Daily Market Comments - September 2011
9/30 - Stock Market Comments
Yesterday the Dow showed gains but the NASDAQ was down. Short term trend analysis has become worthless in this choppy market. The longer term analysis reveals the formation of a dumpling top. The weakness in today's premarket futures provide more evidence the dumpling top formation is in progress. Unless there is a huge upside move, expect this market to be ready to break down in the same magnitude of the market decline two months ago. Be oriented to the short side.
9/28- Stock Market Comments
The talking heads are already commiserating about the magnitude of yesterday's selloff from the highs. Fortunately, the signal formation created yesterday did not reveal any negative sentiment. The premarket futures show a positive open, moving back up into the profit-taking area of yesterday. There will need to be severe selling to change the upward bias.
9/27 - Stock market Comments
Yesterday's strength, after the Doji of Friday, moved the Dow back up into the trading channel. With the stochastics curling up, the next target should be testing the top end of the trend channel again. The premarket futures are showing more strength. Long positions can be added, just be nimble once the top of the channel is retested.
9/26 - Stock Market Comments
Friday's indecisive trading day occurred right on the support level of about a month ago in the Dow. If that support area is going to hold, it requires positive trading today. The premarket futures indicate a positive open. However, the early buying needs to stay with this market going into the close. If the markets come back down through the close of Friday, look for a strong wave three to the downside.
9/23 - Stock Market Comments
After the hard selling of the past few days, it would not be surprising to see today's trading form a Doji. This may not mean the downtrend is over, just squaring up of books before the weekend. Stay short and do not be fooled by positive trading in charts where the stochastics are still showing a strong downward trajectory.
9/22 - Stock Market Comments
The rapid selling during the final hour yesterday brought the Dow and the NASDAQ back down toward the lower end of the trend channel. The Dow has sold off 300 points on the open today bringing it down below the lower trend channel, the gap down from the NASDAQ has done the same thing. Without a good rebound today, going into the close, wave three to the downside would appear to be in progress. Close long positions.
9/21 - Stock Market Comments
After the Dow traded pretty steady to the upside yesterday, it gave everything back during the final hour .it formed a Doji. Today's premarket futures indicate a slightly positive open again. Currently there is no indications/signals that the slow uptrend has changed its course. The trend channel provides an opportunity for some pullbacks, but the overall trend is slightly positive until the indexes make a firm test of the 50 day moving average. Stay long but have some shorts in the portfolio.
9/20 - Stock Market Comments
The positive premarket futures give further illustration that yesterday was merely a selling day in an uptrend. The predominant analytical factors remain the close proximity of the 50 day moving average at the same level as the top of the current trend channel. Continue to hold the strong charts as well as being short a few positions in the portfolio. Yesterday's presidential jobs proposal did not seem to create any major affect on the markets. Anticipate a slow movement to the upside for the next few days.
9/19 - Stock market Comments
The news about Greece is not being taken very well this morning. It is providing a good reason to take some profits in this market, which had five strong days last week. It appears that gold stocks are still maintaining their strength. No aggressive buying is required if this market shows more than just a mild selloff this morning. But then watch for renewed strength.
9/16 - Stock market Comments
After three good strong days in the market, expect some profit-taking. Today's premarket futures are still showing a positive open but more in the considered flat open area. From the conditions of the stochastics, any selling today should be considered profit-taking. The 50 day moving average area and still be considered the potential target. Remain oriented toward the long side but be nimble when the markets do approach the 50 day moving average.
9/15 - Stock market Comments
The 50 day moving average still remains a very viable target for both the Dow and the NASDAQ. If so, expect more upside Run for the next few days. At this point, any remaining short positions are in a downtrend based upon something very specific with each individual company. Use the T-line as your stop.
9/14 - Stock market Comments
The top of the trend channel becomes the viable target if the Dow can get through the T line today. The piercing signal in the NASDAQ is still creating the upside direction. The 50 day moving average is a likely target. Stochastics have curled up for all the indices. Anticipate a couple more days to the long side.
9/13 - Stock market Comments
Yesterday's trading brought the Dow back up into the trend channel. Today's premarket futures showed relatively flat trading on the open. The Dow is trading slightly negative while the NASDAQ is trading positive. This indicates the potential of the Dow wallowing on the lower end of the trend channel for a few days until the stochastics get into the oversold condition while at the same time the NASDAQ has gapped up slightly today from yesterday's piercing signal. The trend channel remains the predominant indicator. If it is to remain in tact, watch for the Dow to find a bottom early today and start back up.
9/12 - Stock market Comments
The Dow pulled back to a very important technical level on Friday, the lower trend channel. To show that the uptrend was still in progress, Monday's premarket futures required a bullish open. However, as we can see, the premarket futures are going to take the indexes down, probably starting legs three to the downside. Longs should be covered if they are showing weakness and more shorts should be added to the portfolio.
9/8 - Stock market Comments
Yesterday's bullish trading confirms the hammer signal that formed the previous day in the Dow. It also brought the trading back up into the middle of the trend channel. Expect some pullback after the magnitude of yesterday's price move. Expect some early-morning profit-taking but an upward move toward the top of the trend channel is still the high probability scenario. Remain nimble.
9/7 - Stock Market Comments
After a significant bearish day yesterday, the Dow bounced up off the lower end of the trend channel. Today's premarket futures reveal the Bulls are back in control short-term. Short-term should mean until there is an opportunity to retest the top end of the trend channel. Obviously, this makes for awhipsaw environment. These conditions make for very short term trading, any long positions added today should be done with a potential time horizon of a day or two.
9/6 - Stock Market Comments
The selling on Friday confirmed the week bearish engulfing signal of Thursday and it brought the trading back into the middle of a slowly ascending trend channel in the Dow. Today's premarket futures have the opportunity to allow the indexes to test the lower support level of the trend channel. Adding short positions but watch to see what the reaction of the markets will be if they do hit the lower trend channel.
9/1 - Stock Market Comments
Today's premarket futures were relatively flat, exactly how the market opened today. Although there has been indecisive trading yesterday, nothing yet has shown any means of the current uptrend. But the stochastics are now in the over bought condition. Hold long positions but be very defensive.