Long Term Investing with Candlestick Patterns
Long term investing in the stock market can be defined as the holding of a security for a minimum of 5 years, to as long as 30 years. This is a more rigid definition, although it is one of the more subjective stock investing concepts, depending on the individual.
Normally, long term investing provides a means for a person to make ends meet during retirement, with the idea that no one can successfully retire without financial freedom. So with this idea in mind, successful traders purchase securities with the intention of holding the security for an indefinite time period, adding to it through the years, and acquiring enough dividend income to offset the loss of income after retiring. There is also a desire to leave some money behind to loved ones to relieve their financial burdens as well.
So if a security is going to be held indefinitely, what long term investing criteria should you be looking for in that security to ensure the best investment of your money? Dividend income is certainly a given. And since there is no motivation to sell the security, capital gains may not be an issue.
So what should you be looking for in your long term investing portfolio? Purchasing securities simply for the dividend income isn't good enough. To improve your risk reward ratios, and to ensure that a company isn't participating in fraudulent activities, securities should be purchased from companies that have a long history of raising their dividend every year. This will eliminate the risk of investing in a start-up company that may not even be around in a year or so. After all, the money has to be there to pay the shareholder.
Also, the rising dividend every year would help offset the risk of inflation and the risk of a lower stock price during the year would actually accelerate any income from the security.
Since you would want your position in the stock to grow through the years, resulting in increasing dividends regardless of stock volatility, the dividends would be reinvested into the stock until retirement. Therefore, a lower stock price would purchase more shares at a higher dividend yield and would simply accelerate dividend income.
When would you want to sell a stock in your long term investing portfolio?
Times and reasons to sell stocks vary. If you eventually have too much money tied up in just one stock, and it’s making you uncomfortable because it conflicts with your overall stock trading plan, sell some of it. Or, a company may stop increasing its dividends consistently which may also motivate you to lighten up on your position or divert your funds elsewhere.
Also, a company may reduce their dividend. When and if this happens (and it does) do not be overly anxious to sell the stock. First, figure out why the company is reducing their dividend. It may be for debt reduction, acquisition possibilities, or for other money management reasons. Or, the company’s dividend yield may have been greater than the dividends paid by their peers. However, to be safe, do not add to your holdings in this company and give management a chance to see how they handle the extra cash, since they appear to have better use for the money other than paying their shareholders. The resulting growth in that company may make up for the lower dividend yield and a few years later you’ll get a better feel for whether to sell the stock, continue adding more shares, or simply to allow the dividends to continue purchasing the stock.
Market Direction: The indecisive signals that were formed in both the Dow and the NASDAQ over the past few days provide valuable information. What is occurring during the pullback? Indecision! The candlestick signals that were evident over the past few days consisted of a Hanging Man at the top in the NASDAQ. Confirmation selling the next day revealed that the uptrend was over. The same day, the Dow formed a Bearish Harami. It was confirmed the next day with lower trading. These signals occurred when both indexes were in the overbought condition . What should have been anticipated upon seeing these signals confirmed? That the uptrend was over. However, the indecision that has occurred following the sell signals, as can be seen with doji's and spinning tops, reveal that the selling is not being done with any great conviction.

The signals reveal valuable information. The overall trend of the Dow since mid-July has been a healthy uptrend. It came up through the 50 day moving average, pullback and supported on the 50 day moving average and started to move back up from there. After the latest up move, the pullback is not showing any strong conviction. What would be the logical target on a pullback? Currently the 20 day moving average would be a viable target. The NASDAQ could possibly pullback to the 50 day moving average. However, with the indecisive trading over the past four days, the stochastics have not shown any strong down turn.
Being able to witness the lack of great selling pressure, the candlestick analyst has the ability to anticipate what should happen in the next day or so. The Dow formed a doji pattern today. The rule of thumb is that a market trend will usually move in the direction of how they open prices the day after a doji. This makes the analysis relatively simple. A positive open on Friday would indicate that the Bulls are still participating in this market. The past four days may have just been profit taking during an uptrend. A lower open would signify that the bears are still participating in this downtrend. The moving averages become the logical targets.
The advantage of knowing candlestick signals allows the investor to project a trend direction with a much greater probability. Each signal indicates the degree of investor sentiment. Being able to identify what the investor sentiment is indicating, fine-tunes the trend analysis. The simple rules that can be applied to candlestick signals produces huge advantages. There are results that can be expected with a high degree of probability based upon candlestick signals. Click here for the 12 major signal training CD special.
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Good Investing,
The Candlestick Forum Staff

