Daily Market Comments - November 2015
11/30 - Stock Market Comments
The T-line continues to act as an important trend indicator. But until the indexes close below the T-line, assume the uptrend remains in progress. When market conditions get into a state of a very slow trend one way or the other, that is when having both long and short positions in the portfolio becomes prudent.
11/25 - Stock Market Comments
The markets nature, a very slow steady uptrend, will probably not move out of that mode on the day before Thanksgiving. The market will be open on Friday for one half of a day. More than likely no major change of investor sentiment is going to occur either today or on Friday. Stay predominately long, especially in the biotech area. However, continue to have a short or two in the portfolio.
11/24 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow and the S&P 500 have pullback today to the T-line area. The NASDAQ has gap down from a Doji and currently trading below the T-line. A close below the T-line in the NASDAQ would diminish any upside prospects and would at best indicate a sideways wedge formation was in progress. That same prognosis would imply to the Dow and the S&P 500 if they close below the T-line today. The wedge formation would indicate a lack of direction in the markets going into the end of the year. Continue to have long and short positions in the portfolio.
11/23 - Stock Market Comments
Nothing has changed the current uptrend. A simple analytical tool is when witnessing the premarket futures opening relatively flat it implies there is not any major change of investor sentiment of the current trend. Currently the trend analysis remains very simple, the uptrend is in progress until there is a close back below the T-line. A J-hook pattern set up is in progress.
11/19 - Stock Market Comments
Today's consolidation in the markets is not unexpected after a big move like yesterday. Watch to see if today's trading creates another Doji day, providing the prospect for a another Doji sandwich set up for tomorrow. Currently the trend analysis is easy, stay long as long as the indexes do not come back down through the T-line. The transportation index is showing strength, implying this market is not backing off.
11/18 - Stock Market Comments
All the indexes are currently nudging the 200 day moving average today. This is creating bullish Doji sandwiches. The transportation index has moved up nicely through the T-line. These are all bullish indicators provided the markets close near the top end of their trading range and especially if they close above the T-line/200 day moving average resistance levels. Long positions should be watched closely today. If the market indexes start backing off from the resistance levels, make sure long positions are continuing to demonstrate strength.
11/17 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow, S&P 500, and the transportation index have now touched the T-line. The NASDAQ is trying to move to that area. It would now be important to see what the indexes do at this level. A failure, obvious selling from these levels, would indicate the bounce to the T-line has been accomplished. Any long positions should be watched to see if they are failing and any short positions should be watched if the market indexes are able to be pushed up through the T-line.
11/16 - Stock Market Comments
Be careful of the bounce, keep in mind, during an uptrend it is not unusual to see selling in the morning followed by the continuation of the uptrend later in the day. The same scenario needs to be watched in the current market trend, it is not unusual during the downtrend's to see buying in the morning and selling in the latter part of the day. Before attempting to establish any long positions, wait to see if there's going to be continued buying going into the close. The 50 day moving average still remains a viable target to the downside.
11/13 - Stock Market Comments
The NASDAQ is currently trading right on the 200 day moving average with stochastics still heading down. The Dow and S&P 500, after sell signals and a close below the T-line, did not use the 200 day moving average as support, making the 50 day moving average the next likely target. The trend analysis is very simple. Stay short until you see candlestick reversal signals.
11/12 - Stock Market Comments
Today's selling so far has brought the Dow and the S&P 500 back down below the 200 day moving average, the suspected support level. With stochastics still heading down, it will be very important to see the indexes close back up above the 200 day moving average or else the 50 day moving average will become the next support level. It will be very important to be analyzing long positions at this point, making sure they do not have reversal signals and starting to close below their T-line's.
11/11 - Stock Market Comments
It should be noted that when the market indexes open higher today, they all opened at the T-line and then started selling off. Obviously this is an indication the Bulls have not taken back control. The expectation for the Dow and the S&P 500 is continued consolidation coming back to the 200 day moving average. This implies the market is not yet going to have renewed upward pressure. Continue to hold both long and short positions in the portfolio.
11/10 - Stock Market CommentsToday's weakness in the markets continue to indicate consolidation versus a full-scale reversal. This is evident with the fact that the transportation index is still trading positive while the other indexes are selling off. Additionally, numerous stocks that have been trading in an uptrend are still trading positive today. These factors indicate there is not a wholesale change of investor sentiment. Have both long and short positions in the portfolio.
11/9 - Stock Market Comments
After the market indexes have supported above the T-line for the past six weeks, today's bearish trading in the markets has to be watched to see where the markets close. Obviously a close below the T-line would indicate a change of investor sentiment. The likely prospect would be the Dow and the S&P 500 retracing back to the 200 day moving average to test it to see if it was going to act as support. This would imply a few days to the downside. If buying comes in before the end of the day, bringing the indexes back up above the T-line, expect the uptrend to remain in progress.
11/6 - Stock Market Comments
The markets continue to use the T-line as a support level. The past three days have demonstrated consolidation, forming indecisive candlestick signals on the pullback. This illustrates the lack of decisive selling and until the indexes and close below the T-line, assume the uptrend is still in progress. The profit-taking during the uptrend makes the uptrend more solid, there is no exuberance Incorporated in this trend.
11/5 - Stock Market Comments
Today's soggy trading in the market remains consistent with the nature of the uptrend, a couple strong days up, a couple indecisive days down. The important underlying factor is that the trading continues to stay above the T-line. Until that scenario changes consider the uptrend is in progress. A close below the T-line would demonstrate a change of investor sentiment.
11/4 - Stock Market CommentsThe nature of the market trend remains the same, backing and filling during the day but not yet any evidence of a candlestick sell signal, merely profit-taking. The underlying facet of the trend remains in progress, it continues to trade above the T-line, actually trading above the 3T-line.
11/2 - Stock Market Comments
The market indexes needed to open lower and trade lower today to confirm the potential candlestick sell signals that formed in Friday's trading. The positive open indicates the uptrend remains in progress as long as the indexes continue to trade above the T line.The transportation index is in the process of forming a McMuffin pattern. If it closes near the top end of its trading range today, the implication will be for more upside in the markets.