Daily Market Comments - November 2012
11/29 - Stock Market Comments
Wednesday's big reversal day was a good indication the Bulls were still in control. Thursday required a positive open to demonstrate the uptrend has remained in progress. This morning's positive trading was expected but now the markets need to have a strong close today to indicate the 50 day moving average to be the next target. This would produce a few more bullish days.
11/28 - Stock Market Comments
The T-line has not had any influence on supporting this pullback. Adding some short positions to the portfolio at this level is prudent. Unless the markets close up above the T-line Wednesday, the failure of the 200 day moving average becomes more pronounced. This makes a test of the recent lows a more viable target.
11/27 - Stock Market Comments
The markets are demonstrating another day of indecisive consolidation. Nothing has changed as far as the uptrend. Be patient with the expectation of seeing some more buying over the next few days. Use a simple rule, as long as the indexes are above the T-line, we are in an uptrend.
11/26 - Stock Market Comments
Profit-taking is expected during the early part of Monday's trading. The final run-up from Friday's afternoon trading has been given back. However, profit-taking is the likely suspect due to the fact that many charts are not selling off. Continue to stay long on the bullish charts.
11/21 - Stock Market Comments
Although the markets are not moving with any great conviction, the flat and positive trading day of the indexes reveals there is not any evidence of the sellers trying to take back control. As long as the indexes remain above the T-line, we have to consider the markets in an uptrend.
11/20 - Stock Market Comments
Expect some profit-taking early Tuesday. So far the profit-taking has been very minor. At worst, the bottoming action of the past few trading days and the strong buying of Monday have at least indicated the Bulls are stepping back in in this area. The MorningStar signal formed in both the Dow and the S&P 500 reveal that the downtrend has stopped, at least for the short term.
11/19 - Stock Market Comments
The magnitude of Monday's buying puts all the indexes back up above the T-line. The Dow and the S&P 500 are forming Morning Star signals. This is a bullish reversal, provided the markets close above the T-line Monday.
11/16 - Stock Market Comments
Although the markets are trading relatively flat and slightly positive today, it is not showing indications there is any major change of investor sentiment. Stay short until it becomes very clear, a strong bullish signal, that the Bulls are taking control.
11/15 - Stock Market Comments
Positive trading Thursday is more of an indication of a bounce after Tuesday's selloff versus a bullish reversal. The reversal will require substantial information the Bulls are starting to take control. Keep in mind, a downtrend will usually experience buying in the morning and selling later in the day.
11/14 - Stock Market Comments
Nothing new! The downtrend will remain in progress until the appearance of a strong candlestick reversal signal. Any buying has to be done with the anticipation of a very quick close if it doesn't move immediately in the right direction. Continue to hold short positions.
11/13 - Stock Market Comments
The Bulls may be finding a level of support. Tuesday's positive trading does not necessarily mean a reversal is about to occur, it merely indicates that there is less selling pressure in this area. Keep an eye on the Dow and the S&P 500 for the prospect of a cradle pattern be an established.
11/12 - Stock Market Comments
The indexes continue to demonstrate bearish signals. This continues to make the short positions improving profitability. Without having to do any extensive analysis, the market downtrend is considered in progress as long as there is not a candlestick buy signal and a close above the T-line.
11/9 - Stock Market Comments
Be careful of any bullish bounces. The magnitude of the to pass selling days will require significant change of investor sentiment. This change will have to be indicated by a very strong reversal signal. Continue to stay short, and any long positions still remaining in the portfolio should be there only due to the fact that it has not breached the T line.
11/7 - Stock Market Comments
The market is obviously reflecting its thoughts about the election. Does this mean there will be four years of a down trending market? Obviously not, but any upside movement will be done in the atmosphere of the markets not considering the continued administration being conducive for a strong market rally.
11/6 - Stock Market Comments
Be careful, Tuesday's buying needs to be held going into the close. Otherwise, there will probably be a lot of position liquidation going into today's close trying to minimize risk of election results. Continue to hold long or short positions that are demonstrating strong candlestick buy or sell signals but to add new positions Tuesday is not worth the risk reward.
11/5 - Stock Market Comments
A nice breakout on Thursday, taking back on Friday to the exact same level where the markets have been trading flat for the past week. Monday the Dow, as well as any of the other indicators, appeared to be ready to put in another indecisive day. Logically, there will not be any major portfolio changes until Wednesday morning.
11/2 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow had formed a series of flat trading Doji's this past week. This provided the potential set up for a cradle pattern. The cradle pattern was formed with yesterday's strong bullish move in the Dow. That provides an expected result! A strong bullish uptrend.