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Steve's Trading Diary - January 2009


1/27 Bought CHK as it traded higher on Tuesday, but it finally traded lower. We would still not be afraid to buy this, especially if it opens on a positive note on Wednesday. Continue to hold as long as it doesn't close below the T-line. 1/28 It came up nicely on Wednesday, up through the 50 day moving average. Continue to hold. Use the T-line as your stop. 1/29 It held up reasonably well. It opened lower, right on the 50 day moving average, and closed almost back to the "even" point. This showed that the Bulls are still participating. Continue to hold. We don't want to see it close back below the 50 day moving average again, which would show weakness. 1/30 It came back down and closed right on the T-line. It needs to have a Doji type day or open higher and trade higher to continue to hold. If it starts trading down, close out the position and wait for the next buy signal. 2/2 It traded relatively flat on the day. It was down a little bit but closed close to being even on the day. Continue to hold. If you sold it, be ready to buy it back if it comes back up through the moving averages. 2/3 If it was closed out on Monday, it should have been bought back on Tuesday. Continue to hold. It's still in an upward trending channel. 2/4 It moved higher. It was up $.61 on the day. Continue to hold. It should break out toward the $20 range. 2/5 It continued up nicely and used the T-line as support. Continue to hold. 2/6 It continued to move higher. If it breaks out above the $20 range, it could run like a gangbuster. 2/9 It gapped up and formed a Spinning Top/Doji on Monday. The stochastics are in the overbought area. If it opens lower and starts trading down, take some profits. It would be topping out at about the same level where it topped out before and it has moved a good distance away from the T-line. It needs to open higher and trade higher to continue to hold this position. 2/10 It did what was expected after a gap up Doji and sold off. Half of the position should have been taken off on Tuesday. We would take the other half off if it closes below the T-line. This can always be bought back on a positive trading day. 2/11 It consolidated but opened higher and closed higher on Wednesday. We'd like to see it open positive on Thursday. We don't want to see it close below the T-line. 2/12 It closed positive on Thursday after bouncing off the T-line. It can be bought on a positive open on Friday. 2/13 It has a nice little J-Hook type pattern setting up. Continue to hold as long as it closes above the T-line. 2/17 It should have been closed out on Tuesday with the gap down and the close below the T-line.

1/30 Shorted BDK. It formed a Dumpling Top and gapped down. It should show some more downside movement. 2/2 It's still probably in a downtrend. We don't want to see it trade up above Monday's high of $31. Use that as your stop. 2/3 It traded up a little bit but didn't do anything aggressively. If it comes up through Monday's high, close out the position. 2/4 It closed lower on Wednesday and was down $.98. It can be re-shorted on weakness on Thursday. Continue to stay short. 2/5 It formed a Doji. If it trades above Thursday's high of $29.37, close out the position. It needs to open lower and trade lower to stay in this short position. 2/6 It needed to open lower and trade lower, which it didn't. It should have been closed out immediately on the positive open on Friday.

1/23 Bought HMY. Continue to hold. 1/26 It continued up and broke out above the recent highs. It pulled back a little bit but continue to hold this. Use the T-line as your stop. 1/27 It's getting a little bit toppy. It definitely needs to have a pop to the upside to continue to hold. If it starts trading lower on Wednesday, you will probably want to start taking some profits with the likelihood that it will come back down and test the T-line. 1/28 It pulled back but opened lower and came right back up. That's simply profit-taking action. This can be bought aggressively on a positive open on Thursday. 1/29 It's still performing very well. Gold stocks are up. Notice that it didn't really pull back at all. It opened right on the T-line and headed back up. Continue to hold. 1/30 It traded positive most of the day but came back and had a Doji type day. It might be getting toppy but we will continue to hold it as long as it doesn't close below the T-line. The gold stocks are still fairly strong. 2/2 Even though it backed off, it stayed above the T-line. Continue to hold. 2/3 It continues to trade up above the T-line. Continue to hold. We don't want to see it close below the T-line. 2/4 It's still holding up above the T-line. Continue to hold. Use the T-line as your stop. We don't want to see it close back below $11.40 on Thursday. 2/5 It got a little bit soggy but stayed above the T-line. Continue to hold as long as it closes above the T-line at around $11.40. 2/6 It continued to stay above the T-line. Be ready to buy this aggressively on a positive open. It consolidated and now a new run-up is starting. 2/9 It closed below the T-line on Monday. It should have been closed out. Gold stocks are getting a little bit toppy.

1/23 Bought SLW. Continue to hold. 1/26 It opened higher and closed lower but it's still in an uptrend. Continue to hold and use the T-line as your stop. 1/27 It backed off quite a bit on Tuesday but still closed up above the T-line. It's getting "iffy". If it opens lower on Wednesday, close out the position. It needs to open higher and maintain the uptrend. 1/28 After its drop on Tuesday, it's still trading above the T-line. Give it one more day. It needs to start trading back up to continue to hold. 1/29 We gave it one more day. It closed above the T-line. Continue to hold. 1/30 It stayed above the T-line. Continue to hold unless it closes below the T-line. 2/2 It bounced off the 200 day moving average and closed right near the T-line. If you closed it out, it can always be bought back on a positive open. 2/3 It's trading right at the T-line. This can be bought again if it opens positive on Wednesday. 2/4 It held up above the T-line. Continue to hold. This can be bought aggressively if it opens positive on Thursday. 2/5 It continued to stay above the T-line. Continue to hold. Use the T-line as your stop. 2/6 It definitely needs a positive open to get it moving. Notice that it's in a congestion area. It needs to break out of this congestion area pretty quickly. Continue to use a close below the T-line as your stop. 2/9 It should have been closed out on Monday as it closed below the T-line.

1/28 Bought CVH on the positive open on Wednesday. It closed above the recent high. This has a high probability of going up into the $19 to $20 area. 1/29 It formed a Bearish Harami. If it opens weaker on Friday, close it out and see if it will support on the T-line. It needs to open flat or higher and trade higher to stay in it. 1/30 It came back down, tested the T-line, and came back up to the top end of the trading range. If this opens lower on Monday, close it out immediately. It needs to open relatively flat and start moving up to continue to hold. 2/2 It opened right on the T-line and immediately moved up. Continue to hold. It should still be in a nice uptrend. 2/3 It consolidated but traded higher at the end of the day. Continue to hold. We don't want to see it close below the T-line. 2/4 It got a little bit toppy but give it another day to see if it stays above the T-line. It's still in a nice steady uptrend. It had a soft day on Wednesday. 2/5 It has continued to stay above the T-line. Continue to hold. 2/6 It continues to move higher. It's staying above the T-line. Continue to hold. 2/9 It's still in a nice uptrend. Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 2/10 It closed right on the T-line with a Bearish Engulfing signal. This is a very simple prognosis for Wednesday. If it opens lower, close it out immediately. It needs to open higher and trade higher. If it opens higher, use any trading below Tuesday's low of $16.61 as your stop. 2/11 It needed to open higher, which it did. It held at the T-line. It needs to open positive on Thursday and continue up. If it starts trading lower, close out the position immediately. 2/12 It closed up $.29 and formed a bullish Hammer. It should have been stopped out on the lower open. It can be bought back on Friday on a positive open. This should have washed out a lot of the sellers and could now potentially form a J-Hook pattern.

1/30 Bought SQNM on the positive open after Friday's Belt Hold signal. However, even though it didn't form a true sell signal, it should have been closed out later in the day based on the weakness in the markets in general. There will probably not be any strength in this stock until the markets turn around again.

1/28 Bought BBEP on the open. Even though it closed lower, it still has an upward trajectory. Continue to hold. Use the T-line as your stop. If this opens on Thursday above where it opened on Wednesday, buy it aggressively. That would form a Kicker type signal that would start the next uptrend. 1/29 It held up reasonably well. Continue to hold. If it opens higher on Friday, it can be bought aggressively. 1/30 It should have been closed out sometime during the day, especially as it moved back down through the T-line. Now wait for the next buy signal.

1/21 Bought SVU. It consolidated. If you bought it on the positive trading on Wednesday, continue to hold. It's still setting up as a nice J-Hook pattern. We don't want to see it trade at all below Wednesday's low of $18.05. 1/22 Continue to hold. We don't want to see it close below the T-line at around $17.85. 1/23 It hasn't backed off below the T-line. It's still in a nice uptrend. It can be bought more aggressively if it breaks through the current high levels. Continue to hold. 1/26 It continues to move steadily higher and is staying above the T-line. Continue to hold. Use the T-line as your stop at around the $18.35 level. 1/27 It's still maintaining a slow uptrend. Continue to hold. At this point use any trading below the T-line as your stop because of Tuesday's Hanging Man signal. It needs to open higher and trade higher to continue to hold. 1/28 It's still in a nice uptrend after the J-Hook pattern. We're still targeting the 200 day moving average. 1/29 It didn't quite form a Bearish Harami. It opened lower and closed lower but didn't form a definite sell signal. We don't want to see it trade below the T-line at all on Friday. It needs to open and start trading positive. 1/30 It should have been closed out as it closed below the T-line after the Bearish Harami.

1/26 Bought NGLS on the positive open. It's still coming back up to form a J-Hook type pattern. Continue to hold. We definitely want to see it break out through the highs at the $9.60 level. If it breaks through $9.60, it can be bought aggressively. 1/27 It continued to move higher. It's now trading at a new recent high. Continue to hold. It should move another two to three points from this level. At this point we wouldn't want to see it close back below Tuesday's open at the $9.48 level. 1/28 It continued higher. It may be getting a little bit toppy but should need some rest. Continue to hold as long as it closes above the T-line. 1/29 It continued higher. It's obviously stronger than the markets and is still working. We're in the right industry with this one. 1/30 It formed a Spinning Top with the stochastics in the overbought area. This is a situation where you would take half the position off based on the market showing weakness and the stock showing a little bit of weakness. Be ready to sell the other half of the position, especially if it comes back down through the lows of Thursday and Friday at around the $10.10 area. It can always be bought back if it shows more strength from here. 2/2 The other half of the position should have been closed out. Be ready to buy it back on positive trading on Tuesday.

1/30 Shorted FO as it came back down through our sell stop. The Dumpling Top and the gap down to get the trend started will probably result in some good downside movement in this one. Stay short. At this point we don't want to see any trading above Friday's open at around $34. 2/2 It continued to move down. It formed a Doji. Use the halfway point of Friday's candle at approximately $33 as your stop. We don't want to see it come back up through that level. 2/3 If it starts trading higher on Wednesday, especially if it trades at all above the halfway point of Friday's large bearish candle at approximately the $33 area, close out the position. 2/4 It closed near the low of the previous day. Stay short. It's still going lower. 2/5 It formed a Bullish Engulfing signal. Whenever you see this signal, especially in an oversold condition, it should be closed out. If you didn't close it out, and if it up opens positive on Friday, close out the position. If it opens lower, use Thursday's close as your stop.

1/26 Bought DPZ on the positive open. It broke out through the recent high with a J-Hook type pattern. Continue to hold as long as it stays above the T-line. 1/27 It continues to move higher. It consolidated a little bit on Tuesday but is still in an uptrend. Continue to hold. We don't want to see it close back below Monday's open at around a $6.70 level. 1/28 It's simply resting. Notice when it pulled back on Wednesday, it didn't do anything decisive. Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 1/29 It continued to pull back, but indecisively. It needs to stay above the T-line. Watch for a day when it gaps down right to the T-line and then starts coming back up. You can be a buyer at that point. 1/30 It closed just above the T-line. It needs to open higher and trade higher to continue to hold. If it opens lower on Monday, close out the position immediately. 2/2 It closed above the T-line. This can be bought aggressively on a positive open on Tuesday. 2/3 It held up above the T-line. Continue to hold. We don't want to see it close below the T-line. 2/4 It closed off $.20 on Wednesday. It needs to stay above the T-line to continue to hold. If it closes below the T-line on Thursday, close out the position. 2/5 It provided an opportunity to close out the position on Thursday, but with it closing back up above the T-line it could have been held. If you closed it out, be ready to buy it on a positive open on Friday.

1/29 EWBC was not bought on Thursday because it opened lower and continued down. The only way to buy it now is if it comes back up through the close of the previous day, which is around the $10.20 area.

1/29 THRX was not bought even though it opened higher. With the futures down as big as they were there was no need to rush into it. We saw it open and immediately start selling off. It formed a Dark Cloud signal at the same level where it formed before. It may be forming a Double Top.

1/27 Bought IRE on the positive trading. It used the T-line as support. Continue to hold. It can be bought again on Wednesday if it opens positive. Use the T-line as your stop. It should come up and form a Scoop pattern at the 50 day moving average. If it comes up through that level, it should be a good strong runner. 1/28 It formed a nice Scoop pattern. Look for it to break out through the 50 day moving average in the next couple of days. It has already given us a good percentage move, up about 30%. This could be one with a 300% to 400% move in the short term. 1/29 It should have been closed out on Thursday as it closed below the T-line. We're out of the position but we will keep watching it. If it opens and starts trading higher on Friday, we would buy right back into it.

1/5 Bought DRYS. It closed positive at a new recent high. It has been gapping up over the last couple of days. This entire sector is acting strong. Continue to hold. 1/6 It traded higher on Tuesday and is continuing its uptrend. The shipping stocks are all still acting strong. 1/7 Aggressive traders could have taken some profits on the open. Profits should definitely have been taken by the end of the day. We would have taken off half the position in some of the shipping stocks. Now we're waiting to see if they will support at the T-line. 1/8 It supported near the T-line. It opened and immediately started trading up. You should now have a full position or, if it opens positive on Friday, buy back the other half of the position. 1/9 It held up nicely after a gap up off the Bullish Engulfing signal. The Rounded Bottom pattern is still in progress. 1/12 It backed off. It actually used the T-line as a "bounce" area. Continue to hold but it's currently showing a gap up Doji followed by a Bearish Engulfing signal. If it starts trading lower on Tuesday, close out the position immediately. The only way to hold on to this position now is if it opens higher and continues to trade higher. This is also being influenced by the fact that all the other transportation stocks sold off hard on Monday. 1/13 Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 1/14 It traded lower but stayed up above the T-line. Continue to hold. At this point we don't want to see any trading at all below Wednesday's low at around $14.30. Use $14.30 as your stop. If it came back down through there, it shows you the Bears are in control. 1/15 It consolidated but closed back up above the T-line. Continue to hold. This can be bought again on a positive open. 1/16 It should have been closed on Friday after forming a Bearish Engulfing signal after a Doji, with the stochastics rolling down and closing below the T-line. Now we need to see if it will support at the 20 day moving average.

1/20 SNDK was not bought. The markets opened lower and immediately started backing off.

1/20 HNT was not bought. It opened and traded down on the day. There was no reason to buy this.

1/16 Bought NUAN on the positive open on Friday. It held up pretty well. After the gap up from the previous day, this should be in a strong uptrend. The first target for traders would be somewhere up in the $12 to $13 range. For long-term investors, consider holding this for the next 6 to 12 months. 1/20 It was closed out on Tuesday after closing below the T-line. Look for it to form another buy signal before coming back into it.

1/16 Bought SFD on the positive trading. It bobbled between the T-line and the 20 day moving average but this is still an excellent buying opportunity if it opens positive on Tuesday. That would bring it up through the T-line to form a J-Hook pattern. 1/20 It was closed out on Tuesday after trading back down. It did not open above the T-line like it needed to, which basically showed that it failed the T-line.

1/13 Bought MR. Continue to hold. 1/14 It opened lower, traded up, but closed to the lower end of the trading range. It didn't do anything to reverse but it's showing a possible reversal signal. If it trades at all below Tuesday's low of around $20, close out the position. If the Bulls are in control, it should not come back into that territory. 1/15 It consolidated, almost down to the T-line, and closed higher. It can be bought aggressively if it opens positive on Friday. 1/16 It consolidated a little bit. It's forming somewhat of a Dark Cloud signal. Continue to hold this until you see a close below the T-line at around the $20.40 area on Tuesday. Use $20.40 as your stop. 1/20 It should have been closed out at the $20.40 level but if not, it definitely should've been closed out by the end of the day with it closing below the T-line.

1/12 Bought AMMD as it traded above Friday's close after it consolidated a little bit on Monday. It showed good strength. The Bulls are still there after a strong Kicker signal created a Cradle pattern. This is a good sign, especially after seeing the markets sell off. 1/13 It's still reacting to the Cradle pattern. Continue to hold. 1/14 It continued its move to the upside. The chart pattern shows the resiliency of a strong Candlestick pattern. The market was weak but yet the stock moved higher. 1/15 It continued higher. Continue to hold. At this point you'll still want to use a close below the T-line as your stop. 1/16 It's still coming out of the Cradle pattern very nicely. Continue to hold. At this point we don't want to see it close back below Friday's low of $11.41. It should stay in an uptrend from this point. 1/20 It was closed out as it traded below the $11.41 level and the previous day's open.

1/21 QID was not bought. With the markets and the futures moving up immediately on Wednesday, this started moving down. Keep it on the watch list and wait to see whether the Bullish Harami signals that formed in the Dow and the NASDAQ confirm on Thursday.

1/22 LNC was not bought.

1/22 PQ was not bought.

1/9 SHLD was not bought on Friday with it opening lower and not coming up through our buy point. Keep an eye on this though because Friday's action was profit-taking after the initial move, so watch to see if it comes back up. That's when you would want to be buying.

1/9 XTXI was not bought. It opened lower and traded down. Watch for the Pennant formation set-up and a possible breakout to the upside. That's when you would want to start buying it.

1/12 LIHR was not bought. It traded down. It needed to open higher and break through the T-line, which it didn't do. Now we expect it to move back down to the 50 day moving average.

1/7 Bought EYE late in the day as it started trying up past the previous day's close. It opened lower and the Bulls were still there afterwards. The Fry Pan Bottom pattern is still very viable. 1/8 It's doing nicely coming out of the Fry Pan Bottom pattern. It was up a nice percentage on Thursday. Continue to hold. Use the T-line as your stop. 1/9 It held up reasonably well. Continue to hold. It's still coming out of a Fry Pan Bottom pattern. 1/12 This is a prime example of why you want to know what your chart patterns are telling you. It had a buyout offer at $22. It closed on Monday at $21.65. This should be closed out. Take your profits and go. This was a good 150% or better return on the stock over the last three days. This is what makes Candlestick analysis very effective.

1/6 Bought AEG on the positive trading on Tuesday. It broke out to new highs but formed a Shooting Star type signal. We need to see a positive open on Wednesday. If it opens positive, you can buy it aggressively if you didn't buy it on Tuesday. That would tell us it's still in a breakout mode. 1/7 It opened higher and traded up most of the day, but sold off near the end of the day. This should be closed out if it opens weaker on Thursday. That would tell us it will probably come back to test the T-line. 1/8 It consolidated. It opened lower, immediately came down and tested the T-line, and came back up. Continue to hold and you can probably still buy this aggressively on a positive open on Friday. The insurance companies all seem to be doing well right now. 1/9 It consolidated but came back up. This can still be bought aggressively on a positive open on Monday. 1/12 It closed right on the T-line. It should have been closed out on Monday. If it opens higher, it can be bought back. But to be safe, this should have been closed out.

1/6 Bought EXM on the positive trading on Tuesday. It consolidated back down to the 2-EMA but it's still in a nice uptrend. Tuesday's action might be profit-taking.  Remember, some of these stocks have already had some big percentage moves. This has moved 50% in the last few days. The uptrend should still be in progress. Continue to hold. 1/7 Profit-taking came into some of the shipping stocks. This one came all the way back down to the 50 day moving average. Aggressive traders should have come out on the open with it opening lower after a Hanging Man type signal and a Shooting Star type signal. Other traders can continue to hold as long as it doesn't close below the T-line. If it closes out weaker on Thursday, you will probably want to close out the entire position and wait for the next buy signal. 1/8 It had a good day. It opened right on the 50 day moving average and closed higher. This can be bought aggressively. Just watch to see what it does when it gets to the top of the trend channel. 1/9 It popped up nicely but then faded like the rest of the shipping stocks. Continue to hold this. Now use at least $8.20 level at the halfway point of Thursday's bullish candle as your stop. If it comes back down through there, it would probably show that the Bears were back in control again. 1/12 It backed off to where it closed below the T-line. It should have been closed out on Monday.

1/14 TTES was not bought on Wednesday as it opened lower and traded down. It's staying below the 50 day moving average. It needed to open higher. With the morning futures as weak as they were, there was no reason to rush in. There was nothing to indicate that the Bulls were in control of this trend.

1/14 OSK was not bought. It opened lower, didn't really trade up at all, and came back down to the T-line. It can still be bought if it comes back up through the $12 area over the next couple of days.

1/8 Bought OFG on the positive trading on Thursday. It closed near the lower end of the trading range but still has everything going for it. If this opens higher on Friday, you can start buying it aggressively. It should eventually test the 50 day moving average. We don't want to see it close back down near the T-line. It needs to have a positive day. As a matter of fact, use Thursday's open of $7.05 as your stop. 1/9 It had a consolidation day where it traded down and then came back up. It should have been stopped out when it came down through the previous day's open and could have been bought back as it came back up through the previous day's open.  Stopping out gave us the insurance that we were not holding on to something that might be on its way back down again. 1/12 It opened lower but came right back up. Continue to hold as long as it doesn't close below the T-line. 1/13 It needs to open positive and move up to continue to hold. 1/14 It should have been closed out on the weakness on Wednesday. Even though it closed at the high end of the trading range, it closed below the T-line. Keep this on your watch list and be ready to buy it if it comes back up through the $6.90 level. If it comes back up through the T-line, you will want to be buying right back in again.

1/15 HRC was not bought. It never came up through our buy area but it did consolidate well after the Bullish Engulfing/Belt Hold signal. It can still be bought if it comes up through the T-line at around $15 on Friday.

1/5 Bought ARTC on the positive open. It was up strong on Monday. Continue to hold. There is a good possibility that it could move right back up to the 50 day moving average. 1/6 It moved up some more on Tuesday. It's moving into the gap area. It should have some good strong running room from this area. 1/7 It opened near the bottom end of the trading range, tested the T-line, and popped back up. This should only be held if it opens higher on Thursday. If it opens lower on Thursday, close out the position and see if it supports on the T-line. 1/8 It had a nice day. It bounced up off the T-line. It's in the gap area.  We're still looking at the 50 day moving average as the next target. 1/9 It held up nicely. Continue to hold. It's still in the area of the previous gap. Look for at least the 50 day moving average as being the target. Use the T-line as your stop. 1/12 It opened and immediately started trading up. It had a decent day considering the market conditions. Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 1/13 Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 1/14 It held up reasonably well on Wednesday. It's trading positive and is staying above the T-line. Continue to hold. At this point we don't want to see any trading at all back below the $7.50 level. That would tell us the Bears are too much in control. Use $7.50 as your stop. 1/15 It should have been closed out immediately on the open on Thursday. Anytime you see news about a stock that makes it gap down, which is completely different from what was expected from the current trend, you should close it out immediately. That tells us that the analysis has totally changed.

1/7 AMLN was not bought. It opened and immediately started trading down back to the T-line. Keep an eye on this one to see if it forms a Cup and Handle type pattern.

1/8 AMED was not bought on Thursday. It showed that the 200 day moving average was acting as resistance. We might see it come back down to test the 50 day moving average before coming back up. This one should not be bought on Friday unless it comes back up through the $9.38 level.


 

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