Daily Market Comments - September 2015
10/01 - Stock Market Comments
Although there were strong Morning Star signals in the Dow and the S&P 500 yesterday, the T-line still is a critical factor. Numerous short charts showed potential bullish reversal signals yesterday but continue to have a difficult time getting up through the T-line. A very simple analytical tool is requiring a candlestick buy signal and a close above the T-line.
09/30 - Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading in the markets is creating a MorningStar signal in the Dow and the S&P 500. However, the T-line is still a factor. Today's potential reversal signal requires strength going into the close. Until then, the trend still has to be assumed to be in a downtrend until the candlestick reversal signals are confirmed with closes above the T-line. This is all occurring with stochastics in the oversold condition. Short positions will need to be addressed by the end of the day.
09/29 - Stock Market Comments
Today's balance/positive trading should not be unexpected after the large selloff yesterday in the markets. However, although stochastics are already in the oversold condition, any buying in today's positive trading should be done with the realization that long trades might have to be closed out immediately if the markets continue to selloff. Today's positive trading, currently forming a bullish Harami, will require bullish trading going into the close. The markets could be reversing but today's potential signal needs confirmation tomorrow.
09/28 - Stock Market Comments
The downtrend remains in progress, the T-line continues to act as the confirmation of the evening star signal in the Dow last week. Continue to stay short, the biotech's remain weak. The bearish left/right combo that formed in the NASDAQ on Friday is confirming with lower trading today. This would imply a possible test of the recent lows. Stay predominately short.
09/24 - Stock Market Comments
The prognosis remains the same, the downtrend remains in progress until there is a candlestick reversal signal. The breakdown through the uptrend in support level and trading below the T-line puts the Dow chart with good prospects of having another downdraft like we saw four weeks ago after the breakdown from the dumpling top. The NASDAQ continues to trading down with gap downs, demonstrating strong selling pressures. Stay predominantly short, any long positions should be remaining above the T-line.
09/22 - Stock Market Comments
The Evening Star signal of last week in the indexes continue to be the predominant indicator. Today's lower trading indicates the T-line is not going to act as a support area. The gap down from the bearish signals and the NASDAQ show good strength to the downside. Any long positions that are not showing strength against this downtrend should be closed. Short positions should be added to the portfolio with the prospect of the markets going into a wave three to the downside.
09/21 - Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading puts the Dow and the S&P 500 just above the T-line, currently creating a bullish Harami. The NASDAQ, after a shooting star failure at the 50 day moving average and closing on Friday back at the T line area, is trading positive today providing a potential of a bobble pattern as long as the NASDAQ closes above the T-line. It will be important to see the Dow and the S&P 500 close above the T-line to indicate the uptrend is remaining in progress, although it should be a very slow uptrend. Continue to have both long and short positions in the portfolio.
09/18 - Stock Market Comments
Yesterday's shooting stars in the indexes created probabilities that profit-taking would be occurring today. The most compelling factor was the NASDAQ creating a shooting star, failing right at the 50 day moving average. Today's selling should continue to be viewed as profit-taking versus a full-scale reversal based upon the fact the NASDAQ is trading positive from where it opens today. This illustrates that buying is still continuing although the markets open lower. The Dow and the S&P 500 need to close above the T-line today to show the uptrend is still in progress, albeit very slow.
09/17 - Stock Market Comments
After breaking out of the wedge formation, the uptrend will remain in progress as long as the markets continue to trade above the T-line. The T-line remains a very important factor. AERI is a perfect example of why you want to stay long in a frypan bottom pattern unless there is a close back below the T-line. The combination of candlestick signals and patterns, and the T-line, produce extremely high probability/high profitability trade setups. The oil sector is showing strong buy signals. Stay predominantly long, any short positions should be compelling at this point.
09/16 - Stock Market Comments
Yesterday's trading took the indexes up toward the top of the resistance levels. Today's indecisive trading illustrates IF the uptrend is in progress, it still does not have any powerful conviction as of yet. Obviously the long positions should have more weight in the portfolio. Any short positions in the portfolio should have compelling weakness, no potential candlestick buy signals. Crude oil trading positive today is creating a bobble pattern, watch the oil stocks.
09/15 - Stock Market Comments
Once again the markets are trading in the opposite direction of the previous day. Today's positive trading still has the trading within the wedge formation in the Dow and the S&P 500. The NASDAQ is still trading in the sideways range. The wedge formation is getting towards a breaking point at the tip of the wedge. Be prepared for a strong move once a breakout occurs, either bullish or bearish. Continue to have both long and short positions in the portfolio.
09/14 - Stock Market Comments
The lack of direction in today's trading is in keeping with the wedge/sideways mode of the market. Today's excuse is that everybody is waiting for the Fed meeting. Market conditions still warrant evaluating each individual stock chart pattern on its own accord. Remain both long and short
09/11 - Stock Market Comments
The indecisive wedge that is forming in the Dow and the S&P 500 continues to get thinner. These patterns will show a definite move one way or the other upon breaking out of the wedge formation. Currently maintaining both long and short positions in the portfolio is still the predominant strategy.
09/10 - Stock Market Comments
Today's lack of conviction in the markets continue to demonstrate the sideways mode is still the predominant analysis. This makes each individual stock/sector the prominent criteria. Have both long and short positions established in the portfolio. The T-line remains a very relevant factor.
09/08 - Stock Market Comments
The markets continue in their whipsaw mode but there is one relevant factor. After the breakdown in the markets following the dumpling top, the recent bounce was right back up to the T-line. Until there is a definite buy signal, and significant/obvious strength, the market still has to be considered to be in a downtrend. Be careful of today's initial buying. Short positions still should be maintained in the portfolio.
09/03 - Stock Market CommentsYesterday's bullish harami in the Dow and the S&P 500 are showing bullish confirmation on today's positive trading. However, both indexes are trading smack dab on the T line. This becomes an important factor. If the indexes cannot get through the T line, the Bulls have not yet taken control. There are good bullish candlestick charts continuing to work in spite of the overall market whipsaws.
09/02 - Stock Market Comments
Today's buying in the indexes should be suspected as a balance. Currently, the 3 T-line is acting as a resistance level. Be cautious in buying anything today with the possibility that if the buying cannot be sustained, the bearish J-hook pattern continue.
09/01 - Stock Market CommentsThe indexes produced indecisive trading, Doji's, at the T-line area over the past couple of days. This provided the alert/suspicion that the Bulls were running out of steam after the bounce. Todays selling confirms the obvious failure of the T-line. If the markets close near the lower end of their trading range today, this is setting up a bearish J-hook pattern, meaning wave three to the downside will be in progress.