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Daily Market Comments - April 2006



4/28 -- Stock Market Comments

The markets are holding relatively steady. The 50 day moving average appears to be the support level for the NASDAQ. The Dow can possibly move up slowly to the top of the trend channel, which would indicate another week or so of positive trading. Continue to hold the long positions.

4/27 -- Stock Market Comments

Wednesday’s Bullish Engulfing signal in the Dow and the Doji in the NASDAQ showed that the sellers were not coming into the market with any great strength. This still provides the indication that we are in a very slow uptrend. The bounce back up this morning in the Dow from the early selloff still indicates that the Bulls and Bears are keeping this a slow trending market.

4/26 -- Stock Market Comments

The Dow formed an Evening Star signal with the stochastics starting to roll over. The NASDAQ pulled back slightly also. Although we may not see a severe pullback, expect two or three days of slight consolidation to the downside. Crude oil prices and natural gas prices have been showing candlestick sell signals. Some severe pullbacks in those areas might be the catalyst for supporting the market to the downside. Take profits at the stop loss points and continue to hold the strong chart positions.

4/24 -- Stock Market Comments

The NASDAQ is selling off slightly but is still in upward trading range and not showing any severe selling pressure. The DOW is showing a bit of toppiness but not anything severe – anticipate a Hammer-type formation. But if it should close at the lower end of its trading range today, we will look for a few more days of consolidation.

4/21 -- Stock Market Comments

The Bulls apparently are still controlling the markets. However, the NASDAQ formed a bearish Harami which might imply that there may be a day or two of consolidation in that market. The Dow moved up with more strength. This market environment still implies a steady uptrend with no severe selling pressure in the very near future. Continue to hold the long positions. The oil stocks and steel stocks may be taking a pullback breather. They can be shorted for the short term. Internet stocks and medical appliance stocks are still in uptrends.

4/20 -- Stock Market Comments

Both the Dow and the NASDAQ had the opportunity to consolidate on Wednesday after the big bullish day on Tuesday. Any consolidation/profit-taking was very mild at best. The Bulls made it evident that they were still in this market. This latest move, coming up off the 50 day moving average, reveals that the slow uptrend is still in progress. With crude oil hitting new highs, oil stocks have been extremely strong. With gold hitting new highs, gold stocks have been extremely strong. Medical appliance stocks are very strong. The sectors that  have been showing strength are continuing to show strength. For now, there is nothing showing any signs of selling pressure. Continue to hold the long positions.   

4/19 -- Stock Market Comments

What a day!!! The 50 day moving average appears to have acted as the support level. This may sound like an understatement but that is why it is important to watch the technical levels that everybody else is watching. The candlestick signals provide the advantage of seeing exactly what investors are doing at important levels. Crude oil prices hit record highs but the belief that the tightening level imposed by the Feds appeared to be reached provided the bullish factor for investors on Tuesday. Any fear of investor sentiment turning drastically negative in the recent downtrend of the Dow was negated on Tuesday.      

4/17 -- Stock Market Comments

The market was relatively indecisive on Thursday, which was to be expected before a long three day weekend. The mood of investors usually is reflected after returning from a holiday weekend. The sun was out. There was no bad news worldwide over the weekend. From the formations of both the NASDAQ and the Dow last Wednesday and Thursday, it should be anticipated that the uptrend is trying to get started once again. Continue to look at the longs. This morning's futures indicate a flat opening. The stochastics for the NASDAQ and the Dow are into, or very close to, the oversold conditions.   

4/13 -- Stock Market Comments

The Dow bounced up off the 50 day moving average on Wednesday as expected. The stochastics in the Dow have reached the oversold area. A bullish Harami signal formed, indicating that the selling had stopped. Although the NASDAQ was slightly positive, the stochastics still indicate a few more days to the downside. This would coincide with the NASDAQ reaching the 50 day moving average. This scenario  would suggest a sluggish day or two in the Dow while the NASDAQ reaches down for the 50 day moving average. However, the markets appeared to be demonstrating profit-taking pullbacks in an uptrend versus a full-scale reversal. This is evident in the number of stocks that are still moving positive during these market conditions.  

4/12 -- Stock Market Comments

On Tuesday, selling took the Dow down to the 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ sold off hard and got very close to the 50 day moving average. The selling was blamed on the Iranian situation. The stochastics of both indexes are now going toward the oversold area. Expect a few days of slightly weaker markets while the stochastics start getting well into the oversold area and the 50 day moving averages act as support. A number of positions were stopped out with profits. A few short positions have been recommended.

4/11 -- Stock Market Comments

The Dow formed another Inverted Hammer signal on Monday. A positive trading day today in the Dow would confirm the Inverted Hammer signal and would indicate a Double Bottom, showing another bottoming signal like the Inverted Hammer signal did last week. If the Dow shows a bullish day today, long positions can be added aggressively. Although the NASDAQ traded lower on Monday, it did not come out of the perceived trend channel that has developed since early March. Currently the markets indicate a slow uptrend. It should maintain that upward  trend until a severe sell signal is witnessed.    

4/10 -- Stock Market Comments

The selloff in the Dow on Friday after the Hanging Man/Harami signal on Thursday has produced further evidence that if this market is in an uptrend, it's going to be a very slow one. The NASDAQ formed a Bearish Engulfing signal on Friday. Unless the markets trade positive today, anticipate at least a few days of pullback action. Currently that pullback would be  targeting the 50 day moving average. However, the pullbacks appear to be profit-taking in a slow uptrend. The more consistent the backing and filling, the longer this uptrend may continue. In this market, it is important to watch which sectors are acting strong.

4/7 - Stock Market Comments

On Thursday the Dow consolidated while the NASDAQ traded slightly higher. This once again indicated more of a healthy rotation in the market versus any selling pressure. The longer the slow uptrend stays in existence, the more powerful a reversal signal will be needed to indicate a change of investor sentiment. Continue to hold the long positions. There still are a number of sectors that are showing  good strength.    

4/6 -- Stock Market Comments

The buying is still continuing after the Inverted Hammer signal was confirmed in the Dow. The potential sell signals in the NASDAQ are now somewhat negated. The price is moving well above the top of those signals. The market continues to move in a healthy uptrend with the backing and filling keeping the exuberance out of the markets. There are strong sectors in this market such as the medical appliance sector. Continue to hold the long positions with most of the portfolio oriented toward the strong sectors.

4/5 -- Stock Market Comments

The Inverted Hammer in the Dow was confirmed with a strong day on Tuesday. The trading channel has become obvious. Expect the Dow to be in an uptrend for the next couple of weeks. The NASDAQ showed strength also, negating the potential toppy signals it has revealed over the past few days. Although the uptrend appears to be intact, it becomes important to find the sectors that are moving with this new uptrend. Continue to stay predominantly long.

4/4 -- Stock Market Comments

The Inverted Hammer that formed in the Dow on Monday was a signal that the downtrend in the Dow may be over. A trend channel can easily be seen forming in the Dow. A positive day would confirm that the Dow is starting back up in its uptrend. The NASDAQ showed  the possibility of some profit-taking in the near term. If the Dow moved higher from here while the NASDAQ takes profits, the opposite that has been happening in these indexes over the past two weeks, it would be a good indication that we are in a slow steady uptrend in these markets...prices moving up, followed by some profit-taking, and then moving back up again.

4/3 -- Stock Market Comments

The Dow closed weaker on Friday, the NASDAQ traded flat. Once again the indication is that the markets are going through a change of sectors versus a massive selloff. The Dow is currently trading back down to the level where it peaked out in late February. The stochastics are getting close to the oversold conditions. The Dow should either support in this level or test the 50 day moving average which is not too far below where we are right now. The stochastics for the NASDAQ, although just getting into the overbought area, are still moving in an upward direction. This combination makes the evaluation lean toward the markets being in a slow uptrend. The pullbacks in the markets are healthy for continued growth to the upside. Continue to hold the long positions.  

 

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