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Daily Market Comments - June 2013


06/28 - Stock Market Comments

The 50 day moving average has now become an obvious factor. Two scenarios remain, a T-line crunch if the indexes continue to close above the T-line or a blue ice failure if the T-line is breached to the downside on the close. It will be important to see whether there is any buying in the indexes in the latter part of the day.

06/26 - Stock Market Comments

The bullish bounce looks nice but there is one caveat yet to indicate the Bulls are back in control. Currently both the Dow and the NASDAQ have just touched the T-line but have not gone through it yet. Be careful, long positions put on today need to see the markets close near the high end of Wednesday's trading range, better yet above the T-line. Be nimble, we are currently in a downtrend attempting to do a bullish reversal, but the reversal still requires confirmation with a close above the T-line.

06/25 - Stock Market Comments


Be careful, investor sentiment has not changed from the current negative prognosis. On days like today, a very strong immediate open, be apprehensive about a reversal. With stochastics still in a downward direction, any positive trading requires strength going into the close. Stay nimble, if any short positions have gotten stopped out, be prepared to re-short if the markets demonstrate weakness, such as coming back down below today's open. Do not put your trust in a bullish move just yet, especially with the stochastics still heading negative.
 

06/24 - Stock Market Comments


Obviously having the portfolio oriented toward the short side has been the right prognosis. There has been numerous days when the uptrend would have selling days but it would experience bullish charts still acting bullish, while the remaining market was selling off for the day. That provided some indication the markets were having a profit-taking day during an uptrend.

06/21 - Stock Market Comments

Although the Dow is trading positive Firday, the NASDAQ is not showing any bullish sentiment. Stochastics are in a hard downward trajectory. Obviously investor sentiment has been altered from the previous steady uptrend of the market. Until there is evidence of candlestick reversal signals, the downside trajectory is still going to be the main prognosis.

06/20 - Stock Market Comments

Wednesday when the selling started, numerous positions were closing right back on the T-line. This makes an investors strategy well-defined. Positions needed to open positive to stay in the positions. What would a lower open indicate? Obviously the T-line was not going to act as support. This morning, the premarket futures show the Dow opening down 140 points. Prices were going to open lower.

06/19 - Stock Market Comments

Tuesday's positive trading produce the message, the current profit-taking downtrend channel had been breached to the upside. Obviously, there is profit-taking occurring in early trading Wednesday, the Dow trading lower. However, when it can be seen that the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are not selling off, it can be assumed the early morning selling is merely profit-taking.

06/18 - Stock Market Comments

A new uptrend has compelling evidence in that the Dow, after forming a bullish engulfing signal at the 50 day moving average, has now broken out of the descending resistance level. The NASDAQ is providing a more compelling bullish signal, a bullish flutter kicker breaking out of the descending resistance line. The up trending market has experienced pullbacks followed by bullish candlestick signals reestablishing the uptrend over the past six months.

06/17 - Stock Market Comments

Obviously the choppy mode of the market is still in a choppy mode. The bullish engulfing signal of the Dow off the 50 day moving average will be much better confirmed if Monday's trading remains positive going into the close, closing above the T-line. Once again, the T-line becomes a very important factor for illustrating whether the Bulls or the bears are in control. Any buying Monday still requires bullish confirmation by the end of the day.
 

06/13 - Stock Market Comments

As might be anticipated, Thursday's trading in the Dow and the S&P 500 is showing indecisive signals right on the support level, the 50 day moving average. This indecisive trading appears to be allowing the NASDAQ to trade flat or lower until the T-line becomes a factor. Unless there is a huge reversal in the market direction, anticipate a day or two of waffling at the 50 day moving average until a support level can be established for the NASDAQ.

06/12 - Stock Market Comments

Tuesday's selling created an evening star signal in the Dow. This sell signal occurred below the peak of three weeks ago. This essentially indicates the bullish uptrend at best will be very slow and calculating as the market has indicated over the past four months. A lower close Wednesday would indicate the current downtrending channel is still in effect, making the 50 day moving average still a likely target.

06/11 - Stock Market Comments

What is the definition of "buy on a positive open"? What we do not want to see is that the premarket futures are going to show that the Dow is going to open down 120 points. Obviously that would indicate there is some great selling pressure. So what do you do if the market immediately opens down 150 points? If the previous trend was indicating investor sentiment was relatively bullish, a deep bearish open needs to be watched with some suspect.

06/10 - Stock Market Comments

The Dow is down 30 points but the NASDAQ is trading positive. Simple analysis, consolidation after two strong days last week. Which way will the market be moving? Using the very simple analysis from candlestick analysis, a candlestick buy signal and a close above the T-line provide strong probabilities the uptrend is in progress until there is a candlestick sell signal and a close back below the T-line.

06/07 - Stock Market Comments

Any buying Friday has to be done with the caveat that the market indexes need to close near the high end of their trading ranges. Be careful, a close back below the T-line in the Dow and the S&P 500 would indicate a bounce versus a full-scale reversal. This does not preclude individual stocks maintaining strength from their individual chart patterns. However, with the market moving as fast as it has this morning, expect some profit-taking but then the profit-taking needs to be reconfirmed with bullish sentiment keeping Friday's trading above the T-line.

06/06 - Stock Market Comments

Be careful, a downtrending market usually sees buying in the morning, followed by selling in the afternoon. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have hit the support level of the 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ has a good distance to go before it moves down to the 50 day moving average. Although the stochastics are in the oversold area, they are still on a downward trajectory. This would imply that the Dow and the S&P 500 might do some waffling here at the 50 day moving average, giving time for the NASDAQ to come down and tests that level. Any buying at these levels should be done so with a very short leash.

06/05 - Stock Market Comments

Wednesday's trading provided an opportunity for the indexes to come back up through the T-line. As seen, the selling put all the indexes well below the T-line. Wednesday's weakness in the markets is in line with the simple analysis that the downtrend will remain in progress until the indexes can provide bullish candlestick signals and a close above the T-line. Short positions should be outweighing long positions in the portfolio.

06/04 - Stock Market Comments

Although the Dow is trading positive Monday, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are not following suit. The market is looking for the direction this morning. After the big down move on Friday, it would not be unusual to see a Doji type day in the indexes. Be prepared for some more profit-taking in the markets. Having a few additional short positions would be prudent until it can be discerned as to whether this is a profit-taking pullback

06/03 - Stock Market Comments

Although the Dow is trading positive Monday, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are not following suit. The market is looking for the direction this morning. After the big down move on Friday, it would not be unusual to see a Doji type day in the indexes. Be prepared for some more profit-taking in the markets. Having a few additional short positions would be prudent until it can be discerned as to whether this is a profit-taking pullback or a full-scale reversal. Be nimble.

 

 


 

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