Daily Market Comments - March 2015
03/30 - Stock Market CommentsToday's positive trading is creating MorningStar signals and both the Dow and the S&P 500, provided the indexes close near the high end of their trading range today. The NASDAQ, after supporting at the 50 day moving average on Thursday gapped up today at the T-line. It will be important to see whether they can close the NASDAQ above the T-line. The markets are back in the whipsaw mode. The T-line still remains an effective indicator for both long and short positions in this type of market.
03/26 - Stock Market Comments
The NASDAQ has gapped down to the 50 day moving average area and is not trading off of that level currently, a Doji type day. The Dow is trading lower and is currently trading at the last bottom of three weeks ago. Nothing yet has indicated that the selling has stopped but these are important levels to watch for a potential reversal. Most long positions have been stopped out but the oil stocks continue to act well.
03/25 - Stock Market CommentsNone of the indexes are holding at the T-line. The NASDAQ had been showing indecisive selling over the past few days, today's selling has breached the T-line. Unless the market indexes can close above the T-line today, expect more pullbacks to support areas, moving averages and trend lines.
03/24 - Stock Market Comments
Today's trading has already demonstrated mild consolidation. After initially trading lower, the indexes are trading back up toward the top end of their trading range. This remains consistent with the uptrend still trading above the T-line. Note how the doubt in the biotech's yesterday have pretty well dissipated today. Stay with the strong charts, continuing to trade above the T-line.
03/23 - Stock Market Comments
The solidness of this market move is illustrated with the Dow trading higher and the NASDAQ opening lower but starting to trade up above where it opened. This indicates backing and filling during this market trend without any exuberance yet coming into the markets. The lack of investor sentiment continues to allow candlestick patterns, especially frypan bottoms, to continue to perform.
03/20 - Stock Market CommentsAlthough the Dow sold off hard yesterday, it did not close below the T-line. The other indexes were not showing bearish confirmation. Today's positive trading is a continuation of the uptrend that has not yet seen any sell signals and a close below the T-line. Anticipate a test of the recent highs in the Dow and the S&P 500. Note today's positive trading in the NASDAQ has gapped up through the J-hook breakout area. Look for more upside provided these markets do not come back and close at the lower end of their trading range today.
03/19 - Stock Market CommentsToday's backing and filling in the Dow is not being confirmed by the NASDAQ, a good indication the uptrend remains in progress when there is no consensus between the indexes. The NASDAQ has a good probability of breaking out into new recent highs, making a J hook pattern in progress. This would imply more upside. The lack of change of investor sentiment is making the frypan bottoms continue to work effectively,ESPR, GEVA, COUP.
03/18 - Stock Market CommentsThe T-line continues to remain an important component for the market trend analysis. Although the indexes are trading lower today, the T-line continues to act as a support level. As illustrated in the NASDAQ chart, the T-line is acting as support and the trading is above the open. This indicates there is no rampant selling in this market, merely backing and filling.
03/17 - Stock Market CommentsAlthough the markets of pullback today, the NASDAQ is demonstrating that there is not a rampant selling today. Even though the NASDAQ is down 10 points, it is trading above where it opened, indicating there is still bullish sentiment in that index. The S&P 500 is currently sitting right on the T-line. Continue to maintain both long and short positions in the portfolio with the bias toward the long side. The T-line continues to be an important factor both in the market trends as well as individual stock positions.
03/16 - Stock Market Comments
Today's positive trading is bringing the indexes up above the T-line, what they failed to do on Friday. Today's positive trading still requires a close above the T-line to make the Morning Star signal of late last week in effect. Currently both long and short positions are working well. However, a close above the T-line in the indexes today would start putting more emphasis on adding long positions to the portfolio.
03/13 - Stock Market CommentsAfter the Dow had a big day yesterday, creating a Morning Star signal, and closing right at the T-line, today we needed to see positive trading indicating the T-line was not an act as resistance. The current selling will provide a message by the end of the day. If it closes more than halfway down the bullish candle in the Dow of yesterday, the T-line is still a down trending resistance level. If the markets come back up and close near the top end of their trading range, toward their open or higher, the MorningStar signal is probably in effect. At worst, unless the market has a huge down day, the bottoming action is making bullish charts as well as bearish charts work effectively.
03/10 - Stock Market Comments
Monday's positive trading created some suspicion that the Bulls had taken control due to the fact stochastics were still heading in a downward direction and the Dow, although getting close to the 50 day moving average, had not yet tested the 50 day moving average. Obviously, today's hard selling is continuing the down trend. The market indexes closing below the 50 day moving average today would make a pullback to the 200 day moving average a likely target, back to the bottom of the trend channel. Continue to stay short. Any long positions that have shown sell signals and weakness should have been closed out by this time.
03/06 - Stock Market CommentsFriday's early trading appear like profit-taking continuing when the Dow and the S&P were trading lower but the NASDAQ was trading above where it opened, staying above the T-line. Now, with the NASDAQ joining the other indexes in the selloff, the potential of coming back to test the 50 day moving average on the Dow and the S&P 500 is very likely. Close out long positions that appear to have run out of steam/showing candlestick sell signals.
03/04 - Stock Market Comments
Although the markets came up from their lows yesterday, they formed bearish Harami's, which required positive opens today in the markets to indicate the uptrend was in progress. The Dow and the S&P 500 are selling lower which are confirming the Harami's and the NASDAQ is showing the most force to the downside, gapping down below the T-line Wednesday.
03/03 - Stock Market Comments
After all the hoopla of the NASDAQ closing above 5000 yesterday, the normal characteristics of this uptrend remains in progress. The slow nature of this uptrend continues as seen in today's selloff early in the day. Although the uptrend remains in progress, evidence of selling pressure can be seen based on the indecisive candlestick signals that have formed over the past few days. Be prepared to take profits on any continued signs of weakness in the indexes and/or individual stock positions.
03/02 - Stock Market Comments
The T-line continues to act as support for the major indexes. Friday's selling has been completely offset by today's buying. Nothing has changed as far as trend analysis, as long as the indexes trade above the T-line, the uptrend remains in progress.