Daily Market Comments - June 2008
6/27 - Stock Market Comments
The extensive selling of the markets in the oversold condition should be representing the possibility of the bottom getting near. With today being a Friday in the middle of the summer, do not anticipate any great market movement. Until a definite buy signal appears in the Dow and the NASDAQ, consider the downtrend still in progress. But be vigilant in looking for reversal signals.
6/26 - Stock Market Comments
Today's gap down in both the Dow and the Nasdaq is occurring in the oversold conditions. Start watching for the buying to start after the selling washes out today. Oil and mining stocks continue to act well.
6/25 - Stock Market Comments
On Tuesday both the Dow and the NASDAQ formed Doji signals. Today's positive open should have a good probability of at least creating a short-term bounce in the market. The crucial test will be whether the markets can close above the T-line. Continue to hold oil stocks and mining stocks. Unless there is a severe buy signal, anticipate that the trend is still down or at best sideways.
6/20 - Stock Market Comments
Thursday's strength in the NASDAQ was significant. We are beginning to see a divergence between the Dow and the NASDAQ. This is a very unusual situation. Usually both indexes will move somewhat in the same direction. The DOW still requires a significant bullish reversal signal to change its downtrend. The NASDAQ has been showing more bullish indications, moving relatively sideways for the last couple of months. This makes for very lethargic market direction. Continue to maintain positions in the strong sectors.
6/19 - Stock Market Comments
The T-line is acting as strong resistance for this market reversal. The Dow could not get up through that level. As long as these markets continue to trade below the T-line, the downtrend will still be in progress. There are still sectors to be buying. The oil stocks and the solar stocks are showing continued strength. The summer may be an exercise to find and maintain positions in a few strong sectors.
6/16 - Stock Market Comments
The positive trading on Friday confirmed the Inverted Hammer in the Dow and the Spinning Tops in the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The Dow closed above the T-line. The Nasdaq closed above the 50 day MA. Today's futures are showing weakness. Crude oil is again causing concern, as well as a weaker industry report this morning. Be a buyer but still be nimble until a bullish confirmation is experienced. That may involve a few days above the moving averages.
6/13 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow formed an Inverted Hammer on Thursday. The Nas and S&P 500 formed Doji/Harami's. We need to see a positive open to confirm a potential bottom reversal today. The morning futures are indicating that will happen. Be a buyer, using Thursday's market lows as points to get back out.
6/11 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow formed a Doji on Tuesday with the lows supporting at the 12,200 level. A positive open would be favorable for the Bulls after Tuesday's Doji. However, this morning's futures appear to be showing a relatively flat opening. The NASDAQ traded lower on Tuesday but once again supported right on the 50 day moving average. The markets appeared to be trying to find a bottom. Crude oil prices are still the major damper on this market. It opened two dollars higher again today but on Tuesday it formed a "Two Dark Crows" signal, which is a bearish signal. If crude oil closes below Tuesday's close, the downtrend in oil will have started.
6/10 - Stock Market Comments
This morning's future appear to be giving back everything the Dow gained on Monday. As mentioned over the past few mornings, the trend has to be considered in a downtrend until a buy signal is confirmed. However, the markets are in oversold conditions. Start watching for buy signals.
6/9 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow formed a Morning Star signal on Thursday. Obviously it did not confirm that signal on Friday. However, the Dow did form a Bearish Engulfing signal in the oversold condition. That usually means to start watching for a candlestick buy signal. The NASDAQ traded weaker but is still trading in the channel. Remain nimble. Stay with the sectors that are showing strength.
6/4 - Stock Market Comments
As expected, the weakness persisted on Tuesday in the markets. The short-term pullback is more pronounced in the Dow versus the other indexes. Trend channels in most of the indexes continue to be the predominant factor. The NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and the S&P 500 appear to be maintaining the slow upward trend channel. The Dow is the only major index that is exhibiting weakness below its current trend channel. The transportation index seems to be holding up well. Continue to be nimble. A few short positions in the portfolio might be prudent. The markets appear to be in an indecisive pullback stage. There will still be strong sectors in these types of market conditions. Continue to invest in those areas, provided the bottom does not fall out of the markets.
6/3 - Stock Market Comments
Monday's selling indicated that the relevent moving averages for each index was going to be perceived as resistance levels. The Dow showed a failure of the 50 day MA, the Nasdaq the 200 MA. Although this morning's<