Daily Market Comments - September 2005
09/01 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 1, 2005
September is here. Will that bring gas prices down?
As anticipated with Candlestick signals, the measure
of investor sentiment, it would not be surprising
to see consumers driving less this coming month.
Once oil prices break, they should come down hard.
The heavy construction stocks should continue to act well.
Any excess capacity in those companies is going to be
well sopped up in the coastal area.
The Dow formed another Bullish Engulfing signal
Wednesday. The NASDAQ formed a bullish candle
after a Doji. The bullish candle closed above the 50
day moving average. Look for more buying over the
next few trading days.
09/07 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 7, 2005
Stock Market Lesson Plans - An Easy Process With Candlesticks.
Stock market lesson plans become very easy to follow when utilizing Candlestick analysis. Very simply, over the past two weeks while the Dow Jones was in the oversold condition, a few Candlestick bullish signals appeared. The Tweezer Bottom and the Bullish Engulfing signals illustrated that a bottom was forming.
At the same time, all the hype about Crude Oil prices appeared to be running rampant. $100 a barrel oil, what would that do to the US economy? The hurricane, how would that constrict the flow of oil? Gas lines, price gouging, spot shortages, all these things were being touted by the media. However, the Crude Oil chart was showing a Candlestick sell signal. That information should have been put into the stock market lesson plans. Despite what the news indicates, the Candlestick signals tell you exactly what investor sentiment is doing.
Where did the big buying pressure come from on Tuesday? The signals had indicated the last two weeks that an uptrend may be starting. Look for some consolidation today, profit-taking from the big move on Tuesday, but then look for the uptrend to continue.
09/08 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 8, 2005
09/09 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 9, 2005
Thursday, we saw the consolidation expected for the
prior day. As witnessed, the selling was not aggressive,
with buying coming back into the market late in the day.
The uptrend should still be intact. Crude Oil
prices have pulled back to the 50 day moving average
as expected. It will not be unusual to see some
congestion at this level for Crude Oil prices until
the stochastics get to the oversold area.
Continue to hold the long positions. Many patterns are
working very well in this market. The Fry Pan Bottom pattern
made for some good profits in CAMD on Thursday.
There are still a good number of stocks moving very well
off of good Candlestick buy signals in this market.
09/12 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 12, 2005
Friday we saw the continuation of a good uptrend. All the
indexes showed good strength. The markets are telling
what the result will be from the hurricane. The U. S.
economy is going to have a huge area of buying, taking
a number of sectors to full capacity. The Candlestick
signals are already indicating which sectors should benefit
the most. Continue to stay long in the good chart patterns.
The uptrend should show a few more positive days
before some profit-taking steps in.
Crude Oil prices have not shown any strength for the past
week. More weakness should add more strength to the
09/13 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 13, 2005
09/14 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 14, 2005
On Tuesday the Dow formed an Evening Star signal,
indicating the profit-taking that was expected after
the Spinning Top on Monday. Anticipate a few days
of profit-taking, probably moving the indexes back
to test the 50 day moving average. Unless the
pullback shows any severe selling, continue to hold
long positions that are acting well. Aggressive traders
may want to put on a short position or two.
Crude Oil prices are trading right on the 50 day
moving average. A positive open this morning
in Crude Oil prices might indicate a bounce
for a day or two. This may give the equity markets
reason to consolidate.
09/15 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 15, 2005
The Evening Star signal in the Dow was confirmed
Wednesday. The Dow came right back to the 200 day
moving average. The NASDAQ closed below the 50 day
Today will be important to watch whether the 200 day
moving average acts as support for the Dow. Some profits
should have been taken in the last few days. Be prepared
to add a short positionor two if the markets close weaker
today. The Dow needs to see a Bullish Harami in today's
trading to indicate that this pullback of the last couple of
days is merely profit-taking.
09/16 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 16, 2005
Thursday was somewhat of an indecisive trading day. The Dow
formed a Doji/Spinning Top right on the 200 day moving average.
The NASDAQ showed a slightly weak day. The strength of the
futures this morning indicate enough buying to tell
us that the sellers have not come in yet to control
Crude Oil prices appear to be weak this morning, coming
back down toward the 50 day moving average. A breach
of the moving average a second time would indicate
that the 200 day moving average might be the next target.
Continue to hold the majority of long the positions
with a few short positions in the portfolio.
09/19 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 19, 2005
The strength in the indexes on Friday revealed that
the moving averages were acting as support. Additional
strength today would be further confirmation that the Dow
will test the 10,700 level once again. If so, expect
a breach of that level which would mean that the uptrend
Conversely, weakness over those next few days would be
more of an indication that the markets were going to be trading
flat for the next few weeks. Crude Oil prices closed
below the 50 day moving average on Friday. Further
weakness could make the next target the 200 day
moving average. The significant weakness in Crude Oil
over the next few weeks should add strength to the
09/20 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 20, 2005
09/21 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 21, 2005
09/22 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 22, 2005
There will no reason for buyers to step into this market
until the hurricane path is known. Continue to stay
relatively short. The long positions should be held
only if they have shown good strength in the past few days.
Crude Oil prices are still heading higher.
09/23 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 23, 2005
On Thursday the buying came in just as the Dow hit
the same low that it hit in late August. However, the
stochastics indicate another two or three days of
nondirectional trading. The strong stocks are
in obvious bullish sectors. The heavy construction
companies are doing well.
The short positions are performing well also. Continue
to hold a mixture of long and short positions until
the market direction can be identified. That will probably
be a few days after the hurricane.
09/26 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 26, 2005
The hurricane is over. The damage was not nearly as bad
as what was anticipated. The futures show buying strength
after two bottoming days at the end of last week. The Dow
formed a Doji on Friday. The NASDAQ formed a bullish
candle after the Spinning Top of Thursday. Stochastics
have reached the oversold condition and are starting
to curl back up. We anticipate a test of the moving
averages over the next few days. This should give
the upside potential at least three or four days.
Crude Oil prices are showing a Head and Shoulders
pattern. A break below the $63 area could start a very
09/27 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 27, 2005
The weakness that came into the markets Monday
afternoon revealed that the uptrend was not ready to
get started. Stochastics in most of the indexes, although
near the oversold area, indicate that the downtrend
may still have a little ways to go. From the trading action
in the markets over the past three days, the downward
action may be some sideways price movement or just
a day or so of sloppy trading. Crude Oil prices
will still be a key factor. Continue to hold long positions
that are in strong sectors and continue to hold
short positions that have not yet shown buy signals.
Being positioned both long and short is the proper
strategy until the market shows a clear direction.
09/28 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 28, 2005
09/29 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 29, 2005
Although the direction of the market was slightly positive
Wednesday, it still traded in a manner that indicated
that there was no decisive move one way or the other.
The stochastics have now come up out of the oversold
The trend of the market is definitely
contingent on the price of oil. Crude Oil prices
appear to be in a trading range which lends the price
to be moving a little higher. This is going to keep
a damper on the equity markets.
09/30 - Stock Market Comment - Sept. 30, 2005