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Steve's Trading Diary - July 2008


7/28 Bought ACI on the positive trading on Monday, but it closed at the low end of the trading range on the T-line. It needs to at least open flat and trade higher on Tuesday. If it opens lower and starts trading down, you'll probably want to close out the position and wait for the next buy signal. 7/29 It traded lower but came back up and closed at the top of the trading range. It can still be bought on a positive open on Wednesday with the idea that it will come back up toward the 50 day moving average. 7/30 It moved up nicely on Wednesday. Continue to hold. We're still targeting the $65 area. 7/31 It backed off on Thursday. It's still in an uptrending channel. It closed right at the T-line. It needs to open higher and start trading higher to stay in the upward trend channel. Continue to hold. 8/1 It was closed out as it closed below the T-line.

7/31 Bought MTL on the positive open on Thursday. It consolidated but held up well despite the market conditions in the Dow. Continue to hold. Anticipate that it will pop up at least to the 50 day moving average and possibly higher. We don't want to see it close below the $19.70 area. 8/1 It closed lower. Give it one more day. It needs to close higher on Monday to continue to hold. Otherwise, close out the position and wait for the next buy signal. 8/4 It was closed out on Monday as it opened lower and started trading lower.  Now watch for a double bottom.

7/25 Bought TLB on Friday. It pulled back. If you were stopped out with it trading below $13, be ready to buy it back if it comes back up through Friday's high of $13.40. If you still own it, it should not trade below $12.91 again. That would tell us the Bears are in control and the Bulls are not trying to break it out. This needs to show strength to continue to hold if you own it. 7/28 It traded up nicely on Monday. Continue to hold. It's still trying to break out. 7/29 It broke out through the upper resistance level. Continue to hold until you see a sell signal. 7/30 It had some profit-taking on Wednesday. Continue to hold as long as it stays above the T-line at around the $14 area, or use a close below Wednesday's low of $13.83 as your stop. 7/31 It closed at about the halfway point of Tuesday's bullish candle. It needs to trade flat or higher on Friday to continue to hold. If it closes lower, especially below Thursday's low of $13.87, close out the position and see if it will support on the T-line to come back into it. 8/1 It's still holding up. Continue to hold. If it closes below the halfway point of Tuesday's large bullish candle, close it out. Give it one more day and see if it will close positive. 8/4 It closed right on the T-line. It needs to open higher and trade higher on Tuesday. If it opens lower and starts trading down, close out the position. 8/5 It's still in a strong uptrend and had a nice move on Tuesday. 8/6 It formed a Bearish Harami. It needs to trade higher on Thursday. Otherwise, you may want to come out of it and move your money somewhere else. 8/7 It was closed out immediately with the gap down. Anytime you see a sell signal and then a gap down below the T-line, you know what's happening. The sellers are in control and you should get out of it as fast as possible.

7/28 AUXL was not bought with it opening lower and trading down most of the day. The only way to buy this one now is if it comes back up through Monday's high at the $7.30 level.

7/18 Bought RF on the positive open. It consolidated a little bit but came back up and closed nicely. It can be bought aggressively if it opens positive on Monday. It could have another big day. 7/21 It continued a little bit higher. Continue to hold. It's still an uptrend. It may test the T-line and bounce back up. Hold on to this as long as it closes above the T-line. 7/22 It opened much lower. We came out of it but got back into it as it started coming back up. It can still be bought if it opens higher on Wednesday. Notice the Scoop type pattern coming off the Morning Star signal. We're still anticipating a move up to the 50 day moving average and possibly higher. 7/23 It traded higher after the big Belt Hold signal. Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 7/24 It came back down to the T-line and the 20 day moving average. It needs to show some strength to indicate that it's still in the upward trading channel. If it closes below the 20 day moving average on Friday, close out the position. 7/25 It opened and traded lower. It should be closed out on any weakness on Monday. It probably should have been closed out immediately with it trading lower on Friday. If you're still holding it, give it one more day. It needs to trade higher on Monday to continue to hold. 7/28 It tried to trade higher but closed at the low end of the trading range, which told us it failed at the T-line. This one should have been closed out.

7/17 Bought KEY on the positive open. It formed a nice Scoop pattern. We're still anticipating that it could slingshot itself back up toward the 50 day moving average at the $15 to $16 area, which is a good 50% move from here. 7/18 It's still potentially forming a very nice Scoop pattern. We're looking for it to come up to the $16 area. We don't want to see it close back below the T-line at around the $10.30 range. 7/21 It's still in a Scoop type pattern. We'd like to see this open higher and trade higher on Tuesday. 7/22 Earnings were announced. It gapped down below the T-line. We came out of it at that point but got back into it as it started back up again. It's still forming a Scoop type pattern. This Belt Hold type signal could be an instigation to get this one moving. 7/23 It used the T-line as support. It came back just slightly positive. We'd like to see it trade positive on Thursday and move higher. Use a close below the T-line at around $11.16 as your stop. 7/24 Close on a close below $11. 7/25 It traded relatively flat on Friday. It's holding near the T-line. It needs to open positive on Monday to continue the uptrend. If it opens lower and starts trading down, especially through Friday's low of $10.73, close out the position immediately. 7/28 It closed below the T-line after a Doji on Friday. This one should have been closed out.

7/14 Bought FSYS later in the afternoon after it came back up. It should have been bought sometime during the day. This is a very strong signal bouncing up off the 50 day moving average and staying above the T-line. 7/15 It's still moving up nicely. Continue to hold. It should test the $40 area pretty soon. 7/16 It's still moving up nicely and is trying to confirm the J-Hook pattern. Continue to hold. Use the T-line at around the $35 area as your stop. 7/17 It's still moving up nicely ever since the previous gap up. We want to see it test the recent highs and break through to create a new leg up. 7/18 Profit-taking occurred and it came right back down to the T-line but then closed higher. Continue to hold and use a close below the T-line as your stop. Hopefully it will open higher and start trading higher to tell us the selling is over. 7/21 It formed a Bullish Harami. It should have told us the selling has stopped. We definitely want to see it open higher and start trading higher on Tuesday. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 7/22 It's still staying above the T-line and closed near the recent highs. Continue to hold. 7/23 It may have gotten a little bit toppy on Wednesday with the Shooting Star signal. If it opens lower and starts trading lower, take some profits and come out of it. Then wait for the next buy signal which could be after it bounces up off the T-line. 7/24 It may be failing at the same place it failed before. It closed right on the T-line. It needs to open and trade higher. If it closes below the T-line, close out the position. 7/25 It held up above the T-line. It's still in an uptrend. It needs to open higher and trade higher. If it closes below $37.13, close out the position on Monday. 7/28 It closed below the T-line. It should have been closed out.

7/11 Bought RT as it came back up and traded positive on Friday. The trading action told us the profit-taking was over. This can still be bought aggressively if it opens positive on Monday. At this point use the halfway point of Friday's bullish candle as your stop, at around the $6.17 area. 7/14 It could have been bought again on Monday on the positive trading. It pulled back a little bit but can still be bought aggressively if it opens higher on Tuesday. 7/15 It's still holding above the T-line. Continue to hold but if it closes below the $6.07 level, close out the position. 7/16 It's still moving up nicely out of the Fry Pan Bottom pattern. If it can break out through the 50 day moving average, it has a good chance to run up to the 200 day moving average. Use Wednesday's low at $6.24 as your stop. If it comes back down through that level, it tells you it failed that the 50 day moving average. 7/17 It's butting up against the 50 day moving average. Now we need to see it break through that level. If it can break through the 50 day moving average, the next target would be the 200 day moving average. 7/18 It looks like it's failing at the 50 day moving average but it stayed above the T-line. If it starts trading weaker on Monday, close out the position. It needs to at least open flat and continue upwards to continue to hold. It may just be pausing as it's getting near the 50 day moving average. If you see weakness, get out of the position. We can always buy it back on the indication of a J-Hook type pattern. 7/21 It still stayed above the T-line. It opened lower and came right back up to the 50 day moving average. Look for a breakout to the upside. Still use a close below the T-line at around $6.50 as your stop. 7/22 It was able to climb up through the T-line. Look for the next target to be the 200 day moving average. 7/23 It has held up above the T-line and the 50 day moving average nicely. It should be heading for the 200 day moving average. At this point we don't want to see it close back below Wednesday's open of $7.11. 7/24 It came back and tested the T-line. It needs to stay above the 50 day moving average and the T-line on Friday. 7/25 It's still holding up above the T-line and the 50 day moving average. Give it one more day. It needs to open higher and trade higher. If it opens lower, close out the position and move to something else. 7/28 It closed below the T-line and the 50 day moving average. It should have been closed out.

7/29 Bought USS on the positive open. It fluctuated right on the open. A good place to have stopped out would have been where the low was during the day or where it closed the night before. However, if you're still holding it, it definitely needs to open and start trading positive on Wednesday to continue to hold it. Otherwise, it will probably come back down to test the T-line. 7/30 It was closed out on Wednesday as it traded lower but keep an eye on it to see if it forms a J-Hook type pattern over the next day or so. Even though this has a big loss to it, it could pick up a big gain shortly.

7/31 PBKS was not bought on Thursday because it opened lower. It tried to come back up but sold back off. The only way to buy it now is if it comes up through the $9.90 area, which would tell us the Bulls were still in control in the J-Hook pattern.

7/18 DTG was not bought. It opened and immediately started trading lower. Since we never saw any strength come into it, we never bought the position. We would still be ready to buy this if it comes back up through the $3.60 level. That would tell us the Bulls were back in control again.

7/21 CPWR was not bought on Monday. It opened lower. It traded up for a little while but not with any great market movement, so we still wouldn't have executed this. However, if it comes back up through Monday's high of $10.22, you can start buying it. That would tell you the pattern was still in progress.

7/17 Bought EHTH on the positive trading on Thursday. It formed a bottoming signal and is now breaking out from the T-line. It has the possibility of coming up toward the 50 day moving average, which would correspond with the downward trend channel. 7/18 It consolidated and closed just below the T-line but it was moving up on the close. If you didn't close it out on Friday, close it out on Monday if it opens weaker. It needs to at least open flat and start trading higher to continue to hold. 7/21 It definitely should have been closed out on Monday. There were no signs of strength.

7/22 ROYL was not bought on Tuesday. It needed to trade positive but it opened lower and stayed down because crude oil prices were down. This one doesn't look like it should be bought until it comes up through the T-line or the 50 day moving average.

7/21 Bought AMSC on the positive open. It opened higher and traded higher. Continue to hold until you see a sell signal. 7/22 It consolidated on Tuesday but came back up and closed strong. Continue to hold. We're still anticipating a test of the $45 area. 7/23 It was closed out. After the Hanging Man signal it should not have come back down below the previous day's low and it also closed below the T-line. Now watch for a Bullish Harami to see if the buyers start coming back in. This could have been a one-day sell-off.

7/24 MTG was not bought because it opened and immediately traded down. If you bought it, it should have been closed because it didn't do what it was supposed to do and it closed below the T-line.

7/24 FTEK was not bought because it opened and immediately started trading down. Even if it was bought at the high point, it should have been closed out with it closing more than halfway down Wednesday's bullish candle.

7/14 GDP was not bought. It opened higher but immediately started trading off, so there weren't any signs of buyers after the market opened. However, it can still be bought if it comes up through Monday's high of $75.49. It's still in a J-Hook pattern set-up like a lot of the other oil companies right now.

7/15 CAEI was not bought off the Cradle pattern because it needed positive trading. The lower open took it right back down to the T-line. However, it can still be bought if it comes back up through Monday's close at around the $8.25 area. If it comes up through that level, it tells you that the Cradle pattern is still in effect.

7/15 VQ was not bought. It opened and immediately started trading down. However, notice that it came down, tested the T-line, and came back up. If it comes back up through Tuesday's high at around the $24.05 level, you can start buying it. That would tell us the wave three action is still in progress.

7/3 Bought GLG on the positive open on Thursday. Notice how it used the 50 day moving average as support. It can be bought aggressively on a positive open on Monday. If it opens up above $8.34, start buying it immediately. 7/10 It now looks like there is profit-taking going on. It needs to trade higher on Friday to continue to hold. If it starts trading down, you might want to come out of it and wait for the next buy signal, which might be a bounce off the T-line. 7/11 It consolidated a little bit. Continue to hold. Still use a close below the T-line at around the $8.44 level as your stop. We're anticipating another pop to the upside. 7/14 It closed right at the T-line. It needs to open higher and start trading higher to stay in it. If it starts trading lower on Tuesday, close out the position. 7/15 It was closed out as it traded down below the T-line on Tuesday. This should have been closed immediately, especially when we saw the futures trading lower and this stock trading lower. That would have told us the T-line didn't hold. However, it did come back down and bounce off the 50 day moving average, so if it forms a Bullish Harami be ready to start buying it again.

7/1 Bought FINL on the positive open on Tuesday after the Kicker signal bouncing off the 50 day moving average. It now looks like it's trying to break out of the upper trend channel. Continue to hold as long as it stays above the T-line. 7/2 It pulled back like quite a view of the other stocks on Wednesday. It needs to open higher and trade higher to continue to hold. If it starts trading down toward the T-line, come out of it. 7/3 It held up above the T-line. It can be bought again if it opens positive on Monday. Thursday's action should just be consolidation during a nice strong uptrend off the Kicker signal. 7/10 It's staying up above the T-line. If it closes below $8.90, close out the position. 7/11 It's still in a nice steady uptrend after the previous gap up/Kicker type signal off the 50 day moving average. As long as it closes above the T-line, continue to hold. 7/14 It's still in a slow, uptrending channel. Continue to hold as long as it doesn't close below the T-line. 7/15 It was closed out on Tuesday because it opened lower, below the T-line. That told us the Bulls were not in this position anymore. It should have been closed.

7/16 ATI was not bought but can be bought as soon as it trades positive. If it opens positive and starts trading up on Thursday, you should start buying it. It could move back up to the 50 day moving average.

7/11 Bought HK as it traded positive. It used the T-line as support. Continue to hold. This should hopefully be in a J-Hook type pattern. We want to see it move higher on Monday. If it closes below the T-line, it's time to be back out of it. 7/14 It consolidated a little bit on Monday but still held up well. Continue to hold. Use a close below the T-line as your stop. 7/15 It backed off to the T-line because of the drop in crude oil prices. It closed just above the T-line. It needs to open higher and start trading higher on Wednesday to continue to hold the position. 7/16 It traded below the T-line on Wednesday but had a Doji type day. We definitely need to see a positive open and trading up through the T-line on Thursday. If it opens lower and starts trading down, it would tell us the Bears are still in control and you would want to be out of the position. 7/17 It was closed out as it opened lower on Thursday. It needed strength to tell us it would stay above the T-line, which it didn't have. You should have gotten out of it between the $43.90 area to the $43.70 area. It broke down from there.

7/2 Bought SQNM as it opened positive coming out of the small Rounded Bottom pattern. With stochastics starting to come back up, it tells us we're still in an uptrend. Continue to hold as long as it stays above the T-line. 7/3 It's still moving in an upward direction. Notice it formed a Doji but the stochastics are still heading up so there is nothing yet to tell us it's running out of steam. Continue to hold and use a close below the T-line as your stop. 7/10 It's staying above the T-line. Continue to hold. 7/11 It continues to consolidate nicely before moving back up. Continue to hold. 7/14 It has moved up nicely and had a big move on Monday. Just be careful. Notice that exuberant buying is occurring in the overbought area. It might be time to start taking some profits. 7/15 It's still moving higher and is starting to break out. Be ready to take some profits. 7/16 It formed a Doji on Wednesday with the market up strong, so there may be some profit-taking going on. Wednesday would have been a good day to take at least half the position off. It needs to open higher and trade higher on Thursday to continue to hold. If it opens lower, take off the entire position. 7/17 It was closed out on Thursday with a good profit on the other half of the position. It opened higher and came back down through the previous day's close which told us the Bears were trying to get in. This was a good trade. We got in at around the $13.70 level and got out at the $21 area.

7/10 OSK was not bought. It did not confirm. It had the potential to bounce up but it traded flat so it was never executed.

7/10 CSUN was not executed. It did not confirm. If it closes up above $7.75 in the next day or two, you can start buying it aggressively.

7/2 Bought KEY on the positive open as it traded higher but we closed it out as it closed back below the T-line. Could it go higher? Yes. The indications are that it could, but it closed back below the T-line which has been acting as resistance, so why take the chance? If you buy it and it bobs sideways for the next 10 days, you will have tied up your money. It can always be bought back on the next buy signal.

7/1 Bought PDO on the positive open but it backed off. It stayed up above the T-line and the $35 level. Continue to hold. This can be bought again, especially if it comes back up through the $39 area. 7/2 It should have been closed out, especially when it came back down through the low of the gap up day. That told us the Bears were still in control. If you didn't close it then, it should have been closed as it closed below the T-line. This can always be bought back on a positive signal.7/3 HNT was not bought. This is a good example of why you want to see confirmation. It needed a positive open on Thursday to get into the position. It gapped down so this would not have been executed.


 

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