Daily Market Comments - June 2005
06/01 - Stock Market Comment - June 1, 2005
The Dow formed an Evening Star signal over the past
three days of trading. The NASDAQ formed a Bearish
Harami. These sell signals will foretell a pullback
upon seeing weak trading today. The 200 day
moving averages are the likely targets for a pullback.
Be prepared to take some profits over the next couple of days.
06/02 - Stock Market Comment - June 2, 2005
The Evening Star signal formed in the Dow was not
confirmed, there was buying the markets immediately
on Wednesday. This indicated that although the markets
are in an overbought condition, the pullback was
not ready to occur just yet.
Crude Oil prices were up strong Wednesday. However,
bond prices were up strong also. The atmosphere
of lower interest rates seemed to have been the
overriding factor for the strength in the markets.
Continue to hold the long positions but still be nimble.
Be prepared to take profits on any weakness.
06/03 - Stock Market Comment - June 3, 2005
The Dow formed a Doji again Thursday but the NASDAQ
showed more strength. The uptrend seems to be
continuing although both markets are in the overbought
conditions. Continue to hold your long positions
but be nimble. Anticipate that there will be some
profit-taking in the near future. However, the recent
trading of both indexes have indicated that the
long downtrend of the past few months should have
06/06 - Stock Market Comment - June 6,2005
The Dow formed a second Evening Star signal on Friday.
Although the NASDAQ sold off, it did not form a
C andlestick sell signal. The moving averages are not
too far below the current Dow trading area. With the
NASDAQ not showing a true Candlestick sell signal,
it should be analyzed that if the pullback occurs,
it will be just a pullback, not a full-fledged
reversal in the market trends.
The consistent strength that we have seen in the NASDAQ
for the past month would warrant some profit-taking.
This would be time to take profits on charts that are
producing sell signals.
06/09 - Stock Market Comment - June 9, 2005
So far the consolidation stage in this market has been
relatively mild. The stochastics indicate at least a
few more days to the downside. Both the Candlestick
longs and the Candlestick short signals have worked
well during this pullback.
Suggestions remain the same, continue to hold the
longs that have not exhibited any sell signals.
H old the shorts that are not showing any buy signals.
These are the market conditions that make utilizing
the signals both ways very profitable.
06/13 - Stock Market Comment - June 13, 2005
The consolidation is still the predominant factor. The
stochastics in the Nasdaq chart are starting to
flatten out even though it has not yet reached the
oversold condition. The DOW is showing a trading
level above the 50 day MA with the stochastics starting
to curl back up.
We're anticipating the investment sentment starting to turn
slightly more positive. Stay long unless a severe
selling spree moves the indexes down through the moving
06/15 - Stock Market Comment - June 15, 2005
Maybe because of the summer doldrums, the markets
are not moving with an great vigor for the past three
weeks. This makes for excellent conditions to maximize
the Candlestick signals potential. With the lack of market
direction, the Candlestick buy signals will work well and
the Candlestick sell signals will produce good short sales.
A close above 10590 in the DOW, the recent daily highs,
should indicate that the consolidation is over. With confidence
building up we may see the next leg of an
06/16 - Stock Market Comment - June 16, 2005
06/17 - Stock Market Comment - June 17, 2005
Although the Dow has been relatively indecisive for the
past week, it has moved up in a slow uptrend. The Nasdaq
shows a much more clear pattern of a consolidation
that was supported at the 20 day moving average and is
now moving up from there.
Continue to hold the long positions and be ready
to buy more longs if this market starts showing
continuing bullish sentiment. The longer a slow
uptrend remains in existence, the higher the probabilities
that investor sentiment will become more confident.
The consolidation may be over and we could see the next
leg up in a three-wave pattern. This would imply
that a strong rally is about to start.
06/20 - Stock Market Comment - June 20, 2005
Oil prices should be affecting the markets this morning.
Today is the first day in a few weeks where the morning futures
have been down substantially pre-market. The QQQQ's
have had a hard time pushing up through the 20 day
moving average this past week. Failure to do so
today should indicate at least a couple days of pullback.
Both the Dow and the NASDAQ have the opportunity
to break out into a higher territory today.
A failure to move into a higher trading area will
indicate that a sideways movement in the markets
will continue for the foreseeable future.
06/21 - Stock Market Comment - June 21, 2005
The Dow formed a Hanging Man/Harami Monday. This may
be the first sign of some profit-taking after two weeks
of solid upward movement. The NASDAQ opened lower
Monday, almost touched the 20 day moving average, then formed
a bullish candle. This reveals that what profit-taking
could have occurred, disappeared relatively quickly.
The markets held up relatively well in spite of strong oil prices.
This morning futures do not indicate any selling pressure.
Continue to hold the long positions until this trend
demonstrates a severe sell signal.
06/22 - Stock Market Comment - June 22, 2005
The expected consolidation in the markets has been
very light. The morning futures this morning indicate
that the buyers are still in this market. The selling
in both the Dow and the NASDAQ over the past
couple of days appears to be a healthy profit-taking
time during an uptrend.
Continue to hold the long positions. As of yet, there
has not been any severe sell signals in this market.
06/23 - Stock Market Comment - June 23, 2005
Once again the Dow and the NASDAQ traded in a very slow
and narrow trading range Wednesday. Although this
makes for less exciting potential price moves, it does
give Candlestick signals the opportunity to perform.
The lack of direction in the markets in general
allows the Candlestick signals to pinpoint which stocks
or sectors are getting the influx of buying.
The Candlestick signals reveal nothing more at this
time than what the markets have been indicating
for the past two weeks. A slow gradual uptrend
suggests continuing to hold the long positions
until a severe Candlestick sell signal is witnessed.
Crude Oil prices backed off almost a dollar on Wednesday.
Crude Oil prices continuing to head lower could be
the next catalyst for the markets.
06/24 - Stock Market Comment - June 24, 2005
As we saw on Thursday, the fear of a $60 a barrel oil
price started affecting the market. After two weeks of
Spinning Tops forming in the Dow, illustrating a lot
of daily indecision, Thursday finally culminated
the decision process. The Dow closed below the 200
day moving average making the next target the 50 day
moving average. The NASDAQ formed a Double Top,
failing to push through the 2100 area.
Take profits on long positions and consider adding
a few short positions. Anticipate some pullback to
the moving averages.
06/27 - Stock Market Comment - June 27, 2005
The pullback on Friday was anticipated after the
strong selling on Thursday. The Dow should now be targeting
the 500 day moving average. Anticipate another
few days to the downside before any market stabilization
Crude Oil prices will be moving up above the $60 a barrel
level today. That is a psychological barrier for investors.
Many of the longs were stopped out over the past
two days of trading. But as can be expected, the short
positions have worked extremely well. Remain short
until we see a buy signal.
06/28 - Stock Market Comment - June 28, 2005
Monday formed a Doji in the Dow. The NASDAQ formed
a Spinning Top. However, the stochastics in both indexes
indicate a possibility of a couple of more days to the downside.
The strength in this morning's futures should be
viewed with a little suspect. It would not be unusual
to experience a day or two of bouncing after the severe
selling of last week, but anticipate that it be just that,
a bounce. Crude Oil prices trading well below
the $60 barrow level will still put a negative
sentiment on equities.
Continue to hold the recently purchased short positions
but be aware that there are numerous stock charts
showing good buy signals. Obviously, the oil stocks
are looking strong. They are forming J Hook patterns.
06/29 - Stock Market Comment - June 29, 2005
The Dow and the NASDAQ formed a Morning Star
signal Tuesday. The last few major bottoms in the Dow
have occurred after the formation of Morning Star signals.
Both the Dow and the NASDAQ formed a reversal
signal when the stochastics were in the oversold condition.
Crude Oil prices, as expected, appear to be the stimulus
for the buying in the market. Crude Oil prices, although
going over $60 a barrel two days ago, formed a Doji.
Tuesday, Crude Oil prices gapped down and continued
in a downward direction, closing down $2.29. A gap-down
from a Doji at the top is a very strong reversal signal.
Look for Crude Oil prices to continue lower.
06/30 - Stock Market Comment - June 30, 2005
As expected, there was some consolidation Wednesday.
This morning's futures are indicating more buying.
Expect the trend to continue upward for at least a few days.
Crude Oil prices should be the stimulus.