Stock Volatility
When examining the stock chart patterns of hundreds of high quality, similarly profitable companies, you would notice that most move up and down regularly, if not predictably, with an upward long term bias, and that there is little, if any, similarity in the timing of the movements between the stocks themselves. This is the "stock volatility" that most people are afraid of and that Wall Street loves them to be afraid of.
It can encompass practically everything or be narrowly confined to certain sectors, it seems that either can be the case. The broader it becomes, the more likely it is to be classified as either a correction or a rally. Most of the time, there will be one or two of each in any particular year. This is considered normal in the stock market community. Don't take it for granted when it goes up, and pay close attention to it when it goes down. Learn to live with stock volatility in the uncertain times, work with them in whatever direction they move, and you may eventually tame the beast!
It may come as a surprise, but it is this natural stock volatility, caused by hundreds of variables political, economic, natural, or human greed and fear, that is actually the only real "certainty" that exists in the financial markets.
Call it foresight or hindsight if you want to argue the point, but a view of fundamental and technical analysis in the longer term removes any guesswork and indicates fairly clearly a trading mentality that keys on the natural stock volatility of hundreds of equities. During corrections, consider these simple facts:
1) Don't be in a rush to fill your portfolio, but if cash dries up before it's over, you are doing it "correctly".
2) Steep and fast corrections are better than the slow attrition variety.
3) Always accept even half your normal profit target while buying opportunities are plentiful.
4) When everything is down, don't worry so much about the price of individual holdings.
5) Although the sellers outnumber the buyers, the buyers intend to make money on their purchases.
Volatile markets create opportunities with every trend change, but you have to be willing to buy or sell to get the benefits. It is necessary as a first step to realize that both "up" and "down" markets are forces with great potential. A proper attitude about the "down" markets will make one appreciate the "up" markets even more. Most stock market strategies demand answers to unanswerable questions, with an attempt to be in the right place at the right time.
Uncertainty regarding decision-making isn't going to work. To be a successful trader, investment strategies require an understanding of the disciplined rules of portfolio and money management. Transitioning back to individual securities help you move toward your goals. Most of the time, the opportunities are out there. You just have to recognize them when you see them!
If you will learn to live with some new stock investing concepts for dealing with this investment game and its stock volatility, and can live in harmony with them for a few cycles, you will soon be buying good stocks, both old and new, at lower prices during corrections, and take reasonable profits on those that go up in price whenever you can. Also, as a change of pace, examine your performance based on the results of these trading transactions alone and during market cycle extremes.
If all of this is done correctly, and you adhere to a consistent stock market investing strategy, you could experience a paradigm shift where "stock volatility" equals "investment opportunity"!
Market Direction: - Summertime trading is usually much more difficult. As seen in the Dow and the NASDAQ chart, the trend has virtually been sideways. Trying to hold positions on a longer-term basis has been very difficult. Even the short-term trading has not produced tremendous results due to the choppy nature of the sideways trend. It becomes very difficult to utilize the information conveyed in candlestick signals when the markets do not show clear investor sentiment.
The summer months have historically been the worst time of year to produce profits in the markets. That is why the lazy days of summer are a good time to get away from the computer screens and rejuvenate the analysis processes. The best time to vacation from the markets is when everybody else is vacationing from the markets. Logic reveals that when there are many other activities going on, less investors will be participating in the markets. Although it is more difficult to make profits under these conditions, the candlestick signals, in conjunction with the moving averages, still provide some semblance of investment frameworks.
Candlestick signals were clearly evident at the recent bottoms. Candlestick signals also revealed investor sentiment at the major moving averages; at least this provided opportunities for very fast trades. As the summer gets near an end, the investment money will start coming back into the markets. The kids are back in school. After Labor Day, the weather makes it more conducive for investors to come back to the computer screens. The activity in the markets may be starting now though due to the fact that many schools start classes in mid to late August. Not like the old days when Labor Day weekend was the last weekend of the summer.
The Dow has had a fairly strong move after it came down and retested the 50 day moving average. Note the major indecisive signals that just touched the 50 day moving average area. The Dow demonstrated a hammer signal followed by an Inverted Hammer signal. Monday's trading produced a bearish Harami in the overbought conditions. The NASDAQ formed a doji after a hanging man signal in the overbought conditions. This indicates some toppiness in these markets. The fact that the trading on Monday was relatively indecisive, the current pullback may not have a strong selling conviction. Be prepared to take some profits in long positions that are showing sell signals. There are still sectors that are showing great weakness. Add some short positions in sectors such as the housing sector that are not showing any strength, strong sell indicators.
DOW

Weak sectors are providing good short positions. The Housing stocks are failing at important resistant levels.
BZH short

Usually after Labor Day weekend is when most of the trend moves in the market starts to pick up better directional information. Continue to watch for major reversal signals to indicate which direction the market will move once the investors get back to their desks.
Chat session- There will be a chat session tonight for the members at 8 p.m. Eastern time.
Good investing,
The Candlestick Forum staff

