the lower end of today's trading range will continue to put the sideways mode of the market in place versus a potential breakout of the upper resistance level.

12/15 - Stock Market Comments

Today's strength reveals a high probability of a market reversal after yesterday's bullish Harami's/hammer signals in the indexes. Additionally, the reversal signals occurred right at the same level the markets formed a bottom about a month ago. It now becomes important to see what the indexes would do at the T line area. Be prepared to shift the portfolio bias from predominately short to predominately long based upon strength going through the T line. Keep in mind, the T line is an important factor for acting as support and resistance.

12/14 - Stock Market Comments

Today's selling in the markets have brought the indexes back to a potential support levels with stochastics in the over sold condition, however there has not been any indication of candlestick reversal signals at these levels. Until there is the appearance of reversal signals and confirmation, the downtrend remains in progress. The portfolio should be oriented toward the short side with any long positions remaining above the T-line.

12/10 - Stock Market Comments.

The market trend continues to remain indecisive. The bearish factors are that the indexes are trading below the T-line. The bullish factors are bullish signals forming around the 50 day moving average/support level. Conflicting indicators provide a much more clear analysis of the visual trend of the market, sideways/indecisive. Each individual stock chart needs to be analyzed based upon its own signals/pattern.

12/09 - Stock Market Comments

Now can we see which direction they want to take this market? Definitely not! The sideways mode of this market is still in progress. Anticipate the sideways mode will continue until the 50 day moving average catches up. The most poignant indicator of a trend change will be a breakout, one way or the other, of the wedge formation that has formed in the indexes. The prudent strategy remains the same, have both long and short positions in the portfolio until there is a definite breakout one way or the other

12/07 - Stock Market Comments

Today's sign at the upper resistance level makes the possibility of a sideways wedge formation more pronounced. Currently the Dow and the S&P 500 are supporting right on the T-line. The magnitude of price movement in the indexes, especially the Dow, illustrate the continuation of indecisiveness between the Bulls and the bears. Whereas two weeks ago the market indexes were indecisive on a daily basis, forming Dojis, this past week has shown indecision but in a different manner, with big up days followed by big down days repeated. This demonstrates the lack of trend conviction.

12/04 - Stock Market Comments

Today's sign at the upper resistance level makes the possibility of a sideways wedge formation more pronounced. Currently the Dow and the S&P 500 are supporting right on the T-line. The magnitude of price movement in the indexes, especially the Dow, illustrate the continuation of indecisiveness between the Bulls and the bears. Whereas two weeks ago the market indexes were indecisive on a daily basis, forming Dojis, this past week has shown indecision but in a different manner, with big up days followed by big down days repeated. This demonstrates the lack of trend conviction.

12/03 - Stock Market Comments

The selling of yesterday indicated the potential uptrend in bullish sentiment had dissipated, making the market trend more of a sideways trajectory. The excuse is that the possibility of raising interest rates is the culprit. That is the excuse, reality which is illustrated by the candlestick charts/signals reveals there is no great bullish sentiment occurring in this market for the past month. The lack of direction continues to make having both bullish and bearish positions in the portfolio the logical strategy.

12/01 - Stock Market Comments

The T-line remains a trend factor. Today's trading needed to open positive and trade positive to indicate the T-line was continuing to act as a up-trending support. The uptrend remains in progress provided the indexes do not come back down through today's open. Stay predominately long but short positions continue to act well also.


 

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