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07/15 - Stock Market Comment - July 15, 2005
Good Morning,
The NAS and the S&P formed Doji's Thursday while the DOW produced a strong bullish candle. This should indicate that there may be some consolidation in some areas but overall trend is still up. Crude Oil is showing weakness after a strong Bearish Engulfing signal of five trading days ago.
Continue to hold the longs but expect some sector rotation.
07/18 - Stock Market Comment - July 18, 2005
Good Morning,
Last Friday the Dow and the NASDAQ formed Doji or Spinning Top signals. This indicated some indecision in the overbought area. Friday was an option expiration day. H owever, the market signals are the cumulative knowledge of everybody that is buying and selling during a time frame.
The Dow is showing indecision at the recent high formed in late June. A pullback from here, especially with some indication of weakness in the futures this morning, could possibly be a test back to the moving averages. Consider taking some profits on weakness today.
07/19 - Stock Market Comment - July 19, 2005
Good Morning,
What could have been the potential for a sell-off after the Dow formed an Evening Star signal may be negated this morning with the futures acting much stronger. The IBM report has produced new confidence. Unless the market creates a Bearish Engulfing signal today, continue to stay long.
07/20 - Stock Market Comment - July 20, 2005
Good Morning,
With the stochastics showing the markets in the overbought condition, a toppy pattern may be forming when each day can be influenced by a major earnings report. The next few days should be a period of time when profit-taking can be executed in charts that are starting to show sell signals. However, there will be charts still acting strong in this market.
A pullback to the major moving averages would not be an unusual occurrence. The Dow formed an Evening Star signal over the past few days prior to Tuesday's strong trading. It appears as if the market could open at the lower end of Tuesday's trading. That would be a bearish signal.
07/21 - Stock Market Comment - July 21, 2005
Good Morning,
Oil prices appear to be heading for the 50 day moving average. Interest rates appear to be staying steady. Both of these factors should lead to further investor confidence. The uptrend is still intact with the fact that any early selling during the day is followed with buying near the close. The NASDAQ formed a Kicker-type signal on Tuesday and showed continued buying on Wednesday. The Dow has closed above the June highs and the stochastics, although overbought, are still in an uptrend.
Although the markets could appear toppy in this area, there are numerous sectors that remain very strong. Continue to hold the strong stocks. The market conditions are such that profits will still be made in specific sectors even if the indexes decide to pull back and test the recent moving averages that they breached.
07/22 - Stock Market Comment - July 22, 2005
Good Morning,
The Dow formed a Bearish Engulfing signal on Thursday. The NASDAQ, although it pulled back, did not form a Candlestick sell signal. Both indexes are in the overbought area. The Dow formed an Evening Star signal about a week ago. This scenario is indicating that there should be some toppiness in the markets in the near term. This does not necessarily mean a full-scale pullback. It would imply some profit-taking and some sideways movement in action.
Crude Oil prices have come back and tested the 50 day moving average as the signals had indicated. Weakness in Crude Oil prices should maintain some strength in the equity markets.
Specific sectors, such as oils and mining are still showing good strength. Continue to hold the strong stocks and consider taking some profits on charts that are showing visible sell signals.
07/25 - Stock Market Comment - July 25, 2005
Good Morning,
The Bearish Engulfing signal in the DOW on Thursday was not confirmed on Friday. Stochastics indicate the markets being in an overbought condition. However, the uptrend has not shown any severe sell signals. The longer an uptrend persists, the more definite a sell signal should be. Otherwise the uptrend remains intact.
Continue to hold the long positions. Currently, there are numerous sectors that continue to show strength. Crude Oil prices showed a bounce on Friday but nothing that would indicate a trend reversal.
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07/26 - Stock Market Comment - July 26, 2005
Good Morning,
Monday's sell-off in the Dow closed right on a supporting trend line. Stochastics have turned over and are starting to head down. If the Dow trades down through the recent lows, expect a test of the 50 day moving average. The NASDAQ shows a potential pullback but no major sell signal.
Be prepared to take some profits on weakness over the next couple of days. |
07/27 - Stock Market Comment - July 27, 2005
Good Morning,
Nothing was indicated Tuesday that would have confirmed any selling coming into the markets. Although the Dow sold off a little bit on the close, the rest of the indexes showed some strength. The market actions of the past few days of trading now indicate more of a consolidation period versus any massive selling.
Continue to hold the long positions, taking profits in positions that have sell signals, and be ready to move those funds into the new sectors.
07/28 - Stock Market Comment - July 28, 2005
Good Morning,
The scenario remains the same, there does not seem to be any massive selling in this market. Earnings reports continue to remain strong. The NASDAQ appears to be forming a J Hook pattern. The Dow has held up well in the latest congestion area. Continue to hold the long positions. The uptrend will remain intact until a severe Candlestick sell signal is witnessed.
07/29 - Stock Market Comment - July 29, 2005
Good Morning,
The uptrend is still intact. The Dow appears to be coming up out of a congestion area. The NASDAQ appears to have formed a J Hook pattern and is in the process of moving into the next bullish leg. Continue to hold the long positions.
Crude Oil prices, although moving slightly positive, could be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern. Weakness in Crude Oil prices over the next few days could be the prelude to a big drop in price. |