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08/03 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 3, 2005
Good Morning,
The strength of the uptrend is coming from the fact
that nobody is out there screaming and yelling that the
markets are in an uptrend. The slow steady rise of the
markets provides a platform for the strong stocks to
continue to move. The longer the uptrend persists,
the greater the probability of seeing some very strong
stock prices.
NTES, which was recommended two weeks
ago after a strong Morning Star signal right on
the 50 day moving average at the $56 level, has moved up
14 points overnight. The longer the uptrend persists,
the greater the opportunity to have a big move in prices.
Continue to hold your long positions.
08/04 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 4, 2005
Good Morning,
The futures indicate a lower open this morning. There do
not appear to be any relevant signals to indicate
full-scale selling. Until a severe sell signal becomes evident,
continue to hold the long positions. The uptrend
should maintain its slow upward movement.
Crude Oil formed a Bearish Engulfing signal Wednesday
at the same level where prices peaked out a few weeks
ago. A breakdown in Crude Oil prices should maintain
strength in the markets.
08/05 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 5, 2005
Good Morning,
The selling in Thursday's trading confirmed the
Hanging Man signal seen in the Dow the previous day.
The NASDAQ formed a Kicker signal. Expect some selling over the next few days.
Crude Oil should still be trending down after the
Bearish Engulfing signal of Thursday.
08/08 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 8, 2005
Good Morning,
Over the past couple of trading days all the of indexes
showed sell signals. The Dow formed a Bearish Engulfing signal
after a Hanging Man. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500
formed a Kicker signal this past week. The Russell 2000
formed a Bearish Harami that was confirmed. The uptrend
had persisted when the indexes were trading positive
when the Dow was trading flat. A reversal in a trend
is much more convincing when all of the indexes indicate
that selling has come in across-the-board.
Although this morning's futures are trading positive,
anticipate more downside movement in the markets over
the next few days. Expect the Dow to come back and test
the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
Crude Oil prices are testing the recent highs. However,
a Bearish Engulfing signal formed three days ago
at the top. Weaker prices today in Crude Oil would indicate
a reluctance to break out to new high prices. A failure
of this level could maintain some strength in the equity markets.
There will be a 'Members Only Stock Chat session tonight at 8:00 p.m.
Eastern time.
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08/09 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 9, 2005
Good Morning,
The Dow has come back to the moving average area.
Although the futures indicate some strength this morning,
we would not be surprised to see the indexes trading
in a flat range for the next couple of days, allowing
the stochastics to get into the oversold areas.
Crude Oil prices continuing to move higher will be putting
a damper on any bullish sentiment in the markets
until we see a pullback in Crude Oil.
In these market conditions, there are still longs
that are acting well and we have added some short
positions to the portfolio. Do not expect any significant
selling in this market, a pullback has been expected. |
08/10 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 10, 2005
Good Morning,
On Tuesday the Dow formed a Morning Star signal,
the NASDAQ formed a Bullish Harami. The Dow had
a low on Monday that just touched the moving averages.
Although the stochastics are not quite in the oversold
condition, the other factors of the strong Candlestick
signals in a bounce off of the moving averages makes
being on the long side that much more compelling.
Crude Oil prices after a gap up two days ago was followed
by a Bearish Harami on Tuesday. A weaker open in Crude Oil
today should be the start of a downtrend in Crude Oil prices.
That trend may be for a few days or it could be for
much longer. Whatever the extent, lower Crude Oil prices
should help add strength to the equity markets.
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08/11 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 11, 2005
Good Morning,
The pullback Wednesday indicated that the potential
reversal did not confirm. Although the Dow formed a
nice bullish signal off of the 50 day moving average,
the stochastics indicated that they were not in the
oversold area yet. The NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the
Russell 2000 all had signals that could potentially
indicate bullish reversals had they confirmed.
Expect a few more days to the downside but also expect
the pullback to be relatively mild. |
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08/12 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 12, 2005
Good Morning,
The strength of this market is evident in the Candlestick
formations. Not to overstate the obvious, but the buying
has continued after the Dow bounced off of the 50 day
moving average. The NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the
Russell 2000 are all showing Harami-type signals and the
stochastics are starting to curl back up. Additional buying
will warrant buying aggressively.
Crude Oil prices remain strong and the equity markets
continue to show strength. Somebody thinks that the
naysayers are wrong about the future of the economy. |
08/15 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 15, 2005
Good Morning,
Friday's trading had the opportunity to confirm a bullish
uptrend. Thursday's trading in the Dow closed right
at the top of the recent trading channel. The selling
brought the Dow's prices back into the middle of the
trading channel.
The NASDAQ had formed a Bullish Harami signal on
Thursday. Although the NASDAQ gapped down on
Friday, it formed a Hammer signal. The same type of
trading occurred in the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000.
The lower trading on Friday created some indecisive
signals. Stochastics are in the oversold area. The
scenario remains the same. Look for the recent pullback
to be bottoming out with mild selling. Something should
move the markets back up over the next few days. Most
likely it will be a break in the oil prices.
08/16 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 16, 2005
Good Morning,
Monday's buying in the afternoon was additional
confirmation that the selling in the markets over the past
week was not going to be anything severe. The stochastics
for the major indexes have now moved back into the
oversold area well demonstrating Candlestick buy formations.
The NASDAQ has formed a couple of bullish Harami's in
the past six trading days as well as a Hammer followed by
a Bullish Engulfing signal yesterday. The stochastics
have moved into the oversold area and appear to be
wanting to curl back up. Both the S&P 500 and the
Russell 2000 are demonstrating bullish indicators.
Start watching for strong buy signals in specific industries
very soon.
08/17 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 17, 2005
Good Morning,
The Dow sold off to below the 200 day moving average.
The NASDAQ is now nearing the 50 day moving average.
The anticipated slow sell-off picked up speed Tuesday.
This made getting to the anticipated moving average
targets much quicker. Anticipate another couple of days
of pullback action before witnessing buy signals in the
stochastics in the oversold conditions.
Crude Oil has formed two Doji's over the last couple of days.
Watch for weakness today.
08/18 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 18, 2005
Good Morning,
The Dow and the S&P 500 appeared to support right at the
major moving averages. The NASDAQ formed a Bullish
Harami. The stochastics for all of the indexes are getting
near the oversold conditions.
The two Doji's at the top of the Crude Oil chart
indicated the potential of a price pullback. We suspect
Crude Oil prices will come back down and testthe 50
day moving average at around $60.50.A move to that
level should help with the bottoming action in the equity
markets.
08/19 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 19, 2005
Good Morning,
The NASDAQ appears to be wanting to test the 50
day moving average. The Dow should be trading
indecisively until the NASDAQ does reach the 50 day
moving average, which more than likely will be
today.
Crude Oil prices moved higher this morning based on
an attack on the transport ship. However, the overall
trend in Crude Oil prices should be down for the next week or so.
Start watching for good buy signals in some stocks.
08/22 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 22, 2005
Good Morning,
The slow downtrend is still evident. However, the moving
averages still appear to be holding as support levels. Hold
the long positions until a severe sell signal appears.
Crude Oil picked up strength on Friday. It needs
to be watched. If it fails to produce a new high
in the next few days, it may be a sign that the Bearish
E ngulfing signal of last week is still in effect.
Continue to purchase long positions that show good chart
formations.
08/23 - Stock Market Comment - Aug 23, 2005
Good Morning,
The buying was apparent most of Monday. However,
by the end of the trading day, trading came back
to the opening levels. This created Long-legged
D oji's in the Dow and the NASDAQ. This indecision
signal occurred very close to the 50 day moving averages.
Any positive trading today would warrant aggressive
buying.
Crude Oil had an opportunity to trade higher Monday.
By the end of the day, both Crude Oil and Natural Gas
traded near the low end of their trading range.
Any further weakness in Crude Oil would indicate
that a new high was not going to be reached.
This weakness should cause some strength in the
equity markets.
08/24 - Stock Market Comment - Aug 24, 2005
Good Morning,
The slow market decline that has been projected for the
past two weeks has now reached the support levels,
the moving averages. Stochastics have gotten back
to the oversold condition. What should be the next
market trend expectation?
This morning the economic news shows that large consumer
sales are down much greater than expectations.
The markets will open lower. The trading needs to be watched
to see what Candlestick formation is seen today.
Weakness going into the close would indicate more selling
for the next few days as the major moving averages
would have been violated. On the other hand, a lower
open at the end of a slow down trend may eventually
form a bullish signal today.
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08/25 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 25, 2005
Good Morning,
Although the Dow sold off relatively hard on Wednesday,
the NASDAQ formed an Inverted Hammer very close to
the 50 day moving average. Both indexes are in the oversold
condition.
A bullish day in the NASDAQ would confirm the Inverted
Hammer signal. If this occurred right at the 50 day
moving average, it would have great significance
as far as indicating a trend reversal.
Crude Oil closed right near its all-time high on Wednesday.
The stochastics indicate that it could go higher.
However, if the price appears to fail the current level,
this would indicate a Double Top. Weakness in the Crude
Oil prices from this level could add strength to the
equity markets.
There will be an open chat session tonight at 8:00 p.m.
Eastern time. Please tell all of your friends! |
08/26 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 26, 2005
Good Morning,
Thursday's trading demonstrated the lack of direction. It
is not unexpected as the indexes are trading very close
to the moving averages. It is a Friday in late summer.
There may not be any great movement in today's trading.
The indexes are oversold, apparently looking for
a catalyst to get moving. Continue to hold the long
positions that are doing well in this market.
08/29 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 29, 2005
Good Morning,
The hurricane is going to be the predominant factor
in today's trading. The expectation of what has happened
to the oil rigs offshore is going to greatly influence
Crude Oil prices today. Although this is short-term
reaction trading, it will influence investor sentiment.
Friday did not show any buying support in this
market. What needs to be seen today is an early sell-off
followed by late afternoon buying to indicate a bottom
to this recent downtrend.
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08/30 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 30, 2005
Good Morning,
Although the markets showed good bullish signals
Monday in the oversold condition, the uncertainty
of the hurricane situation will probably make for
a few days of bottoming action before a major
uptrend can get started. Crude Oil, opening at $69
on Monday, immediately started pulling back. The dark
candle that it formed should be an indicator
that prices may have a hard time climbing from this
level.
Continue to buy the good long positions but be nimble. |
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08/31 - Stock Market Comment - Aug. 31, 2005
Good Morning,
Tuesday's final hour of trading brought the Dow back up
from the lows of the day. The most striking feature
is the fact that the low of Tuesday was exactly
the same low that was hit by the Dow on the previous
day. This forms a Tweezer Bottom. A Bullish Engulfing
signal was formed on Monday in the Dow. Tuesday,
the formation was not quite a Hammer signal but it did
form a Tweezer Bottom. This becomes significant when
occurring in the oversold conditions.
The market is trying to bottom. Be prepared to buy
but this does not need to be done aggressively until
strong buy signals appear in the markets again. |
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