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Daily Market Comments - October 2014


10/31 - Stock Market Comments

The NASDAQ has gapped up through the recent highs but is selling off a little bit after the open. It needs to stay above the recent highs, not forming a bearish belt hold signal. A strong up day in the overbought condition puts out the alert to start watching for profit-taking. Stay predominantly long but remain nimble. Crude oil stocks are still weak due to crude oil prices still selling off hard.

10/30 - Stock Market Comments

Expect some consolidation Thursday. Although the Dow is up strong, it is because VISA is having a strong day. The other indexes are showing consolidation. However, note that currently there is not any aggressive selling across-the-board. There are still numerous positions trading positive today.

10/29 - Stock Market Comments

The Dow came up through the 50 day moving average yesterday after an extensive uptrend for the past two weeks. It would not be unexpected to see some consolidation, bringing the Dow back down to test the 50 day moving average to see if it is now going to act as support. Stay predominantly long with a few short positions in the portfolio. DDD is a good example of why you stay short unless you see a close above the T-line.

10/28 - Stock Market Comments

Although the Dow has finally reached the 50 day moving average and backed off a little bit, the other indexes are showing much more strength. The NASDAQ gapped up above the 50 day moving average. The S&P 500 is forming a Doji sandwich through the 50 day moving average and the transportation index continues its steady climb.

10/27 - Stock Market Comments

Unless there is a dramatic sell signal Monday, expect selling early in the day and buying later in the day, the normal characteristic of an uptrending market. Currently, the NASDAQ appears to be doing a bobble at the 50 day moving average. This should imply there may be a few days of consolidation. Continue to stay predominantly long but having a few short positions in the portfolio remains prudent.

10/24 - Stock Market Comments

The markets are not showing any change of investor sentiment. The uptrend remains in progress with the 50 day moving average being the likely target. Continue to stay long in charts that are showing trading above the T-line. Bullish sentiment can be measured by the number of stocks that are gapping up on any given day. Currently, there are numerous gap up breakouts from frypan bottom and J-hook patterns.

10/23 - Stock Market Comments

Wednesday's profit-taking apparently is over. Thursday's strength clearly reveals the uptrend remains in progress especially with most of the indexes currently trading above Wednesday's open. The most compelling strength is seen in the NASDAQ, forming a trend kicker signal, making the 50 day moving average still the likely target. Stay long, stay nimble.

10/22 - Stock Market Comments

Although the markets are trading relatively in decisively today, after the strong move seen in the markets over the past four trading days, Wednesday's flat trading continues to demonstrate the strength of the bullish move. A profit-taking day of 60 or 80 points in the Dow would not have been unexpected. Currently there is no candlestick sell signals and the stochastics are still heading up, implying the Dow should get to the 50 day moving average before seeing some consolidation.

10/21 - Stock Market Comments

The transportation index is providing a valuable lesson, its strength is revealing that bullish sentiment has come back into the market with great enthusiasm. The Dow is currently trading positive after in indecisive day Monday closed right at the T-line, making Tuesday's activity a bullish Doji sandwich.

10/20 - Stock Market Comments

Although the Dow is showing some weakness here at the 50 day moving average, the other indexes are holding up fairly well, still nudging their resistance levels, the T line. Currently the NASDAQ is trading positive but still just under the T-line. Monday's trading requires bullish strength enough to breach the T-line. Otherwise, a reversal to the upside still has some tentativeness. If buying long, remain nimble.

10/17 - Stock Market Comments

Today's positive trading is forming a Morning Star signal in the Dow and the S&P 500. The NASDAQ has gapped up after a bullish engulfing signal. This should be a reversal but there is still one more criteria that needs to be confirmed. The indexes need to close above the T-line. Until that time, today's positive trading still needs to be addressed with the expectation to close out any new long positions if there is a failure to go up through the T-line early next week.

10/16 - Stock Market Comments

Although the market indexes are trading lower today, the Dow and the S&P 500 are currently attempting hammer signals. The NASDAQ opened at its low and is now trading higher. This is much more clearly seen when using candlestick formations. This basically indicates the lack of aggressive selling after the open. Expect some basing action over the next few days.

10/15 - Stock Market Comments

The gap down in the NASDAQ today was a good indication of exuberance selling at the bottom. Note that once the NASDAQ opened lower, the buyers started stepping in. The Dow is in the process of doing a big hammer signal at the bottom. However, the day is not over. If this market start selling off hard before the end of the day, anticipate this being a blowoff day.

10/14 - Stock Market Comments

Has investor sentiment changed? The end of the day closes in the indexes will be an indication of whether bullish Harami's are being informed today. With the stochastics in the oversold condition, and witnessing bullish strength, this is a good area to start covering at least part of the short positions. A strong close today would indicate the Bulls are staying in the market, making the covering of the rest of the short positions prudent.

10/13 - Stock Market Comments

The early morning positive trading showed the Dow resisting at the 200 day moving average. The NASDAQ has shown obvious weakness Monday. This indicates there has not yet been a change of investor sentiment although the markets are trading in the 200 day moving average area. But until there is a reversal signal, as well as a bullish confirmation, investor sentiment still indicates the market in a downward trend. That is as of now.

10/10 - Stock Market Comments

The target for the Dow still remains the 200 day moving average. Even at that level, there needs to be a very strong reversal signal to demonstrate there has been a change of investor sentiment. Continue to hold short positions and more than likely most of the long positions have probably been stopped out at this point, trading below the T-line.

10/08 - Stock Market Comments

If a market/price is moving in a specific direction, be careful when the early trading moves the trend in the opposite direction. In a down trend you will see buying in the morning and selling in the afternoon. An uptrend, you will see selling in the morning and buying in the afternoon. The current down trend still makes the 200 day moving average the viable target.

10/07 - Stock Market Comments

The down trend remains in progress as long as there is not a close above the T-line. That was evident in yesterdays trading after the big MorningStar signals that formed at the end of last week in the indexes. The warning signs Monday were in the indexes, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the transportation index that after trading higher in the day, finished lower, below the T-line. The down trend remains in progress with fewer long positions holding up.

10/06 - Stock Market Comments

The down trend remains in progress as long as there is not a close above the T-line. That was evident in yesterdays trading after the big MorningStar signals that formed at the end of last week in the indexes. The warning signs Monday were in the indexes, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the transportation index that after trading higher in the day, finished lower, below the T-line. The down trend remains in progress with fewer long positions holding up.

10/02 - Stock Market Comments

The analysis remains the same, the down trend remains in progress until there is a strong candlestick reversal signal. The 200 day moving average still remains a very viable target for the Dow. This implies there will be a few more days to the downside. Obviously the short positions are working well, as seen in the bearish slow curve in CREE this morning.

10/01 - Stock Market Comments

Remember the basics! When does a trend reverse? When you see a candlestick buy signal and a close above the T-line. As noted, although there was support in the indexes at the 50 day moving average, one thing did not occur. A candlestick buy signal and a close above the T-line. Until that occurs, a down trend is still considered to be in a down trend.


 

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