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Daily Market Comments - April 2009

4/30 - Stock Market Comments

Wednesday's strength in the markets breached the trajectory of the Dumpling Top. Why is this important? Candlestick signals and patterns reveal what is going on in investor sentiment. That is why the signal/pattern is formed. When the pattern, such as a Dumpling top, has trading action that isn't consistent with the formation of the pattern, it can be assumed immediately that there is a change of investor sentiment. The possibility is now that wave three might be in progress. Today's positive premarket futures indicate a further disruption of the Dumpling Top. Continue to hold long positions until a dramatic sell signal appears.

4/28 - Stock Market Comments

Monday's directionless trading is indicative of the Dumpling Top components. Further weakness appears to be demonstrated in the premarket futures. Use these market conditions to close out positions that are not demonstrating strong bullish charts. As the  Rounding Top trajectory continues,  the placement of short positions in the portfolio will grow stronger.

4/27 - Stock Market Comments

The markets looked relatively strong going into Friday afternoon. However, the close in the Dow did not breach the Dumpling Top formation. The NASDAQ showed more of a positive trend than the Dow. It should still be watched with some diligence over the next few days. This morning, the premarket futures are showing extensive weakness. This would continue to show evidence of a Dumpling Top still being the predominant technical factor. With the Dumpling Top as your backdrop, each individual chart needs to be analyzed as to whether their trends are fizzling out.

4/24 - Stock Market Comments

After soggy trading on Thursday, buying came into the markets in the final 30 minutes. It can be pretty well observed that there is no decisive trend with the up conditions one day, down the next, characteristics of these markets. This adds more credibility to the visual Dumpling Top that is forming in the Dow. There will be stocks moving positive and stocks moving negative. Just be cognizant of the fact that the moves may not have great length and be prepared to trade on a short-term basis.

4/21 - Stock Market Comments

Just like the market indexes, there were many stock positions on Monday that were gapping down after a Doji. This warranted closing out most of the portfolio and moving back to cash. This pullback potential in the markets now provides an opportunity to buy the short funds again. The magnitude of the pullback will let us know whether this is a pullback in an uptrend or we just finished a bounce during a downtrend. Be prepared to make money on the short side.

4/20 - Stock Market Comments

Although the Dow and the NASDAQ held up very well on Friday, they both formed a Doji. Today's gap down open definitely needs to show support at the T-line. Take some long positions off the table on the open this morning. If the uptrend is still in progress, the T-line will show evidence of that. 

4/17 - Stock Market Comments

The strength in Thursday's trading clearly revealed the T-line was going to continue to act as support. Continue to hold long positions. Don't hesitate to take profits when the signals call for it, then repurchase as price patterns develop. Keep in mind, the longer a trend stays in existence, the higher the probabilities of seeing exuberant buying start coming into the markets.

4/16 - Stock Market Comments

The late strength on Wednesday kept both the Dow and the NASDAQ above the T-line, making the upward trend continuation highly probable. This is being confirmed with the positive futures and opening this morning. Although this may not sound prolific, continue to stay long as long as this market continues to close above the T-line.

4/15 - Stock Market Comments

The markets selling off on Tuesday brought the Dow back down to the T-line. Weakness in today's trading will bring it down below that level. Today's trading requires an indecisive trading day, keeping the Dow fairly close to the T-line. The NASDAQ will need to stay above that level also to indicate the uptrend is still in progress. Take some profits but be willing to buy back in immediately if bullish strength reveals the T-line is going to continue to act as support. You might use the leveraged short funds as short-term  hedges.

4/13 - Stock Market Comments

The this strength in the markets on Friday clearly revealed the T-line was continuing to act as support. Todays sell-off on the open is the expected profit-taking. Stochastics have turned back up. Unless today's trading can come back down through the open of Friday, consider the uptrend still in progress.

4/9 - Stock Market Comments

Wednesday's trading formed a Bullish Harami in the NASDAQ, with the trading closing above the T-line. The Dow formed a Doji just below the T-line. This indicated there wasn't any aggressive selling in the markets. The T-line may act as continued support. This morning's positive futures clearly indicate the uptrend is still in progress. Wells Fargo appears to be the stimulus this morning. Continue to favor the financial stocks.

4/7 - Stock Market Comments

Monday's trading formed a Hanging Man signal in both the Dow and the NASDAQ. Today's lower premarket futures clearly reveal the sellers are starting to take control. Take profits immediately where it is appropriate, where you see sell signals in the chart patterns. Anticipate a test of the T-line in the Dow and the NASDAQ. However, there still will be sectors/stocks continuing positive.

4/6 - Stock Market Comments

Today's initial weakness was created by one bank analyst downgrading bank stocks. This might cause a setback but Friday's trading revealed the confirmation of J-Hook patterns in both the Dow and the NASDAQ. Until there appears to be a dramatic candlestick sell signal  forming in the indexes, continue to hold the long positions. Profit-taking has been occurring during this uptrend. That makes the uptrend much more healthy.

4/3 - Stock Market Comments

Expect profit-taking early this morning. The unemployment figures were bad but this number had to have been built into expectations. The J-Hook pattern should still be in progress provided the markets do not experience severe selling today. Continue to hold long positions. 

4/2 - Stock Market Comments

Wednesday's reversal day provided more evidence that a J-Hook pattern was forming in the Dow. The 50 day moving average appears to be acting as support. The NASDAQ also gave indications of a J-Hook pattern forming at the T-line. The financial stocks should get a boost today with the changes made in the market to market process. Continue to hold long positions.

4/1 - Stock Market Comments

The market indexes required a positive open today to confirm the J-Hook pattern. The lower open will close out the long positions added late Tuesday afternoon. A weak close today would indicate the moving averages are not acting as support levels. Now watch for Fibonnacci levels or the next moving averages to see if they will be the pullback target. Once again, being nimble is required. Longer term positioning should start establishing short fund positions if the markets close weak today.


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