Daily Market Comments - April 2008
4/30 - Stock Market Comments
Tuesday's trading indicated no change in investor sentiment. The slow uptrend is still in progress. Today's open reveals the same scenario. The uptrend should continue until a test of the 200 day moving average occurs. The market may not have too much activity today until after the Fed meeting.
4/28 - Stock Market Comments
The strength in the markets Friday afternoon demonstrated the fact that a bullish trend was still in progress. The T-line definitely acted as support. The selling occurred in the morning with the buying occurring in the afternoon. This is evidence of a bull market trend. Today's futures indicate a flat open. The upward bias is still predominant but it may be a slow and steady process.
4/24 - Stock Market Comments
The positive trading of Thursday was further confirmation that the uptrend is attempting to test the 200 day moving average. The uptrend should continue until stochastics get into the overbought condition and we see a definite sell signal.
4/23 - Stock Market Comments
Both the Dow and the NASDAQ pulled back and just touched the T-line on Tuesday. The morning futures today illustrate buying coming back into the market. Until the indexes can close below the T-line, assume the trend is still in an upward bias. Crude oil prices are at $120 per barrel, yet that doesn't seem to be putting a huge damper on investor sentiment.
4/22 - Stock Market Comments
Monday's consolidation in the markets was pretty much expected. The NASDAQ showed continued strength. After a strong fast move like we've seen over the past four trading days, it will not be unusual to see the markets move sideways for a few days allowing the T-line to catch-up. Continue to stay long.
4/21 - Stock Market Comments
It was another strong day in the markets on Friday. Expect some consolidation/profit-taking today. The bullish market trend should remain in progress because there is still a good number of talking heads on CNBC telling us why there is still bad news ahead. Continue to hold your long positions.
4/17 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow formed a Morning Star signal on Wednesday which also set up a Scoop pattern. Expect some profit-taking today but with the formations of the patterns Wednesday in both the Dow and the Nasdaq, the uptrend once again becomes the predominat bias.
4/16 - Stock Market Comments
The markets showed moderate strength going into the close on Tuesday. However, it wasn't enough to indicate a change of investor sentiment. The stochastics still show a day or two of more potential downside. Today's futures are bullish due to INTC earnings. The Dow needs to close above the halfway point of Friday's large bearish candle before the bearish sentiment is negated. Any buying today should be down with a finger remaining on the trigger.
4/14 - Stock Market Comments
The hard selling of Friday from the negative GE report indicated which direction the buyers and sellers were going to move the market after seven indecisive trading days. It has to be assumed that the bearish sentiment is now in control of the market. An obvious sideways trading channel may be becoming the overriding technical factor. Short-term trading should be oriented toward the downside. The only caveat would be an unusually strong bullish day today that would negate most of the selling of Friday. Adding some of the short index funds to the portfolio might be prudent.
4/10 - Stock Market Comments
Although the Dow closed slightly above the T-line on Wednesday, the other indexes closed below the T-line. Expect some more sluggishness in this market until the stochastics get toward the oversold conditions. There will be stocks trying to move up, but they will do so with much less vigor. It will be prudent to have both long and short positions in the portfolio until this market gets rid of the short-term downward bias.
4/9 - Stock Market Comments
The trading showed another indecisive trading day on Tuesday, albeit slightly lower. However, both the Dow and the NASDAQ remained above their T-lines. This morning's futures indicate a relatively flat open. This sideways, indecisive trading area is going to have a breakout one way or the other. When it breaks out, that will be the direction the next trend will move with relatively good force. Currently the bias is still bullish until the signals show otherwise.
4/8 - Stock Market Comments
The fact that the Dow was up over 100 points on Monday and closed as a Doji indicates the lack of bullish conviction. The past four trading days have shown indecision. Monday's indecision occurred after evidence of potential bullish activity. The lack of buying later in the day showed weakness after the initial bullish move. This morning's futures indicate more weakness. Anticipate some sell-off or, at best, choppy trading for the next few days. For any long positions that are not showing decent strength, close them out and sit in cash until something more definitive can be seen in the market trend.
4/7 - Stock Market Comments
The markets held up very well on Friday, indicating the Bulls were still in control. The expected sideways consolidation allowed the T-line to catch up. Today's positive open reveals more evidence the bearish sentiment is dwindling. This is despite of crude oil prices remaining relatively high. Continue to hold the sectors that have been showing strength in this last uptrend. Solar energy, oil drilling, and the housing sector are showing good strength.
4/4 - Stock Market Comments
The morning futures are still holding up reasonably well after a very weak employment report. The fertilizer stocks are showing good strength after a very strong earnings report from MOS. There will be sectors showing good strength in spite of the next few trading days possibly being flat in the markets. Stay long but obviously we do not want to see a big selling day in the market today.
4/3 - Stock Market Comments
Wednesday's consolidation was anticipated after the big move. Today's futures indicate more weakness. Look for more consolidation today and possibly on Friday. There will be sectors still moving positive during this consolidation period. Remain predominantly long, be nimble, and be selective.
4/2 - Stock Market Comments
The Bullish Harami of Monday was well confirmed on Tuesday. Another 400 point move in the Dow clearly illustrates the Bulls enthusiasm to get into the markets while the pullbacks show indecisive formations. The 200 day moving average remains the upside target. After 400 points on Tuesday, anticipate some profit-taking today.
4/1 - Stock Market Comments
On Monday, Bullish Harami's formed in both the Dow and the NASDAQ, indicating the selling had stopped. Today's positive futures premarket show confirmation of the Bullish Harami. Obviously we want to see buying continuing into the close. Be a buyer today.