Stock Market Risk - Should You Play Offense Or Defense?
Investing usually falls into one of two strategies: defensive and offensive. A defensive investing strategy looks to avoid stock market risk as it uses long term investing to post steady, consistent gains. Over time, defensive investing is the most likely to achieve its long-term objectives because its strict investing guidelines seek to virtually eliminate risk in the stock market.
The second strategy is quite different. It is offensive in nature, looking to capitalize on opportunities that miss the radar of conventional thought. Offensive investing ignores or minimizes stock market risk as it looks to make rapid gains. The concept of risk reward ratios is skewed since the investor’s view of risk has been reduced, making the rewards seem even greater than they really are.
We can put offensive investing in the form of an example. Some kids play a game called “punch out” (a game I do not recommend to anyone.) Two kids stand face to face. The first kid proceeds to punch the other fleshy part of the shoulder. Next, the second kid does the same to the first. This continues until one of the kids can’t or won’t continue anymore, making the other kid the “winner”. Sounds like a lot of fun, doesn’t it? Investing in the stock market without considering the risk is kind of like this game; you punch away at the stock market, ignoring the risk, hoping to “win”. Unfortunately, the stock market risks are bigger and stronger than most investors realize, leaving them defeated and bruised.
This entire topic falls back to your stock trading plan. When you got into investing, what strategy did you define? If it was to get rich quick, you might as well have put your money into the lottery. If your goal was to make money, then let’s talk about a couple of things. First, defensive investing doesn’t mean you won’t make money; defensive investing means you take calculated risk and typically lower gains to consistently make money. This is not putting your money in a savings account and accepting 1.5% interest. You will ALWAYS encounter stock market risk but you can minimize that risk while still finding excellent profits.
Consider this. Benjamin Graham is considered the “Dean of the Stock Market”. He wrote a book outlining defensive investing over 70 years ago and its principles are still used today. One of his students was Warren Buffett, arguably the most successful investor in the history of Wall Street. Warren Buffett was so impressed by Benjamin Graham and his teachings that he named one of his children after Graham. If those principles worked for one of the most successful traders on Wall Street, why wouldn’t they work for you?
Look, you can still have your thrills; every day in the stock market is risky. With a volatile monster like the market, you never know exactly what will happen. But there’s a good side to all of this; you can make money, a lot of money, with a conservative approach. Do your fundamental analysis on companies that catch your eye. Consider a stock market trading system like Japanese Candlesticks to chart companies and form buying plans based on your research. Diversify your portfolio; this is an excellent way to reducing your stock market risk. If you have equal investments in 20 companies and one is speculative, what happens? Well if you make a big profit, you’ve added to your portfolio. If you lose everything, it’s only a 5% drop in your overall stock portfolio, a loss you can easily regain.
Stock market risk will always be there. Instead of losing your money looking for the “big win”, use your money to make money. It’s better to follow your plan and win than to get “punched out!”
Market Direction: Everybody is waiting for a correction. Why? Because there is always going to be a correction after a market rally. Right? That may be the case but nobody seems to venture when that will occur. If you were not fully invested over the past six months anticipating a pullback, you would have missed out on some good percentage returns. Candlestick signals provide the information needed for keeping a portfolio invested at the optimal levels.
Is there going to be a correction? Could be. But candlestick analysis makes the identification of when that correction will occur much easier. This market is not any different than any other market conditions. There is still fear of a market correction. There is still talk of an economic slowdown. There are many reasons being bantered about that keeps investor sentiment from turn into a full-fledged exuberant bullish rally. Analyze what the trend in the Dow has been doing. Although it has moved up steadily, it has done so with consistent profit taking occurring during the uptrend.
DOW

What are the rules about a trend? The longer a trend persists, the more compelling the reversal signal needs to be. Click here for the Candlestick Forum Trading Rules e-book. If it can be analyzed that the market trend has not altered, investor sentiment has not changed, then the use of candlestick patterns becomes highly profitable. Everybody can make money in an uptrending market. Candlestick signals and patterns help identify which stocks have 'big' profit potential, more so than the market in general.
HTI is a clear example of the benefits of the long uptrending market. A Fry Pan Bottom is not only obvious but the Break Out has already confirmed the pattern. What is needed for the confirmation of a Fry Pan bottom? Strong buying coming out of the back end of the pattern. This makes for a very viable price move along the same magnitude as wave one, (from $3 to $8) starting in leg three. The potential upside target is now in the $12-$13 area.
HTI

This target is more viable as long as the markets in general do not show any tendency of a severe pullback. A 40% move is much more probable coming out of a recognized pattern versus the normal price move stocks in a general uptrending market. Use the patterns to your advantage. The point of investing is to maximize your returns with the knowledge that you can apply.
April seminar - Mr. Bigalow will demonstrate how to use the patterns in the candlestick signals to make big profits in the markets. Having the ability to identify patterns easily with candlestick signals will allow investors to participate in market trends with maximum potential for producing profits. Simple rules applied to these patterns help exploit big profits while minimizing downside risk. Reserve your spot early for the April training seminar.
Stephen Bigalow is conducting 2-Day Workshop Seminars for training as a Candlestick Analysis Technician - Level 1. The level 1 coursework unravels the mystery of reading financial charts and propels your investment expertise to the next level. This 2-Day workshop takes the confusion out of tedious chart interpretation and replaces it with a quick visual snapshot within seconds! It is not all work and no play at the seminars. We have a great time visiting during the evenings and everyone is included.
Stock chat session is this Thursday evening, February 15th at 8PM ET, open to everybody. Click here for instructions.
Candlestick Analysis Technician - Level 1
April 14 & 15, 2007 - Houston, TX
Candlestick Analysis Technician - Level 1 Download full Brochure
2-Day Workshop
For Seminar Description
Click Here
or
Register Now
or
Call 866-251-4015
to reserve your seat.

