Daily Market Comments - September 2007
9/28 - Stock Market Comments
The morning futures are slightly softer, but it's nothing that would indicate a change of investor sentiment. Today is the last day of a quarter. You might see some position shifting, but nothing that would reverse the current uptrend. A test of the recent highs is still the most likely projection. Continue to hold long positions.
9/27 - Stock Market Comments
After the Dow traded flat for a week, it formed a little Morning Star signal on Wednesday. Note how Tuesday's trading just touched the T-line. On Wednesday, the strength in the market indicated the Bulls were still in control. Continue to stay long with an anticipation of a test of the recent highs.
9/26 - Stock Market Comments
Some of the economic news this morning could have been very bearish but the futures appear to have latched on to the good news. Tuesday's market consolidation ended up with the Bulls still showing control. There have been some very strong price moves in this market which is indicative of the strong bullish sentiment that is prevailing.
9/25 - Stock Market Comments
The sideways movement in the markets was apparent on Monday. Look for more consolidation until the T-line has a chance to come up to the price trend.
9/24 - Stock Market Comments
The definition of a bull market is a market that is going up in spite of any bad news that is reported. The markets had an opportunity to continue their consolidation on Friday but showed reasonably good strength. This continues to demonstrate that the Bears are not in control of this market trend, the Bulls still maintain the upper hand. Continue to hold long positions and continue to have a short position or two in the portfolio. There are definitely strong obvious sectors. The solar sector is performing extremely well.
9/21 - Stock Market Comments
After the markets consolidated on Thursday, this morning's futures are showing very good strength. Keep in mind today is quadruple witching day for options. Currently the bullish trend should be able to approach the recent highs in the market. Continue to hold long positions.
9/20 - Stock Market Comments
The trend is obviously up but be prepared for some backing and filling. The Dow has moved away from the T-line. This would indicate that the market will move sideways or pull back until the T-line can catch up. The financial/mortgage related stocks are still getting positive results from the rate cut. As usual, maintain positions in the strong sectors.
9/19 - Stock Market Comments
The bullish sentiment was obviously witnessed after the 1/2 point cut in interest rates. Tuesday's trading brought both the Dow and the NASDAQ well above the 50 day moving average. Unless there is a huge reversal today in the markets, anticipate the uptrend continuing until a test of the recent highs is accomplished. The rest of the world markets all like what they saw on Tuesday.
9/18 - Stock Market Comments
Monday's lackluster movement in the markets was indicative of the "wait and see" attitude until the Fed's announcement today. This morning's futures are showing good strength, not the "calm before the storm" as expected. Anticipate a whipsaw action once the report comes out, but then see how the reaction settles down going into the close. Underlying factors such as better than expected earnings are still being observed. Continue to view the slow uptrending channel as the main analytical factor until something disproves this scenario.
9/17 - Stock Market CommentsThe market showed good strength on Friday with the lower open and a steady move back to the upside. The Dow closed slightly above the 50 day moving average again. The NASDAQ also showed relative bullish sentiment, closing above the 50 day moving average and the T-line. However, the fact that the day started off on a weak note was an indication that investor sentiment was not exhibiting great strength. That is being reconfirmed with this morning's futures once again showing some weakness. The uptrending channel is still the predominant analytical factor, but the candlestick formations reveal the uptrend will be slow.
9/14 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow closed essentially right at the 50 day moving average on Thursday, a possible resistance area. It would have been nice to see the premarket futures open either flat or bullish this morning to indicate the 50 day moving average was not going to be a resistance concern. However, with this morning's futures relatively negative, the potential uptrending channel will probably now be in a very slow upward direction. A reasonably bearish day today could create additional sideways movements in the markets. That sideways movement may be the predominant feature until Tuesday's Fed meeting.
9/13 - Stock Market Comments
Wednesday's trading showed consolidation which was not unexpected after the large move the previous day. A Doji formed in both the Dow and the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ closed right on the 50 day moving average. The Dow consolidated back to the T-line. Today's trading action will be important for indicating the strength of the slow uptrending channel. The morning futures are confirming the continued presence of the Bulls. Continue to stay long.
9/12 - Stock Market Comments
Bullish sentiment in Tuesday's market formed a strong Morning Star signal once again in the Dow. The other indexes showed good strength. The NASDAQ reversed from its previous day's weakness and filled the gap that was indicating strong bearish sentiment a few days ago. The negation of that gap now makes the upward trend channel a more viable analysis tool. A trend channel usually allows for choppy, inconsistent movement on a short-term basis but with a general trend projection over the longer term. As has been witnessed for the past few weeks, the big, hard selling days have been immediately reversed with bullish sentiment. Use the trend channel.
9/11 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow formed a Doji on Monday, providing some potential for a bounce today, although the other indexes did not follow suit. This morning the futures are positive, which would confirm a bounce day, but unless the markets can finish very strong today anticipate more downside. Any buying of positions today should be done so with the element of being ready to close out the positions upon non-confirmation of buying. Be nimble.
9/10 - Stock Market Comments
The Doji signals in the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 all formed at levels that made the opening on Friday fairly critical. The fact that the NASDAQ gapped down below the 50 day moving average after the Doji provided a very significant signal. Although the morning futures are slightly positive, the probabilities of the trend going lower are extremely high. Until a major bullish signal appears in the Dow or the NASDAQ, anticipate more downside. The NASDAQ could easily test the 200 day moving average again.
9/7 - Stock Market Comments
As explained in Thursday's newsletter, the direction of the markets would be greatly influenced by how they opened after the Doji signals that formed in the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000. Today's jobs report has changed investor sentiment. Until the market can get a steady direction, lighten up on long positions and add to some of the short positions.
9/6 - Stock Market CommentsThe consolidation in the markets Wednesday was to be expected when the morning futures showed weakness. The Dow closed right on the 50 day moving average on Tuesday with stochastics in the overbought condition. The move from the 200 day moving average, after the Morning Star Signal, made the 50 day moving average a likely target for the Dow. The expected profit-taking occurred. The NASDAQ closed above the 50 day moving average on Tuesday and formed a Bearish Harami on Wednesday. Expect some continued consolidation with the 50 day moving average possibly now acting as support for the NASDAQ.
9/5 - Stock Market Comments
The Dow closed right at the 50 day moving average on Monday. However, the NASDAQ started at the 50 day moving average and moved dramatically higher. This morning's weaker futures indicate the obvious resistance at the 50 day moving average in the Dow. Expect some consolidation in this area. Ever since the large Morning Star signal that formed on the 200 day moving average, the 50 day moving average has been a viable target. There should be some profit-taking in this area.